Hi John. You know Friday was a huge huge day in the markets. A 25 basis point drop in two-year yields over a 20 basis point drop in 10ear yields.Look at the two-day chart. But yet look at the right side. We are hovering very close to unchanged.Two-year is mostly unchanged and the 10s are down a basis point and a half or so. I respectfully disagree with Muhammad because if there was an issue that was serious that was sparked by the big huge revision we had on Friday or the firing of a BLS person, we would se ...

us right now is Bill Ian. He is JP Morgan's asset management, chief investment officer uh of Absolute Return Fixed Income. Good morning. Morning, Andrew.To you as we try to figure Okay, before we even just get into the markets, do you want to weigh in on the power of it all. Yeah, I just Man, there's a guy that's getting kicked around a little bit right now. It's um it's it's interesting to watch.Um I you know, the position he's in is almost a no- win right now, right. Because I think the Fed honestly is tr ...

Market Trends & Uncertainty - Treasury yields are reacting to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future, independence, and potential changes in monetary policy [1] - PPI data was mixed, with cooler-than-expected figures offset by later revisions, suggesting minimal impact on the overall economic landscape [2] - A headline about Mr Trump firing Pal caused market fluctuations, but the market reaction suggests the story isn't being taken very seriously [3][7] Bond Market Reaction - The 30-year Treasury yield hovered around 5%, then moved up to 507 and a half after the headline [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield moved from 444 to 448 and a half, a 45 basis points increase [4] - The two-year Treasury yield moved down from 391 to 386, showing a different reaction compared to the 10-year and 30-year yields, possibly influenced by cooler-than-expected PPI [5] Currency Market - The dollar index initially broke down from 9870 to 9780, a move of slightly less than a full cent, but quickly bounced back, indicating speculative forces at play [6] Overall Market Sentiment - The market is anticipating continued rhetoric and pressure from the administration, but the impact on the Federal Reserve's actions remains uncertain [7]

Labor Market Analysis - Job vacancies significantly increased, reaching a 6-month high and exceeding forecasts [1] - The labor market isn't showing signs of weakening, remaining relatively stable [2][3] - There are 7769000 job openings [2] Bond Market Impact - Strength in the labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - Two-year and ten-year yields closed at their lowest levels since May 1st prior to Chairman Powell's comments [3] - Rate reversals occurred around 9:30 Eastern time following J Pal's headlines [4] - S&P Global PMIs and Jolts number contributed to upward volatility [4][5] - Major flattening observed, with two-year yields rising more sharply than 10 and 30-year yields [5][6] Currency and Equities - The dollar's performance mirrors the 10-year chart, turning around at the same time and moving higher [5] - Positive indicators for equities and potentially higher rates [2]

But yields are sinking today even as we're talking about the long-term fiscal sustainability of the US government. Maybe Rick Santelli who is back now can explain. Hi Rick. Hi.you know whether it's the month end quarter end halfyear end effects or just in general as the last guest Steve pointed out and so appropriately sometimes markets don't trade on fundamentals and on the interest rate side there has been a global propensity for lower rates but everything you said is true Kelly this administration's budg ...

We're looking at a market that seems to be pricing in more and more Fed rate cuts. We're thinking about maybe three pricing in two, of course, thinking about maybe we'll get to pricing in three and that's pushing futures higher a bit here in Europe and also in the United States. At how will the market deal with some sort of shadow Fed chair situation.Is that what we're looking at here. Well, first of all, we're already seeing the impact in terms of a softer dollar. We're seeing slightly softer yields.I don' ...

Investment Rating - The report raises the end-2025 US 10-year yield forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% previously, indicating a bullish outlook on US yields [1][6]. Core Views - The larger and faster de-escalation in US-China tariffs has reduced the downside risks for US growth, prompting a reassessment of yield forecasts [1][6]. - The report suggests that the combination of a smaller mechanical tariff headwind and a reversal in financial conditions supports higher long-term yields [6][31]. - The report maintains a bullish stance on Gilts, expecting a substantial rally at the 10-year point, with long-end risk premiums compressing compared to the US [1][6]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The US 10-year yield forecast has been revised up to 4.5% for year-end 2025, reflecting a reassessment of the US outlook due to tariff reductions [6][31]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a quarterly cadence of cuts starting in December, reaching a terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% by June 2026 [6][31]. - The report anticipates a steeper CAD curve due to a more supportive domestic fiscal backdrop and a revised 10-year yield forecast of 3.50% for Canada by year-end 2025 [13]. Europe - The report indicates that the risks around the European front-end have shifted, with expectations of two more ECB cuts, but a less accommodative path beyond that [14][20]. - The Bund yield forecast remains unchanged at 2.80% for end-2025 and 3.25% for end-2026, reflecting fiscal expectations [14][20]. - The report highlights that the German curve is influenced by risk sentiment and fiscal expectations, with a potential for fiscal expansion to support growth [14][20]. United Kingdom - The UK is showing progress in moving out of the "low-growth, high-inflation" quadrant, with improved fiscal credibility suggesting a better outlook for Gilt risk premia [20][31]. - The report recommends long 10-year Gilts versus USTs, with an entry point of 51 basis points and a target of 10 basis points [20][31]. Japan - The report revises the forecasts for 5-year and 10-year JGB yields up by 20 and 30 basis points, respectively, to 1.3% and 1.8% by end-2025, due to diminished recession risks [25][27]. - The BOJ's normalization cycle is expected to be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5% [31]. Global Outlook - The report emphasizes that global growth concerns will cap Gilt yields in the near term, but ongoing worries about supply and risk premiums remain hurdles [31]. - The report suggests that the macro backdrop of moderate growth and easing policy presents a favorable environment for harvesting vol carry in rates [10][31].