国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月7日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量21.2万吨（+0.7%），醚后商品量17.3万吨（+2.4%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏 紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担忧未来前景；此外，高价抑制买兴，买盘 热情不及上周，丙烷价格震荡整理 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 本周LPG观点：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 国产方面，液化气总商品量50.6万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量20.4万吨（+0.3%），醚后商品量17.4万吨（-1.6%）；当前， | | | 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量维持高位。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应偏紧；需求方面，亚洲 | | | 裂解极限进料叠加燃烧旺季来临，国际采购热情较高，买盘支撑周前期丙烷价格上行；成本传导则主要于周后期体现，原油大幅下挫带动丙烷 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Demand support is limited, and the futures price is over - valued. The market price of civil LPG has increased, while the import cost has decreased. There is a short - term downward drive for the futures price [3]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand have narrowed, and there is an expectation of a halt in price decline in the short term. The market price has been declining due to a loose supply - demand pattern, but there are signs of improvement in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The domestic spot price of civil LPG has increased, with an average increase of 30 - 95 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased by about 250 yuan/ton. The FEI discount has been adjusted slightly, and the freight has risen and then fallen [8][20]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The actual arrival volume of international ships this week is lower than expected, but it is expected to reach about 60 tons next week [3][59]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH and MTBE operating rates have increased slightly. The refinery inventory of civil LPG is at a neutral level year - on - year, with destocking mainly in the East and South China. The port inventory of imported LPG is at a relatively high level year - on - year, also with destocking [3][84][94]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The upstream cost has weakened, and the market price of propylene has declined. The international and domestic prices of propylene have both decreased, with the domestic price reaching a new low [105][109][117]. - **Balance Sheet** - The operating rates of some production processes such as PDH have increased slightly, while the operating rates of some downstream products such as PP powder have decreased. The overall supply and demand of propylene have narrowed [127][130][134].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term upward drivers are weakening, and macro risks still exist. The supply of domestic LPG has decreased, and the demand for civil use is recovering. The PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased. The prices in East and South China have declined, while Shandong's prices have rebounded after a fall. It is recommended to closely monitor macro - factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has slightly decreased this week, and the demand from downstream industries remains weak. Although the supply and demand are expected to increase next week, the pattern of loose supply and demand will not change. It is recommended to pay attention to PDH device shutdown dynamics and the propylene - powder price difference [7]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic spot prices: Shandong's civil gas prices have rebounded, while prices in other regions such as East and South China have declined. Imported gas prices and FEI, CP have first fallen and then risen, with a significant increase in FEI [10]. - Regional quotations, discounts, and freight: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East has continued to decline, and the freight from the United States to the Far East has stopped falling. The FEI discount has improved [24]. - Propane prices: They have rebounded from a low level [37]. - **Supply** - International shipping: The arrival of international ships in China has decreased compared to last week, mainly in South China, due to sea gales [3]. - Domestic production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 537,000 tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week. The propane commercial volume has decreased due to less - than - expected ship arrivals [60][70]. - Shipment volume: The shipment volumes of the United States, Canada, and the Middle East have changed to varying degrees, with overall decreases in some regions [47][48][49]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have increased [74]. - Domestic refinery inventory: The inventory of civil gas is at a relatively high level year - on - year, with limited changes this week [84]. - Port inventory: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, mainly with destocking on a month - on - month basis [89]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other upstream prices have increased, while some prices such as NAP in Shandong have decreased [100]. - Propylene prices: International/US - dollar prices have slightly corrected from a high level, and domestic prices have stopped falling and stabilized [103][111]. - Mid/upstream and downstream profits: Profits in various sectors have changed, with significant decreases in some sectors such as PDH [100][102]. - **Balance Sheet** - Operating rates: The operating rates of PDH and some downstream industries have increased, while the operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries have decreased [120]. - Supply and demand balance: The supply and demand of propylene are relatively loose, with expected increases in both supply and demand next week, but the loose pattern will not change [7].

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Short - term weak operation. Although PDH profit has improved significantly due to the weakening of propane, the current tense Sino - US trade relationship and strong market wait - and - see sentiment make it difficult to fully realize demand support. However, considering that the PG main contract has reached a new low and civil demand is gradually improving, the downward space is expected to be limited [3]. - **Propylene**: Demand is weakening, and it will run weakly in the short term. Next week, although the supply may shrink due to the expected maintenance of PDH devices, the demand will weaken as some PO and acrylic acid devices plan to stop for maintenance, so the upward momentum of prices is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: There are significant differences in the price changes of civil gas in different regions. The prices of Shandong, East China, and South China have changed by - 100, 21, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively on a weekly basis. For other LPG and basis, the prices of Shandong ether - after, East China import, and South China import have also changed, and the basis of civil gas in different regions has also shown different trends [7]. - **Regional Quotations, Premiums, and Freight**: The freight from the US to the Far East has decreased, the FEI premium has weakened, and there is an arbitrage space [18]. - **Propane Price**: It has weakened significantly [28]. Supply - **International Shipment**: The US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries' LPG shipment volumes have different degrees of changes. For example, the US - China propane shipment volume (weekly) MA4 has decreased by 1 compared with the previous period [38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The total LPG commodity volume is 54.3 tons (+0.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 21.8 tons (+1.0%), and the ether - after C4 commodity volume remains at a high level. The propane commodity volume has decreased, and the imported vessel arrivals have decreased by 6.7 tons [60][69]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have decreased slightly [73]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The ether - after inventory is at a high level, and the civil gas is accumulating inventory. The inventory of LPG refineries in different regions has different trends, such as the inventory of civil gas refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [82]. - **Terminal Imported Cargo Inventory**: The inventory in East China and Shandong has decreased from a high level, while the inventory in South China has increased slightly [92]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and other upstream products have decreased to varying degrees on a weekly basis. For example, Brent has decreased by 4.97 US dollars/bbl, with a weekly average change of - 4.73% [103]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has slightly corrected from a high level, and the domestic/Shandong market is relatively strong, while the East China price has declined, and the regional spread has widened [106][114]. - **Downstream Price/Profit**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as PP particles, PP powder, and PO have changed. For example, the price of PP particles has decreased by 63 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and the profit has decreased by 53 yuan/ton [105]. Balance Sheet - **Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 550 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 80.5%, an increase of 7.64% compared with the previous month. The supply from different sources such as main refineries, local refineries, and PDH devices has different degrees of changes [127]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is expected to be 544 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%, an increase of 5.95% compared with the previous month. The demand from downstream products such as polypropylene particles, polypropylene powder, and epoxy propane has different degrees of changes [128].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact: Zhao Shucen [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views LPG Part - Short - term support is not weak. Domestic supply has a slight increase, and import to - ship volume is expected to rise next week. Demand in the civil and chemical sectors is expected to strengthen [3]. - This week, civil gas prices showed different trends in different regions, and the FEI price of imported gas decreased slightly. Next week, import costs may increase, and the fundamentals may provide some support [4]. Propylene Part - Supply devices are gradually returning, and the market is expected to run weakly in the short - term, but there is still support at the bottom [5]. Group 4: Summary by Sections LPG Part - Price & Spread - This week, civil gas prices in East China declined slightly, those in Shandong rose slightly, and those in South China were relatively firm. Imported gas prices showed a narrow - range decline. The week - on - week changes in different regions varied [3][4][8]. - The US - Far East freight first remained stable and then declined, the FEI discount weakened, and the arbitrage space narrowed [20]. LPG Part - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 53.9 tons, a 0.1% increase week - on - week. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.1 tons, a 4.8% increase, while the ether - after carbon four commodity volume was 18.0 tons, a 1.6% decrease [3][64]. - The international ship - arrival volume decreased by 4.1 tons this week, mainly in East China, but it is expected to increase next week [3]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, the civil demand is strengthening, and the PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased [3]. - Refinery inventories in East China and South China showed different trends, and port inventories in South China decreased while those in East China and Shandong increased [80][95]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI increased slightly, and propylene prices in different regions and international markets showed a downward trend [106]. - The profits of different production methods in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different changes [106][108]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [127]. - From January to September 2025, the supply and demand of domestic propylene showed different changes in different months, and the balance volume also fluctuated [130][131].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply - demand situation lacks significant improvement. Domestic LPG prices are trending upward due to cost support from international prices and limited supply supplements. In the short - term, civil demand remains seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end - use demand is expected to have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to the change of import costs and PDH device dynamics [3]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene market price is trending upward, driven by supply - demand changes. In the short - term, price support remains, but there is a possibility of a decline from high levels due to the pressure on downstream profits and the expected return of major supply - releasing devices in mid - to early September [5]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG market prices have generally increased. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Shandong ether - post LPG increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][15]. - The congestion in the Panama Canal has eased, and the freight from the US to the Far East has slightly decreased from its high level [16]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commercial volume is 54.8 tons, a 3.0% increase week - on - week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 21.5 tons (+1.0%), and the commercial volume of ether - post C4 is 17.5 tons (+0.2%) [3][70]. - The LPG shipments from the US and the Middle East to China have decreased, while the Canadian shipments are relatively stable. The number of international ship arrivals in China has increased by 2.7 tons week - on - week, mainly in East China [3]. - **Demand & Inventory** - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate decreased by 2.6% to 73.0% this week, and the MTBE operating rate remained unchanged from last week [3][84]. - Civil gas inventories have slightly decreased, while ether - post C4 inventories have increased. The LPG terminal inventory in South China (excluding Fujian) has increased, while the inventories in other regions have decreased [95][105]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The operating rates of some propylene production and consumption devices have changed. For example, the operating rate of domestic PDH decreased by 2.6%, and the operating rates of some downstream devices such as Jingbo's PP and Shandong Hongxin's acrylic acid have changed [4][116]. - Propylene prices are trending upward. The prices of domestic propylene in Shandong, East China, and other regions have increased to varying degrees week - on - week [5][131]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the national propylene balance sheet, the supply and demand situation shows certain monthly changes. In August 2025, the total propylene production was 528 tons, and the total demand was 535 tons, with a balance of 13 tons [137][142].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.208 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.023 billion yuan, down 83.34% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 0.022 billion yuan, down 82.14% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.10% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.29% [2][6] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.018 billion yuan, down 83.38% year-on-year but up 228.72% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on deep processing of C4 raw materials, forming four product lines including butene, isobutylene, butane, and isobutane, with major products like methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, MMA, and nitrile latex [6] - The company is the largest producer of methyl ethyl ketone in the world, holding a market share of approximately 70% in China [6] Industry Analysis - The C4 industry is experiencing a phase of capacity expansion, with the domestic butanone industry entering a growth period from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its location in Shandong, which has abundant refining resources [6] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 0.32 billion yuan, 0.76 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 45.4 times, 19.1 times, and 12.0 times based on the closing price on August 22, 2025 [6] Market Conditions - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material prices, which will alleviate cost pressures and improve operating conditions [6] - Despite global trade tensions impacting end-demand, the alleviation of cost pressures is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in operational performance [6]