国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年8月31日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：供需缺乏明显改善，关注进口成本变动 | | 国产方面，液化气总商品量54.8万吨，较上周环比增加3.0%；其中，民用气商品量21.5万吨（+1.0%），醚后商品量17.5万吨（+0.2%）；当前， | | --- | --- | | | 国内民用气商品量略低于24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量维持高位水平。进口方面，远东市场需求良好，FEI贴水相对稳定；叠加CP官价出 | | 供应 | 台在即，市场观望氛围较浓，发运量有所减少，给予进口成本一定支撑。本周Kpler口径美 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.208 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.023 billion yuan, down 83.34% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 0.022 billion yuan, down 82.14% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.10% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.29% [2][6] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.018 billion yuan, down 83.38% year-on-year but up 228.72% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on deep processing of C4 raw materials, forming four product lines including butene, isobutylene, butane, and isobutane, with major products like methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, MMA, and nitrile latex [6] - The company is the largest producer of methyl ethyl ketone in the world, holding a market share of approximately 70% in China [6] Industry Analysis - The C4 industry is experiencing a phase of capacity expansion, with the domestic butanone industry entering a growth period from 2020 to 2024 [6] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its location in Shandong, which has abundant refining resources [6] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 0.32 billion yuan, 0.76 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 45.4 times, 19.1 times, and 12.0 times based on the closing price on August 22, 2025 [6] Market Conditions - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material prices, which will alleviate cost pressures and improve operating conditions [6] - Despite global trade tensions impacting end-demand, the alleviation of cost pressures is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in operational performance [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views LPG Section - Short - term valuation is reasonable, and the market will move in a range. Domestic civil gas supply and demand remain loose, with prices showing weak and narrow fluctuations. Ether - post C4 prices are in an upward - trending pattern. In the next week, civil demand will remain seasonally weak, and the short - term boost to the overall chemical end's operating rate is limited [3]. Propylene Section - Supply and demand are tightening, and prices have certain support. Although the supply will increase after the restart of some devices, there is still a large supply - demand gap in Shandong in August and September, and price support is expected to remain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part - Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices: Except for Shandong domestic gas, the price centers have all been adjusted upwards. For example, the prices of East China and South China civil gas and imported gas have increased to varying degrees [7][10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: The Panama Canal has slow passage, resulting in high freight rates; FEI discounts have narrowed; the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East has improved compared to last week [19]. - Propane prices: Some propane price indices have changed, such as the AFEI index increasing by 2.39% to 524.00 USD/t [32]. LPG Part - Supply - US propane shipments: Shipments to Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased on a week - on - week basis. Shipments to China this week are 50,000 tons, and Kpler statistics show that next week's shipments will increase significantly [3][45]. - Canadian propane shipments: There is no significant change in shipments [46]. - Middle East LPG shipments: Overall shipments have decreased compared to last week, and shipments to India have declined from a high level, while shipments to China have decreased [47][53]. - Imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea: India's imports have increased, while China's imports have declined [60]. - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 521,000 tons (-1.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 216,000 tons (-0.6%) [3][61]. - Propane commodity volume: China's propane supply this week is 62,690 tons, a 10.35% week - on - week increase. Domestic refinery commodity volume has decreased by 2.66%, and the international ship arrival volume is 583,000 tons [75]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased, while MTBE operating rate has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of increase [78]. - LPG domestic refinery inventory: The week - on - week change is small [82]. - LPG terminal imported cargo inventory: Shandong and South China (excluding Fujian) have accumulated inventory, while other regions have reduced inventory [96]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry has changed slightly. For example, the operating rate of PDH has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 76.33% [107]. - Propylene industry chain prices: Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI have slightly decreased; propylene prices in different regions have different trends, with Shandong prices first rising and then falling, and East China prices rising slightly [110]. - Propylene industry chain profits: Some profit indicators have changed, such as MTO profit increasing by 75 yuan/ton to - 304 yuan/ton [4]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - Propylene national balance sheet - Supply: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 524,000 tons, with a 4.01% increase in the weighted operating rate [129]. - Propylene national balance sheet - Demand: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is 524,000 tons, with a - 0.22% change in the weighted operating rate [130].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Satellite Chemical, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in ethane prices, which may help restore profitability in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain and enhancing its facilities, with significant investments in high-value products [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.72% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 2.35 percentage points to 19.33%, and the net profit margin fell by 2.16 percentage points to 10.55% [8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.0%, 10.5%, 9.6%, and 23.0% for the years 2024 to 2027, respectively [4]. Price Target and Valuation - The target price for Satellite Chemical is set at 23.04 yuan, based on a relative valuation method using a 12x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]. - The current market price is 18.63 yuan, indicating potential upside [4]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the ethane supply is returning to normal, which may lead to a more favorable cost structure for the company [8]. - The company is also expected to benefit from the completion of its alpha-olefins project, which has a total investment of 26.6 billion yuan [8].

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Import costs are decreasing, and prices are weakly oscillating. Domestic civil gas supply and demand are both weak, and the overall price is fluctuating weakly. Ether C4 prices are oscillating, and the overall chemical industry's start - up is expected to have limited short - term boost. [3] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are under pressure and weak. Although the supply - demand gap may narrow further, it is difficult to drive price increases. The supply - demand pressure may ease from late August to September, and prices may turn around. [4] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices in various regions have decreased. For example, from July 25 to August 1, Shandong civil gas decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and South China imported gas decreased by 120 yuan/ton. [8][15] - CP prices were released lower, and FEI discounts narrowed and then decreased again. [16] Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly, while shipments to China decreased significantly. [26] - Middle East LPG shipments decreased significantly, and shipments to China, India, and Southeast Asia all decreased. [34][40] - China's LPG total commodity volume was 52.7 million tons (+0.3%), with civil gas at 21.0 million tons (-0.0%). Propane imports increased by 22.5 million tons. [50][59] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH decreased slightly, and MTBE's operating rate decreased for the first time after 8 consecutive weeks of increase. [65] - LPG refinery inventories: Some regions decreased, such as East China's civil gas refinery inventory decreased from 18.43 million tons to 18.08 million tons. [68] - LPG terminal import inventories: East China and Fujian reduced inventories, while other regions' terminals increased inventories. [78] Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent rose by 1.13 dollars/bbl, and WTI rose by 2.19 dollars/bbl week - on - week. [89] - Propylene prices: Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 35, 125, and 100 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week. [89] - Downstream prices/profits: Some products' prices and profits changed, such as PP powder profit in East China increased by 105 yuan/ton. [91] Balance Sheet - **National Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene production was 529 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%. [105] - **National Balance Sheet - Demand**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand was 526 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.0%. [108] - **Shandong Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, Shandong's total propylene production was 90 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 64.0%. [112]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 | 供应 | 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.5万吨，较上周持平；其中，民用气商品量21.0万吨（-0.2%），醚后商品量17.6万吨（+0.5%）；当前，国 内民用气商品量处于历史低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量则处于高位水平。进口方面，本周国际船到港量较上周环比减少31.7%至35.9万吨； | | --- | --- | | | 丙烷进口到船明显减少。成本端，国际丙烷价格走弱后,于周尾小幅反弹，FEI丙烷仍处于深贴水状态，市场情绪由供应压力主导。 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Donghua Energy Co., Ltd. maintains a long-term credit rating of AA+ with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong debt repayment capacity despite facing operational and financial risks [1][3]. Company Overview - Donghua Energy specializes in the sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and the production of chemical products, leveraging its long-standing experience in LPG international trade and distribution [3][9]. - As of March 2025, the company has a total asset value of 417.63 billion yuan and equity of 130.85 billion yuan [10]. Financial Performance - The company expects a slight increase in total operating revenue in 2024, driven by higher sales volumes of propylene and polypropylene, with projected revenue of 309.38 billion yuan [10][17]. - The net cash flow from operating activities has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 80.07% [6][10]. - The company’s debt burden is substantial, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.67% and a high proportion of restricted assets at 44.54% [6][10]. Production Capacity and Utilization - As of March 2025, the company has a propylene production capacity of 2.4 million tons per year and a polypropylene capacity of 2 million tons per year, with utilization rates exceeding 100% [5][22]. - The company’s production and sales models for propylene and polypropylene have remained stable, with high production efficiency [22]. Market and Industry Environment - The chemical industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with revenue growth not translating into profit increases, and the overall debt burden in the sector is rising [12]. - The company faces challenges from volatile raw material prices and global tariff policies affecting the stability of its raw material supply [5][12]. Related Transactions and Risks - The company has significant related-party transactions, with Masen Energy being its largest customer, accounting for 43.53% of LPG sales revenue in 2024 [21]. - The company’s profitability is under pressure due to the narrow profit margins in its chemical operations, with a projected gross margin of only 4.69% for 2024 [6][17].