Report Overview - **Report Title**: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 8, 2026 - **Author**: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views LPG - Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental drivers are downward. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and the medium - to long - term drivers are downward [3]. Propylene - The fundamentals remain tight, but the upward driving force is weakening. The spot price of propylene is expected to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot and basis/USD cost trends are firm, domestic civil prices are slightly adjusted, and ether - after prices have weakened significantly. International propane prices have fluctuated, and freight rates remain high [7]. Supply - Total domestic LPG commodity volume is 549,000 tons (+0.9%), civil gas is 225,000 tons (-2.8%), and ether - after is 180,000 tons (+6.1%). US, Canadian, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments have different trends, and China's propane supply has increased [33][67][78]. Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rate has slightly increased, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level, civil gas is de - stocking, ether - after is accumulating inventory, and terminal inventory is mainly accumulating [79]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong; in the second quarter, supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [114]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propane buying support is strong, PDH costs have further increased, and propylene prices have adjusted narrowly. The upstream and downstream prices of the propylene industry chain have changed, and the import window remains closed [115][117]. Balance Sheet - Supply has increased and demand has decreased this week. In January and February, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, and it is expected to be looser in March [135][157]. Supply - Weekly propylene output is 1.17 million tons (+19,000), and the operating rate is 72% (+1.2%). Refinery, cracking, PDH, and MTO operating rates have different changes [161][163]. Demand - The operating rates of propylene downstream products such as PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, etc. have changed, and the profits of some products have been compressed [201]. Downstream Inventory - PP and related powder inventories, as well as other downstream inventories such as acrylonitrile and phenol, have different changes [284].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - **Balance Sheet** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - **Supply** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - **Demand** - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views LPG - Short - term: The market is strongly influenced by geopolitical dynamics, with a positive sentiment. The supply is temporarily tight due to factors like port weather and geopolitical concerns, while demand remains firm with rigid support from combustion demand. - Medium - to - long - term: As Middle - East maintenance ends and the impact of US fog weakens, supply is expected to recover. With the PDH in deep losses, the demand growth is limited, leading to a downward - trending market [3][4]. Propylene - Next week: The propylene market will remain in a tight - balance situation. Although the upward momentum may slow down due to the compression of downstream profit margins, the strong demand from PO, butanol, etc., will keep the price from falling easily [6]. 3. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - International propane prices show a strong upward trend, with the FEI and CP indices rising. The domestic LPG price has a mixed performance, with the central price of civil gas falling and the price of ether - post - C4 relatively stable. The lowest deliverable product has changed to East - China civil gas [9][12]. Supply - Domestic LPG production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 529,000 tons, a 2.1% increase from last week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 228,000 tons (+5.8%), and the commercial volume of ether - post - C4 is 164,000 tons (-1.7%). - International supply: US LPG shipments to Asia have increased, while Middle - East shipments are tight [38][47][58]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: The PDH operating rate has dropped significantly to 62% (-11%), while the MTBE operating rate has slightly improved. - Inventory: The refinery inventory of LPG is at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025. The port inventory shows different trends, with inventory accumulation in South - China and Shandong ports and inventory reduction in East - China ports [73][74][96]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, as the supply returns to normal and production capacity increases, the tight - supply situation is expected to ease [107]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other prices have changed slightly. Propane prices have risen, and the profit margins of PDH and other processes have been further compressed. - Propylene prices: International and domestic prices have generally increased, and the import window is partially open. - Downstream prices and profits: The prices and profit margins of different downstream products show different trends, with some products' profit margins being compressed and some showing improvement [110][113][123]. Balance Sheet - Supply: Due to the maintenance of PDH and MTO units, the supply has gradually tightened. - Demand: Driven by policies, the PO procurement demand remains strong. In January, the market is in a tight - balance state, and in mid - to - late February, the supply - demand situation may become more relaxed [154]. Supply - Overall upstream operating rate: It is 71.4% (-3.8%). The operating rate of refineries has changed slightly, with the main - refinery operating rate increasing to 78% and the local - refinery operating rate slightly decreasing to 54%. The operating rate of PDH has dropped significantly to 62.3% (-10.8%), and the profit has been further compressed. The operating rate of MTO has decreased to 84.3% (-1.5%) [165][185][191]. Demand - PP: The operating rate is 76.0% (+0.4%), and the profit margins of different production processes show different trends. Some units are expected to restart next week, which may increase the operating rate. - PP powder: The operating rate is 30.7% (-0.8%), and the profit margin has slightly improved. - PO: The operating rate is 73.0% (+0.5%), and the profit margin has decreased significantly. - Acrylonitrile: The operating rate is 74.7% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has slightly decreased. - Acrylic acid: The operating rate is 81.6% (-0.5%), and the profit margin has slightly increased. - Butanol: The operating rate is 87.5% (0.1%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Octanol: The operating rate is 96.0% (+2.0%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Phenol - acetone: The operating rate is 85.5% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has decreased. - ECH: The operating rate is 58.05% (+4.30%), and the profit margin and price have increased [206][226][239]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder: The inventory of PP production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of traders and powder has slightly decreased. - Other downstream products: The inventory of acrylonitrile, phenol, and other products shows different trends [294][296].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The domestic PG fluctuates widely in the short term, affected by geopolitical factors. Supply pressure may emerge later, and downward drivers are gradually appearing, but geopolitical situations and PDH device feedback need to be closely monitored [3][4]. - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong. Next week, with the reduction in supply and the increase in demand, there is still upward potential for propylene [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain high - level fluctuations, with significant increases in civil and imported gas prices and a further decline in ether - post prices. Propane prices are oscillating strongly, Asian spot premiums are rising further, CP FOB premiums are falling, and freight rates are increasing [8][12][21][23]. - **Supply** - Domestic LPG production shows a decrease, with a total commodity volume of 518,000 tons (-1.1%). US LPG shipments to Asia are increasing month - on - month, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments are recovering [3][33][35]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand shows a slight increase in PDH operating rates and a slight decline in MTBE operating rates. Domestic LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, civil gas refinery inventories have small month - on - month changes, and terminal import inventories show destocking in East China and Shandong and inventory accumulation in South China [63][65][86]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The cost - side propane is firm, propylene prices stabilize and then rebound, and PDH profits are oscillating and recovering. Downstream trends are improving further, and profits are being repaired. International/US - dollar prices are rising slightly month - on - month, the import window remains closed but the inversion is narrowing, and domestic prices are weakly operating [98][100][102][112]. - **Balance Sheet** - PDH operating rates are increasing month - on - month, powder production operating rates are further declining, and butanol and octanol operating rates are increasing significantly. Supply is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance of some devices, while demand is expected to increase, with some downstream devices having restart and load - increasing plans [123][148]. - **Supply** - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 76.0% (+1.1%). Refinery/main - plant operating rates are slightly increasing to 77%, cracking/ethylene cracking operating rates are 83.5% (-0.1%), PDH capacity utilization is 75.6% (+0.5%), and MTO capacity utilization is 88.1% (+0.6%) [152][161][167][172]. - **Demand** - PP capacity utilization is 75.5% (-1.3%), PP powder capacity utilization is 37.4% (-1.2%), PO capacity utilization is 73.7% (+0.1%), acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 78.8% (+0.5%), acrylic acid capacity utilization is 86.7% (+3.6%), n - butanol capacity utilization is 83.1% (+2.1%), octanol capacity utilization is 89.0% (+7.0%), phenol - ketone capacity utilization is 85.5% (+4.5%), and ECH capacity utilization is 49.27% (-0.67%) [189][212][224][236][240][250][255][260][268]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventories and powder inventories show different trends, with production enterprise inventories decreasing and powder inventories increasing. Inventories of other downstream products such as phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile also have corresponding changes [273][277][278].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly C3 industry chain report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated December 21, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG - Short - term trend is weak. Supply increases slightly while demand remains mixed. Long - term, the propane market is expected to be looser in 2026, with downward pressure on prices [3][4] Propylene - There are expectations of reduced supply and increased demand in the short - term, providing support for the price. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound [6] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices show regional differentiation, with import costs weakening. Propane prices are weak this week. The propane internal - external price spread has been quickly restored and is currently at a relatively high level year - on - year [9][35] Supply - US LPG shipments are relatively stable, while Middle East LPG shipments are tight with delays. The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.8 tons (+0.8%), with civil gas at 21.8 tons (-0.3%). The propane supply in China is 53.55 tons, a 18.08% week - on - week decrease [45][52][67] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH and MTBE operating rates have both increased. LPG inventory is generally lower year - on - year, and there has been destocking this week at refineries and ports [82][84][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The upstream cost of propane has weakened, and propylene prices have declined from stable. PDH profits have improved significantly week - on - week. Downstream prices are generally weak, with PP profits showing some repair and PO and butanol - octanol profits declining [111][113] Balance Sheet - Supply: PDH is deeply in the red, but the willingness to shut down is currently limited. The operating rate is expected to remain at a medium - high level in December and decline in the first quarter. Demand: The powder - propylene price spread has improved, but PP powder external procurement plants remain shut down due to losses. Overall, the propylene supply - demand pressure in Shandong is still high in December and is expected to improve in January [134][157] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 74.1% (-0.1%). Refinery operations are relatively stable, ethylene cracking operating rates have decreased slightly, PDH operating rates have increased by 2.1% to 75.0%, and MTO operating rates have decreased slightly to 89.5% [164][181][187] Demand - PP operating rate is 79.4% (+1.1%), but profits continue to decline. PP powder operating rate is 36.9% (-2.6%), and the powder - propylene price spread has improved, yet plants remain shut down. PO operating rate is 76.1% (+0.3%), acrylonitrile operating rate remains flat at 80.6%, acrylic acid operating rate is 79.4% (-0.3%), n - butanol operating rate is 67.8% (+9.3%), octanol operating rate is 82.0% (+5.0%), phenol - ketone operating rate is 76.0% (-3.5%), and ECH operating rate is 48.4% (+0.9%) [202][218][227] Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventories show little change. Inventories of other downstream products such as phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile also have minor fluctuations [280][290][291]

Report Information - Report Title: "Profit Rebalancing under Rhythm Game - Outlook for LPG & Propylene Futures Market in 2026" [1] - Report Date: December 18, 2025 - Analysts: Chen Xinchao (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020238), Zhao Shucen (Contact Person, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F03147780) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression in 2025 to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations in 2026. The propane price center is likely to remain relatively low, providing weak cost - side support for the C3 industrial chain. Meanwhile, with the slowdown of propylene capacity expansion and the continued drive from downstream sectors, the supply - demand outlook for propylene is expected to improve marginally, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of new plant construction under the low - profit background. The opportunities in the industrial chain mainly lie in periodic repairs rather than a trend reversal [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. 2025 LPG, Propylene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 LPG Market Review - The LPG market in 2025 can be divided into four stages: In the first quarter, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The spot price of the lowest deliverable product in the domestic market was around 4,800 - 4,900 CNY/ton, and the market fluctuated widely with costs. From April to May, affected by tariff policies, the external market price of crude oil and FEI market prices plummeted, and then rebounded. The domestic market was weak due to high inventory and low demand. From June to September, with the shift of the import trade center to the Middle East, the supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and the market was under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the CP price dropped, PDH profit was briefly repaired, and the chemical demand increased. The supply - demand situation improved, but the long - term supply was still loose [8][9]. 3.1.2 2025 Propylene Market Review - The propylene market in 2025 also had three stages: In the first quarter, new capacity led to an oversupply situation, and the price declined. From June to August, due to the shutdown of main production plants and maintenance of multiple devices, the supply tightened, and the price rebounded, but the sustainability was limited due to weak downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, the downstream profit was compressed, demand weakened, and the price dropped to a five - year low [11][13][14]. 3.2. 2026 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 Supply Side - In 2025, China's LPG imports remained stable, but the import structure changed significantly. After the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies in April, the import from the Middle East increased, while that from the US decreased. In 2026, the Middle East's LPG supply has an expected increase, with the main increment concentrated in the second half of the year. The US production growth is expected to slow down, but the export capacity will improve [15][18][34]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The growth of PDH capacity will further slow down in 2026, and the profit is expected to be repaired. The average operating rate of PDH is expected to increase, driving an additional propane demand of about 2 million tons. The demand for imported propane from domestic cracking plants is expected to remain weak. The propane demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to remain stable, and the growth rate of India's propane demand is expected to slow down, while Southeast Asia's demand may continue to be supported by the operation of existing cracking plants [41][44][52]. 3.2.3 LPG Summary - The supply - demand pattern of propane in 2026 shows a characteristic of "tight at the beginning and loose later, gradually becoming looser". In the first quarter, the supply is relatively tight, but better than in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition period. In the second half of the year, with the release of new capacity in the Middle East, the supply - demand pattern will become looser [57]. 3.3. 2026 Propylene Operating Logic 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2025, the propylene supply expanded rapidly, and the over - supply situation intensified. In 2026, the growth rate of propylene capacity is expected to slow down to about 9%. The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and most of the new capacity comes from integrated plants. The supply is still expected to be loose, and the focus will shift to the risks of structural and rhythm mismatches [59][67]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for propylene from major downstream sectors increased by 15%. In 2026, the nominal demand growth rate is about 11%, mainly from polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol - octanol. However, due to the over - capacity in the downstream and compressed profits, the actual demand may be less than the nominal demand [69][75]. 3.3.3 Propylene Summary - In 2025, the propylene market in Shandong was generally in a state of over - supply, with a brief tightening in the middle of the year. In 2026, the upstream and downstream production schedules of propylene show a structural characteristic of "downstream first, more downstream production throughout the year". Nationally, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the first half of the year, and the overall pattern will remain stable in the second half of the year. In Shandong, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve gradually, with a possible improvement in the second half of the year [87][89]. 3.4. Overall Summary - In 2025, the global propane supply was abundant, and the price decreased. The propylene market was in an over - supply situation, and the C3 industrial chain was under pressure. In 2026, the propane price is expected to stay low, and the supply - demand situation of propylene is expected to improve marginally. The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations [95][96].

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints LPG Part - Short - term demand is strong, but long - term demand is under pressure. Combustion demand is supported by the arrival of the peak season, and chemical demand remains high despite deep losses in PDH. However, the supply situation in the Middle East is expected to ease, and North American supply may increase, putting downward pressure on the medium - term trend [3][4]. Propylene Part - There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. Next week, the supply will increase as restarted devices gradually increase their loads, while demand is weak, and the tight supply - demand situation in Shandong is expected to ease [7]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis: Civil gas prices in various regions have changed to varying degrees, with the basis widening. The prices of other LPG types and their basis have also shown different trends [10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: Asian demand is stable, and the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East has narrowed [22]. - Propane prices: The prices of AFEI, Propane CP M1, and Propane MB have all fluctuated to some extent [32][33][34]. Supply - US propane shipments have increased month - on - month, and Asian buying interest is high. Canadian propane shipments have also changed. Middle East LPG shipments are in short supply, and shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.7 million tons (- 0.9%), and the propane commodity volume has decreased by 55,000 tons in terms of import arrivals [40][48][49][70][79]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. Domestic LPG refinery inventory is lower than the same period last year, civil gas refinery inventory has decreased, and LPG terminal import cargo inventory has decreased overall [84][86]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propylene industrial chain prices: Propane costs are in a consolidation range, propylene prices are relatively strong driven by demand, and PDH profits are relatively stable month - on - month. PP powder and pellet trends are in a narrow range, PO prices are strong, and butanol and octanol profits have improved significantly [117][119]. - Propylene prices: International/US dollar prices have increased slightly, and domestic prices are in a consolidation range driven by demand [121][129]. Balance Sheet - Propylene industrial chain operating rates: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of various production methods and downstream products have changed to different degrees [139]. - National propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand situation has changed monthly, and the balance in December shows that the supply - demand pressure in the Shandong market is still high, maintaining a weak outlook [141][158]. - Shandong propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand in Shandong have changed monthly, and the current situation shows that the supply - demand pressure is relatively high [150][153]. Supply - Overall upstream propylene operating rate is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of refineries, cracking units, PDH, and MTO have all changed. Some major PDH and MTO devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting, and some are planning to shut down [169][185][191]. - Propylene imports and exports: The import arbitrage space has been repaired [201]. Demand - Downstream propylene: The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH have all changed. Some major devices have started, stopped, or adjusted their loads [204][221][230][243][248][257][263][267][278]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventory: The inventories of PP producers, traders, and ports, as well as PP powder inventory, have all changed to some extent [282]. - Other downstream inventories: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc., in warehouses have also shown different trends [292][293][295].

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: November 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Xinchao - Company: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Viewpoints LPG Part - **Supply**: Domestic LPG production decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 506,000 tons, while international market supply was tight in the Middle East and US propane inventory declined. The actual arrival volume of international ships in China met expectations, and the planned arrival volume is expected to increase next week [3]. - **Demand**: Civilian demand increased due to lower temperatures, but chemical demand decreased as PDH and MTBE operating rates declined. The market price of civilian gas decreased due to increased supply and lower crude oil prices, while imported gas prices first rose and then fell [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, winter combustion demand will support propane prices, but the deep losses of PDH plants and the possible delay of restart plans will limit the upside space of propane. The market is waiting for the release of the December CP official price [3]. Propylene Part - **Supply**: The domestic propylene market supply tightened slightly, with weekly production decreasing by 11,000 tons to 1.215 million tons and the overall capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.7% to 73.5%. PDH operating rates decreased by 2% to around 70% [4]. - **Demand**: Propylene prices first rose and then stabilized, driven by demand. In the early part of the week, downstream plants resumed operation, providing demand support, but in the later part, high propylene prices compressed downstream profits, leading to a decrease in procurement enthusiasm [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, propylene prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. If PP continues to be weak, propylene prices may be under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: The price of civilian gas decreased, while the import cost first rose and then fell. The basis of civilian gas and imported gas also changed [7]. - **Regional Quotations, Discounts, and Freight**: The Middle East spot market was tight, the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East expanded, and freight rates remained stable [15]. - **Propane Price**: The supply of propane in December was tight, and the market price first rose and then fell [24]. Supply - **US Propane Shipment**: The shipment volume decreased slightly week-on-week, but Asian buying interest was high [38]. - **Canadian Propane Shipment**: The shipment volume increased slightly [39]. - **Middle East LPG Shipment**: The shipment volume decreased week-on-week [46]. - **LPG Commodity Volume**: The total LPG commodity volume was 506,000 tons (-0.9%), and the civilian gas commodity volume was 204,000 tons (+0.3%) [63]. - **Propane Commodity Volume**: The import arrival volume increased by 50,000 tons [72]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE decreased [77]. - **LPG Refinery Inventory**: The inventory was neutral year-on-year, with significant inventory accumulation in South China [95]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Propylene Industry Chain Price**: The cost support was weak, but the supply and demand tightened, and propylene prices were strong. The upstream profits improved week-on-week [106]. - **Propylene Price**: International and US dollar prices remained stable, while domestic prices were strong due to tightened supply and demand [111][119]. Balance Sheet - **Propylene National Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand changes were limited, and the inventory decreased slightly [132]. - **Propylene Shandong Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand changes were also limited, and the inventory decreased slightly [141]. Supply - **Propylene Upstream Overall Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate was 73.5% (-0.7%) [156]. - **Propylene Upstream - Refinery/Principal Operating Rate**: The principal refinery operating rate decreased to 76%, and the profit was at a high level year-on-year. The independent refinery operating rate and profit were similar to those in 2024 [158]. - **Propylene Upstream - Cracking/Ethylene Cracking**: The ethylene cracking operating rate was 81.8% (-0.3%), and the cracking profit remained low [167]. - **Propylene Upstream - PDH**: The capacity utilization rate was 69.6% (-2.1%) [172]. - **Propylene Upstream - MTO**: The capacity utilization rate was 89.7% (+0.4%) [178]. - **Propylene Import and Export**: The import arbitrage space remained closed, but improved week-on-week [186]. Demand - **Propylene Downstream - PP**: The capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-1.3%), and the PDH production profit decreased week-on-week, while the profits of other plants improved [189][194]. - **Propylene Downstream - PP Powder**: The capacity utilization rate was 46.6% (+3.0%) [204]. - **Propylene Downstream - PO**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.2% (+0.3%) [214]. - **Propylene Downstream - Acrylonitrile**: The capacity utilization rate was 79.7% (+0.8%) [227]. - **Propylene Downstream - Acrylic Acid**: The capacity utilization rate was 73.0% (+0.9%) [232]. - **Propylene Downstream - n-Butanol**: The capacity utilization rate was 81.6% (-2.1%) [240]. - **Propylene Downstream - Octanol**: The capacity utilization rate was 77.0% (+8.0%) [247]. - **Propylene Downstream - Phenol-Ketone**: The capacity utilization rate was 79.0% (+12.0%) [251]. - **Propylene Downstream - ECH**: The capacity utilization rate was 47.57% (+4.87%) [260]. Downstream Inventory - **PP and PP Powder Inventory**: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased [264]. - **Other Downstream Inventory**: The inventory of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc. also changed [275][276].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Demand support is limited, and the futures price is over - valued. The market price of civil LPG has increased, while the import cost has decreased. There is a short - term downward drive for the futures price [3]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand have narrowed, and there is an expectation of a halt in price decline in the short term. The market price has been declining due to a loose supply - demand pattern, but there are signs of improvement in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The domestic spot price of civil LPG has increased, with an average increase of 30 - 95 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased by about 250 yuan/ton. The FEI discount has been adjusted slightly, and the freight has risen and then fallen [8][20]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The actual arrival volume of international ships this week is lower than expected, but it is expected to reach about 60 tons next week [3][59]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH and MTBE operating rates have increased slightly. The refinery inventory of civil LPG is at a neutral level year - on - year, with destocking mainly in the East and South China. The port inventory of imported LPG is at a relatively high level year - on - year, also with destocking [3][84][94]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The upstream cost has weakened, and the market price of propylene has declined. The international and domestic prices of propylene have both decreased, with the domestic price reaching a new low [105][109][117]. - **Balance Sheet** - The operating rates of some production processes such as PDH have increased slightly, while the operating rates of some downstream products such as PP powder have decreased. The overall supply and demand of propylene have narrowed [127][130][134].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].