Global Research HOLT TMT Global Tech Update – State of Tech, Semi Strength vs Software Reset, & Idea Generation Tech Sector fundamentals remain strong; valuation is high (but not extreme) vs. history Software vs. Semiconductors – Making sense of the disparity in performance and identifying opportunities for 2026 Topical idea generation screens tailored for the current market environment Equities ab 15 January 2026 Jonathan Carson HOLT Sector Specialist jonathan.carson@ubs.com +1-212-882 5659 This report has ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Metals & Mining** industry, utilizing the **HOLT valuation framework** to analyze various sub-sectors and companies within this space [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Valuation Methodology - HOLT's valuation framework is based on a **discounted cash flow model**, emphasizing **Cash Flows Return on Investment (CFROI)** as a key metric for comparing performance across companies and time [1][13]. - The report suggests that there is no single valuation methodology for metals & mining; a combination of **short-term trading multiples (EV/EBITDA)**, cash returns, and **Net Present Value (NPV)** is preferred [1]. Sub-Sector Valuation Insights - **Gold**: - Gold stocks are seen as **undemanding** with market-embedded expectations around **6%**, compared to near-term CFROI forecasts of **~8%** [3][29]. - Top picks include **ABX**, **KGC** in North America, and **EDV** in Europe [3][31]. - **Aluminium**: - Aluminium stocks are viewed positively, trading at a **15-30% discount** to historical EV/EBITDA averages [4][36]. - Preferred stock for exposure is **NHY** [4][37]. - **Copper**: - Copper stocks are considered **expensive** with high market expectations, trading close to historical averages [5][50]. - Recent downgrades include **FCX**, **SCCO**, and **LUN** to Neutral, and **KGHM** to Sell due to a cautious outlook [5][51]. - **Diversified Miners**: - Market expectations are in line with forecasts at **~4%**, but these stocks trade at a premium compared to other sub-sectors [8][43]. - Preference for **GLEN** over **RIO**, **BHP**, and **Vale** due to better capital discipline [8][44]. - **Steel**: - EU steel stocks are pricing in low returns due to high capital intensity and regulatory uncertainties, while US steel stocks are expected to perform better due to protective tariffs [9][57]. - Preferred US steel stocks include **NUE** and **STLD** [9][57]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the **structural challenges** faced by the steel industry in Europe, including high costs related to CO2 emissions and energy [58][59]. - The **EU Steel Action Plan** may provide support for returns on decarbonization projects, potentially leading to a re-rating of the sector [60]. - The **HOLT methodology** does not assign ratings or target prices but serves as an analytical tool for evaluating company performance [66][67]. Conclusion - The Metals & Mining industry presents varied investment opportunities across sub-sectors, with specific stocks recommended based on their valuation relative to market expectations and forecasts. The report emphasizes a selective approach, particularly in the context of changing commodity prices and regulatory environments.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The US has demonstrated significant outperformance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), attributed to its strong value-creation track record [5]. - US Quality Growth stocks are highlighted as key performers in terms of economic profit [7]. - The US has maintained a leading position in innovation, as evidenced by capitalized R&D investments [10]. - There is a noted correlation between improvements in Cash Flow Return on Investment (CFROI) and stock performance, suggesting that companies with better CFROI and growth tend to outperform [12][15]. - The report indicates that consensus CFROI revisions are improving in key areas of the US market, which supports economic profit growth [18]. - The report discusses the impact of deglobalization and recessions on valuations, indicating that these factors are generally unfavorable [24]. - European equities are attractively valued based on equity risk premium metrics, despite some negatives in the region [36][42]. Summary by Sections US Market Insights - The US has been a leader in innovation, with substantial capitalized R&D investments reaching approximately 3,500 billion USD [11]. - The aggregate economic profit for the US has shown a positive trend, significantly outperforming other regions [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of CFROI improvements, with a strong link to economic performance [21]. European Market Insights - European equities are currently valued attractively on an equity risk premium basis, with a noted median of around 4% [37]. - The relative valuation of Europe compared to the US remains favorable, despite Europe's sensitivity to global economic cycles [42][54]. - The report highlights that Europe is more exposed to international trade uncertainties, which could impact its economic performance [48]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that there are opportunities in Global Emerging Markets (GEM), particularly in defensive stocks that appear undervalued [67]. - It identifies specific companies within the Quality Growth segment that are positioned well for future growth, including notable names like NVIDIA and Amazon [79]. - The report indicates that balanced investment strategies have performed well, even during periods of market volatility [71].