Core Viewpoint - Douyin Real Estate is transitioning from the CPS (Cost Per Sale) model to the CPT (Cost Per Time) model, indicating a significant shift in its business strategy after two years of CPS operation [1][4][7]. Group 1: Transition to CPT Model - The CPT model allows for pre-payment by merchants, which provides Douyin with stable cash flow and eliminates issues associated with the CPS model, such as long commission cycles and disputes [6][7]. - The newly launched "Fanglaibao" CPT product offers merchants exclusive benefits like lead management and traffic support, with pricing ranging from 200 to 5000 yuan per month, adjusted based on account performance [3][5]. - The CPT model is expected to facilitate the inclusion of second-hand properties into Douyin's service offerings, thereby expanding its business reach [2][7]. Group 2: Impact on Merchants - Merchants not adopting the CPT model may face restrictions on customer acquisition tools and could be penalized for using alternative lead generation methods [8][13]. - The shift to CPT may lead to a differentiation among real estate merchants on Douyin, with those relying heavily on the platform for customer acquisition becoming more focused on operational efficiency [13][14]. - The transition could potentially harm content creators who do not wish to pay for services, affecting the quality of real estate content on the platform [13][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Growth - Douyin Real Estate has undergone several structural and business model changes since its inception, evolving from the "Xingfuli" platform to its current form, which integrates both new and second-hand property transactions [15]. - As of 2024, Douyin Real Estate has partnered with over 86 service providers, added 35,000 influencers, and achieved an 8-fold increase in transaction volume compared to 2023 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The "Tap and Go" business model is expected to drive significant growth for the company by integrating offline traffic with the payment ecosystem, creating a full-loop conversion from advertisement exposure to interaction and conversion [2][15] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, leveraging its high operational leverage and the incremental growth from the "Tap and Go" initiative [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,904 million in 2023 to 16,775 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 5.95% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,827 million in 2023 to 7,771 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.35% [1] - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.33 in 2023 to 0.54 in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 24.50 to 15.22 [1] Business Model Innovation - The "Tap and Go" model utilizes NFC technology to simplify the interaction process, enhancing user engagement and conversion rates [3][27] - This model addresses traditional pain points in elevator advertising, such as quantifying effectiveness and lengthy conversion paths, by providing a seamless user experience [25][26] - The introduction of a CPS (Cost Per Sale) model allows advertisers to pay based on actual user conversions, thus improving ROI and attracting more advertisers, especially small and medium enterprises [48][49] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong foothold in the elevator media market, with a high penetration rate in key urban areas, which supports the expansion of the "Tap and Go" initiative [17][18] - The increasing share of daily consumer goods clients, which accounted for 61.90% of revenue in 2024, provides a solid customer base for the new advertising model [18][21] - The strategic partnership with Alipay enhances the company's competitive edge by leveraging Alipay's extensive user base and payment ecosystem [15][16] User Engagement and Interaction - The "Tap and Go" initiative features a tiered reward system to enhance user retention and engagement, offering cash rewards for initial interactions and coupons for subsequent ones [4][37] - The system's ability to target specific user demographics and preferences through data analytics improves the efficiency of marketing efforts [38][40] - The initiative aims to transform passive advertising into active user engagement, thereby increasing the effectiveness of advertising campaigns [42][45]