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The market is under pricing the impact of tariffs, says TIAA's Niladri Mukherjee
CNBC Televisionยท 2025-07-29 15:31
Market & Trade Talk Outlook - TIAA Wealth Management manages $1.4 trillion in client assets [1] - Extending the deadline for China trade negotiations would be a positive market outcome [1] - A major deal from current China trade talks is not anticipated [2] - US trade policy uncertainty is decreasing, with European and Japanese deals setting a framework [2] - Trade truce between the US and China should hold due to economic interdependencies, despite occasional flare-ups [3] Tariff Impact & Economic Growth - Tariffs of approximately 15% are being applied to major trading partners like Europe and Japan [2] - Tariffs of 19% to 20% are being applied to other Asian countries, aimed at curbing Chinese transshipment [3] - Current tariff levels of 15% to 16% on $3.1 trillion in US imports equate to about $400 billion in taxes on businesses and consumers [5] - The economy is expected to slow down to a 1% to 1.5% growth rate due to tariffs [5] Potential Economic Offsets - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, looking past inflation and focusing on a cooling labor market [6] - Deregulation and potential rise in capital expenditures could lead to an uptick in growth next year [7] - Income tax relief to households and corporations may offset some tariff costs [7][8] - Re-industrialization and manufacturing starts in the US are rising, benefiting industrial companies [9] - Reshoring is taking place, which may not be fully factored into stock prices [10]
Braemar Hotels & Resorts(BHR) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a comparable RevPAR of $400, reflecting a 4.2% increase year-over-year, marking the highest quarterly RevPAR in its history [7][8] - Comparable total hotel revenue increased by 4.4% year-over-year, while comparable hotel EBITDA was $70.8 million, representing a 5.3% increase [8][14] - The net loss attributable to common stockholders was $2.5 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, with AFFO per diluted share of $0.40 [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The resort portfolio reported a comparable RevPAR of $800, a 1.9% increase year-over-year, with combined comparable hotel EBITDA of $62 million, a 2% increase [9][10] - Urban hotels achieved a comparable RevPAR growth of 11.3%, with the Capitol Hilton benefiting from the presidential inauguration, showing a 19.3% year-over-year RevPAR growth [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group revenue pace for 2025 is up 7%, with continued growth projected at 10% for 2026 [11][24] - The urban portfolio's comparable total revenue increased by 10%, and comparable hotel EBITDA increased by 39% year-over-year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company successfully extended its mortgage loan secured by the Ritz Carlton Lake Tahoe, improving its maturity schedule and lowering the cost of capital [11][12] - The company is focused on strategic capital expenditures, anticipating spending between $75 million and $95 million in 2025 to enhance portfolio quality and brand alignment [29][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the portfolio's resilience amid economic uncertainty, noting strong booking trends and a solid balance sheet [7][30] - The company highlighted the effectiveness of its cost control initiatives, resulting in improved hotel EBITDA margins [20][40] Other Important Information - The company redeemed approximately $90 million of its non-traded preferred stock, representing about 20% of the original capital raise [13] - The company is exploring asset sales, with increased buyer activity noted in the marketplace, particularly for upper upscale assets [52][53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any trends in group bookings regarding cancellations or macroeconomic volatility? - Management noted that while the booking window is shortening slightly, there is no significant impact on group bookings, with Q1 group revenue up 31% year-over-year [32][33] Question: What is the company's exposure to international inbound business? - The company indicated that international inbound is a small part of the portfolio, with minimal impact observed, varying by market [34][36] Question: How does the company plan to grow EBITDA margins? - Management expressed optimism about margin growth, citing aggressive cost containment measures and productivity improvements [37][40] Question: Can you provide details on the Magnificent Mile conversion? - The conversion is expected to enhance asset value and performance, with minimal CapEx planned for public and meeting space renovations [41][42] Question: What is the status of preferred stock redemptions? - The company explained that redemptions are subject to timing and the structure of the security, with holders able to redeem after three years [46][49] Question: What is the outlook for asset sales and use of proceeds? - Management reported increased buyer activity and plans to utilize proceeds for preferred equity redemptions, share buybacks, and retiring corporate convertible notes [52][54]