Key Takeaways from the China Memory Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **semiconductor industry**, specifically the **memory segment** in China, including DRAM, NAND, and HBM technologies [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Pricing Trends**: - Traditional memory prices are projected to rise through **2Q26** due to lean inventory levels [1]. - DRAM and NAND pricing surged by **23%** and **20%** respectively in **4Q25**, with forecasts of further growth of **17-18%** for DRAM and **15-16%** for NAND in **1Q26** [2]. 2. **Inventory Levels**: - Current channel inventories are notably low, with **DRAM** at **1.5-2 months** and **NAND** at **2-2.5 months**, below the normalized range of **2.5-3 months** [2]. 3. **Capacity Expansion**: - Significant capital expenditure is expected in China, with **YMTC** and **CXMT** planning to invest **$15-16 billion** in capacity expansion [1][4]. - CXMT aims to increase DRAM capacity from **198kwpm** to **270kwpm**, while YMTC plans to expand NAND output from **210kwpm** to **290kwpm** [4][9]. 4. **Competitive Landscape**: - Competition is intensifying in NAND and LPDDR5, with **YMTC** positioned favorably due to its **X-Stacking technology** [3]. - **CXMT** is lagging behind, estimated to be **1.5-2 generations** behind in DRAM technology [3]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: - There is a bullish outlook on memory pricing and capital expenditure in China, with local players like **AMEC** expected to benefit significantly [5]. Additional Important Points - **SPE Constraints**: The ongoing SPE bans are hindering progress in LPDDR6 and HBM3e production, limiting domestic capabilities [1][3]. - **HBM Pricing**: HBM pricing is expected to stabilize or slightly soften in **2026** due to aggressive capacity expansion aligning supply with demand [2]. - **Consumer Electronics Impact**: While memory players are expected to benefit from rising prices, the consumer electronics supply chain may face margin pressures [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the semiconductor memory market in China, highlighting pricing trends, competitive dynamics, and capacity expansion plans.