V i e w p o i n t | 28 Aug 2025 21:17:40 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (17): Steady Towards End-August CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Aug 27th . Exports to the US softened in year-on-year terms despite the official extension of tariff truce, while we continue to see narrower tariff differential benefiting China.Overall cargo throughput stayed steady, up 4.7%YoY for the whole month. We expect mid-single-digit export growth for August. Exports t ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Research on China's Trade Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's trade data for July, highlighting the performance of exports and imports in the context of global economic conditions and trade dynamics. Key Points on Exports - **July Exports Performance**: Exports declined by 1.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m/m sa) but increased by 7.2% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing J.P. Morgan's expectation of 6.2% y/y and market consensus of 5.6% y/y [1][4] - **Trend Growth Momentum**: The trend growth momentum slowed to 0.7% over three months annualized (3m/3m saar), down from 7.5% in June and 20.9% in May, indicating a significant deceleration [1][4] - **Trade Surplus**: The trade surplus narrowed to US$98.2 billion from US$114.8 billion in June [1][4] - **Export Destinations**: Exports to the US fell by 6.6% m/m sa after a recovery of over 20% in June, while exports to Japan, the EU, and ASEAN also saw declines [2][4] - **Product Breakdown**: Exports of low-end consumer goods decreased by 5.3% m/m sa, mechanical and electrical products by 1.2%, and high-tech products by 1.8% [3][4] Key Points on Imports - **Import Growth**: Imports grew by 4.1% y/y and 1.6% m/m sa, which was better than J.P. Morgan's forecast of -0.3% y/y and market consensus of -1.0% y/y [1][4] - **Commodity Demand**: The increase in imports was partly driven by strong demand for refined petroleum products, which rose by 18.8% m/m sa [6][4] - **Domestic Demand**: Overall, imports have been softer than expected, reflecting weak domestic demand [6][4] Future Outlook - **Export Projections**: Overall exports are expected to decline by 9% in 3Q compared to a 7.5% increase in 2Q, primarily due to lower global demand and the end of US front-loading [4][7] - **Impact of Tariffs**: The report suggests that punitive US tariffs on transshipment will lead to a shift in the share of exports towards the US at the expense of ASEAN [4][8] - **GDP Contribution**: Net exports contributed 31 percentage points to real GDP growth in 1H, but this is expected to drop to 13 percentage points for the full year as external demand slows [7][4] Additional Insights - **Trade Dynamics**: The report notes a reversal in trade dynamics since the implementation of the Liberation Day tariffs, with exports to the US declining sharply while those to ASEAN and the EU increased [4][8] - **High-Tech Products Resilience**: Despite the overall slowdown, imports of high-tech products maintained solid trend growth for six consecutive months, indicating resilience in this segment [6][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's analysis of China's trade data, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the trade landscape.

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 22:20:36 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (9): Steady into Liberation Day 2.0 CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jul 2nd . Shipping to the US had a few volatile weeks but managed to rebound lately, and the tentative trough for US-China trade could still hold, in our view. Overall cargo throughput grew at a slower pace in the past week. We forecast China's headline exports growth at 3.3%YoY for June. As the RoW comes to ...

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Apr 2025 05:32:28 ET │ 10 pages China Economics Exports to Brace for More Volatilities CITI'S TAKE Exports growth surged ahead of US reciprocal tariffs. External demand could have again provided solid support for growth in 25Q1. For the near term, the bias to China's exports could be towards the stronger end. China's front-loading to the US could continue with a very short window between announcement and implementation this time. Its exports to ASEAN and other EMs could also benefit f ...