Ricarde Vasquez, administrator for the Panama Canal. Thank you so much for joining us on State of Freight. Thank you for the invitation.It's a pleasure as always. Thank you. Uh the canal has seen a reduction in vessel transits for July and August.How much of that is because of the front loing that you saw from the United States with this global trade war. And what's your anticipation moving forward. Well, actually what we have seen is an unseasonally high volumes on container traffic moving northbound.So th ...

Trade and Tariffs - A growing share of American imports are made in South-East Asia [1] - Donald Trump's tariffs threaten the region's growth [1] - The crackdown on "transshipment" poses a risk to the region's economic expansion [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Research on China's Trade Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's trade data for July, highlighting the performance of exports and imports in the context of global economic conditions and trade dynamics. Key Points on Exports - **July Exports Performance**: Exports declined by 1.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m/m sa) but increased by 7.2% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing J.P. Morgan's expectation of 6.2% y/y and market consensus of 5.6% y/y [1][4] - **Trend Growth Momentum**: The trend growth momentum slowed to 0.7% over three months annualized (3m/3m saar), down from 7.5% in June and 20.9% in May, indicating a significant deceleration [1][4] - **Trade Surplus**: The trade surplus narrowed to US$98.2 billion from US$114.8 billion in June [1][4] - **Export Destinations**: Exports to the US fell by 6.6% m/m sa after a recovery of over 20% in June, while exports to Japan, the EU, and ASEAN also saw declines [2][4] - **Product Breakdown**: Exports of low-end consumer goods decreased by 5.3% m/m sa, mechanical and electrical products by 1.2%, and high-tech products by 1.8% [3][4] Key Points on Imports - **Import Growth**: Imports grew by 4.1% y/y and 1.6% m/m sa, which was better than J.P. Morgan's forecast of -0.3% y/y and market consensus of -1.0% y/y [1][4] - **Commodity Demand**: The increase in imports was partly driven by strong demand for refined petroleum products, which rose by 18.8% m/m sa [6][4] - **Domestic Demand**: Overall, imports have been softer than expected, reflecting weak domestic demand [6][4] Future Outlook - **Export Projections**: Overall exports are expected to decline by 9% in 3Q compared to a 7.5% increase in 2Q, primarily due to lower global demand and the end of US front-loading [4][7] - **Impact of Tariffs**: The report suggests that punitive US tariffs on transshipment will lead to a shift in the share of exports towards the US at the expense of ASEAN [4][8] - **GDP Contribution**: Net exports contributed 31 percentage points to real GDP growth in 1H, but this is expected to drop to 13 percentage points for the full year as external demand slows [7][4] Additional Insights - **Trade Dynamics**: The report notes a reversal in trade dynamics since the implementation of the Liberation Day tariffs, with exports to the US declining sharply while those to ASEAN and the EU increased [4][8] - **High-Tech Products Resilience**: Despite the overall slowdown, imports of high-tech products maintained solid trend growth for six consecutive months, indicating resilience in this segment [6][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's analysis of China's trade data, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the trade landscape.

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing August 06, 2025 Industry Overview - The briefing focuses on the U.S. Customs market and recent trade actions affecting importers, particularly in relation to tariffs and trade agreements [6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent U.S. Trade Actions**: - Six major trade actions are highlighted, with specific dates for implementation [7]. - Notable actions include the increase of tariffs on fentanyl imports from Canada and the introduction of copper tariffs from Brazil [10][11][12]. 2. **Tariff Increases**: - Fentanyl tariffs from Canada increased from 25% to 35% [13]. - Copper tariffs from Brazil set at 40%, raising the total tariff to 50% when combined with existing rates [25][26]. 3. **Reciprocal Tariffs**: - A new set of reciprocal tariffs will be implemented affecting 95 countries, with rates changing from a universal 10% to new specific rates [30][34]. - Countries with trade deficits with the U.S. may see increases in tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% [34]. 4. **In-Transit Exemptions**: - Exemptions for goods loaded on vessels before specific deadlines to avoid additional tariffs [26][56]. - Documentation is emphasized as crucial for claiming these exemptions [28][29]. 5. **Impact on India**: - An additional 25% duty on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tariff to 50% due to geopolitical tensions [54][55]. 6. **End of De Minimis**: - The end of de minimis for low-value shipments (under $800) will apply to all countries starting August 29, requiring formal entries for all imports [59][62]. 7. **Ongoing Investigations**: - Section 232 investigations are ongoing, focusing on national security risks related to various industries, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [68][69]. 8. **Legal Challenges**: - Legal challenges against the government's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA) are ongoing, with potential implications for future tariff enforcement [73][74][78]. 9. **Transshipment Concerns**: - The administration is concerned about transshipment practices that may evade tariffs, particularly involving inputs from non-market economies like China [82][90]. 10. **Value Chain Understanding**: - Importers are encouraged to understand the full value chain of their goods to comply with new regulations and avoid penalties [94][96]. Other Important Content - **Documentation and Compliance**: Emphasis on the importance of maintaining accurate documentation for customs declarations and understanding the life cycle of customs entries [99][100]. - **Future Outlook**: Continued monitoring of trade actions and legal developments is advised, as changes are expected to impact various sectors significantly [71][72]. This summary encapsulates the critical updates and insights from the Expeditors International briefing, focusing on the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policies and their implications for importers.

Trade & Tariffs - US transshipment tariffs on Vietnam and Indonesia suggest a significant shift in Chinese output rerouting [1] - The concern regarding the rerouting of Chinese output may be overstated [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a new 20% tariff on Vietnam's exports to the US, which is a reduction from the previous reciprocal tariff rate of 46% but still significantly higher than the pre-Liberation Day rate of 4.6% [2][3] Core Insights - The US-Vietnam trade deal aims to establish favorable rules of origin and reduce transshipment, which could lead to higher tariffs for other ASEAN economies like Thailand while potentially benefiting India with lower tariffs [2][3][20] - Vietnam's exports to the US account for 29.5% of its total exports and 25.1% of its GDP, indicating a significant economic impact from the new tariff structure [5][6] - The indirect effects of the US tariffs on Vietnam will also impact other Asian economies that supply intermediate products, with Vietnam's exposure estimated at 8.25% of its GDP, while Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea face lower but still significant impacts [6][7] Summary by Sections Trade Deal Details - The US and Vietnam have agreed on a 20% tariff on Vietnam's exports, which includes various products such as tech, footwear, and agricultural commodities [2][3] - Vietnam is expected to address non-tariff barriers and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products [2][3] Economic Impact - The total export value at risk due to the new tariffs is estimated at 1.7% of Vietnam's GDP, with Taiwan at 0.9%, China at 0.8%, and Thailand and Korea at 0.6-0.7% [7][6] - The report highlights that the higher tariffs will pressure profit margins for exporters and may lead to increased prices for end consumers [5][6] Regional Dynamics - The transshipment clause poses challenges for ASEAN economies, particularly Thailand and Cambodia, which may face higher reciprocal tariff rates [3][20] - The report suggests that India could gain a competitive advantage in sectors like textiles and electronics if it can negotiate lower tariffs [3][20]

Trade Dynamics - Chinese imports to the United States have significantly decreased compared to the previous year, but goods are being rerouted through other Asian countries [1] - This practice, known as transshipment, allows companies to circumvent tariffs by shipping goods through countries with lower tariff rates [2] - A significant tariff differential exists, with tariffs on Chinese imports at 30% compared to a 10% tariff on imports from other countries [2][3] - The 20% tariff difference creates a strong incentive for companies to transship goods [3][4] - Chinese companies are diversifying their production outside of China, with many companies in countries like Vietnam and Cambodia being owned by Chinese firms [4][5] - The Trump administration is aware of this practice and considered reciprocal tariffs on other Asian countries, but these were suspended [6][7] - The US is pursuing country-by-country trade deals, with Vietnam being receptive to avoid higher tariffs [8] Market Implications - The trade war creates distortions in global trading markets, leading companies to find ways to minimize costs [8][9] - Companies are motivated to ship goods at the lowest possible cost and are actively moving goods around to achieve this [9]