Resurgent Zambia is riding copper’s ascent, but can the boom trickle down to its citizens https://t.co/Lm1eLkR11m ...

Gentlemen, good morning. Great to have you both here. Bill, I'm going to start with you.And I think this is a question that a lot of people are going to start talking about pretty soon, this rise in commodity prices. What does that mean for inflation. As I just mentioned, fed officials, they were worried about inflation during those fed minutes.As we continue to see commodities rally, does that get transferred into higher prices for goods. >> The Fed's worried about inflation really stems from the service s ...

Farmers today face a challenging economic landscape, grappling with low commodity prices and soaring input costs. Among these, fertilizer stands out, often accounting for 20 to 30% of the total cost of producing crops like corn and soybeans. This significant expense isn't just a concern during planting season.It's a year- round risk that demands a proactive approach. The traditional cycles of spring and fall fertilizer application don't capture the full picture. Factors like weather, crop quality, market dy ...

Australia grew rich on Chinese demand. But with China’s economy slowing and commodity prices falling, Australia looks punch drunk as a result. The question now is whether the government down under has the tools to reverse the country’s economic problems https://t.co/13XbNongax ...

Company Earnings - Carnival (NYSE: CCL) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.43 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.32 per share [2] - The company also reported quarterly sales of $8.153 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $8.101 billion [2] Stock Movements - Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) shares increased by 40% to $1.6050 following a video from President Donald Trump promoting cannabis health benefits [8] - Merus N.V. (NASDAQ: MRUS) shares surged 36% to $93.93 after Genmab agreed to acquire the company for $97 per share [8] - Better Home & Finance Holding Company (NASDAQ: BETR) shares rose 17% to $62.23 after announcing a $75 million at-the-market offering for Class A shares [8] - KALA BIO, Inc. (NASDAQ: KALA) shares plummeted 89% to $2.15 after failing to meet primary endpoints in a clinical trial [8] - MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ: MLTX) shares fell 89% to $6.69 due to a failed trial [8] - IO Biotech, Inc. (NASDAQ: IOBT) shares dropped 78% to $0.3501 following an update after a pre-BLA meeting with the FDA [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. pending home sales surged by 4% in August, marking the sharpest gain in five months, compared to a 0.4% decline in the previous month [10] - The Dallas Fed's general business activity index for Texas manufacturing declined to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in the previous month [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolution Petroleum reported a net income of $3.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, reflecting a material improvement driven by a balanced commodity mix and cost controls [4][16] - Total revenues for Fiscal Q4 2025 were $21.1 million, essentially flat year over year, with average production at 7,198 BOE per day [15][16] - Realized natural gas prices increased by 66% year over year, while oil prices declined by 20% and NGL prices declined by 12% [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed a $9 million TexMex acquisition, adding approximately 440 net BOE per day of stable, low-decline production [4][5] - The largest minerals-only acquisition in company history was completed, adding approximately 5,500 net royalty acres with roughly 420 net BOE per day [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for oil is expected to grow at a steady rate of over 1% per year, with OPEC Plus adding back supply [7][8] - Natural gas demand is anticipated to increase due to new LNG exports and industrial demand related to power generation [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through durable free cash flow, reliable dividends, and accretive low-decline opportunities [11][19] - The capital allocation framework remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining conservative leverage and positioning the balance sheet for future opportunities [11][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio and future cash flows, highlighting the ability to adapt to market environments [11][19] - The company is well-positioned to accelerate growth with recent acquisitions and organic opportunities across its asset base [19] Other Important Information - A dividend of $0.12 per share was declared for Fiscal Q1 2026, marking the company's 48th consecutive quarterly dividend [18] - The company amended its senior secured reserve-based credit facility, establishing a $65 million borrowing base under a $200 million revolving credit facility [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current run rates for Scoop Stack, Barnett, and Shabbaroo - Management indicated that production rates are in line with previous quarters, with Shabbaroo wells expected to decline approximately 50% over the first year [21][22] Question: CapEx outlook for Fiscal 2026 - The budget for Fiscal 2026 is estimated at $4-6 million, primarily for Scoop Stack and maintenance CapEx [24][25] Question: LOE expectations for Scoop Stack and Barnett - Management expects a material improvement in LOE for Scoop Stack due to the minerals acquisition, while Barnett's LOE is anticipated to decrease slightly [28][34]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks traded higher, with the Dow Jones index gaining approximately 0.1% on Monday, closing at 45,856.77. The NASDAQ rose 0.75% to 22,307.16, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.37% to 6,608.41 [1] - Consumer discretionary shares experienced a significant increase of 1.9%, while health care stocks fell by 0.5% on the same day [1] Economic Indicators - The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -8.7 in September, down from 11.9 in August and below market estimates of 5 [2][10] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil prices rose by 1% to $63.31, while gold increased by 0.3% to $3,698.80. Silver saw a slight decrease of 0.1% to $42.810, and copper rose by 1% to $4.6975 [5] European Market - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.47%. Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 0.63%, while London's FTSE 100 fell by 0.01%. Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.27%, and France's CAC 40 rose by 1.05% [6] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mostly mixed, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising by 0.22%, China's Shanghai Composite falling by 0.26%, and India's BSE Sensex declining by 0.15% [7] Company News - Check-Cap Ltd. (CHEK) shares surged by 261% to $2.68 following a definitive merger agreement with MBody AI. Helius Medical Technologies, Inc. (HSDT) shares increased by 161% to $19.70 after announcing a $1.25 billion SOL-backed treasury strategy with an oversubscribed PIPE offering at $6.88 per share [9] - Robo.ai Inc. (AIIO) shares rose by 43% to $2.0850 after signing a joint venture agreement to establish Robo.ai Industrial City in Dubai [9] - aTyr Pharma, Inc. (ATYR) shares dropped by 81% to $1.1694 after failing to meet primary endpoints in a Phase 3 study [9] - Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (RNA) shares fell by 7% to $41.68 following a filing for an offering of 15 million shares of common stock [9] - The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN) shares decreased by 26% to $1.5894 after reporting worse-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results [9]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Summary of CMOC Group (3993.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC Group (3993.HK) - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically mining and production of copper and cobalt - **Market Cap**: HK$230.8 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$252.7 billion / $32.3 billion - **12m Price Target**: HK$10.80 / Rmb13.00 Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb8.67 billion, up 60% YoY - **EPS**: Rmb0.405 per share, up 62% YoY - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb8.62 billion, up 52% YoY - **Results**: 8% below estimates due to higher COGS in DRC operations, but above Bloomberg consensus [1][2][30] Revenue and Profitability - **Revenue**: Rmb94.77 billion, down 8% YoY - **Gross Profit**: Rmb18.19 billion, up 8% YoY - **Gross Profit from Mining**: Rmb16.9 billion, up 18% YoY, but 16% below estimates due to lower copper and cobalt profits in DRC [22][30] - **Trading Gross Profit**: Rmb1.8 billion, up 8% YoY, 23% above expectations [23] Operational Performance - **Copper Output**: 354kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 4% above estimates - **Cobalt Output**: 61kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 6% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Copper**: Increased by 44% YoY to Rmb6,112 per ton, 33% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Cobalt**: Increased by 30% YoY to Rmb8,375 per ton, 20% above estimates [25][31] Future Outlook - **Volume Guidance for 2025**: Copper 600-660kt, Cobalt 100-120kt - **Long-term Target**: 800-1,000kt annual copper output and 90-100kt annual cobalt output by 2028E [27] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Increased by 5-9% for 2025-27E due to higher minor metal prices [2] - **Expected Recurring Profit Growth**: 38% in 2025E driven by rising copper prices [36] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlation, with a higher discount rate due to ESG risks [37] Risks - **Commodity Price Risks**: Weaker-than-expected prices for copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus - **Operational Risks**: Sudden decline in ore grade and transportation issues - **Project Execution Risks**: Slower-than-expected project execution impacting growth - **Currency/Country Risks**: Associated with overseas assets - **Hedging Operations**: Risks in trading business [29] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on CMOC H/A shares, with a target price reflecting potential upside based on market conditions and operational performance [36]

Core Viewpoint - Hudbay Minerals (HBM) is expected to report improved second-quarter 2025 results, driven by higher gold and copper prices, with projected revenues of $495.3 million, reflecting a 16.4% year-over-year growth [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM's second-quarter earnings has decreased by 35.3% over the past 60 days to 11 cents per share, but this still represents a significant improvement from the break-even earnings reported in the same quarter last year [2]. - HBM's earnings surprise history shows that the company has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 50% [3]. Production and Operations - In Q1 2025, HBM produced 30,958 tons of copper and 73,784 ounces of gold, with copper output down 11% and gold production down 18% year-over-year, aligning with internal expectations [8]. - The ongoing stripping phase in the Pampacancha pit has negatively impacted production in Peru, but higher gold production in Manitoba has partially offset this decline [9]. - Manitoba operations achieved gold production of 60,354 ounces, copper of 3,469 tons, and silver of 285,603 ounces, with gold, copper, and silver production increasing by 6%, 10%, and 30% respectively compared to Q1 2024 [10]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices averaged around $3,301.42 per ounce in the April-June 2025 period, marking a 41% year-over-year increase, while silver prices rose by 16% and copper prices increased by 5% [14]. - These favorable pricing trends are expected to help mitigate the impact of lower production volumes on HBM's revenue performance in the upcoming quarter [15]. Valuation and Market Performance - HBM shares have increased by 19% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 17.9% [16]. - The company is currently trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.74, higher than the industry average of 1.15, indicating a relatively elevated valuation compared to peers [19][20]. Investment Outlook - Hudbay Minerals' diversified operations in copper and gold provide leverage to strong commodity prices, with projected copper output averaging 144,000 tons annually over the next three years [21]. - Despite expected upbeat second-quarter results driven by higher gold prices, concerns remain regarding lower production levels due to the depletion of the Pampacancha deposit [23].