One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.The benchmark yield was up more than 2 basis points at 4.172%, while the 2-year Treasury note yield surged more than 5 basis points to 3.512%, reflecting reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate reductions the rest of this year. The 30-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.813%.The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher in reaction to January job growth that was more than double what Wall Street ...

Core Insights - H-E-B has been ranked as America's top grocery store for the fifth time in nine years, surpassing major competitors like Amazon, Costco, and Trader Joe's [1][2] - The ranking is based on a study by Dunnhumby, which evaluated 81 major U.S. grocery stores, combining financial performance with survey responses from over 11,000 American shoppers [8] Company Performance - H-E-B operates more than 440 stores and is recognized for its superior ability to deliver better savings, quality, experience, and assortment [2] - Market Basket and Woodman's ranked second and third, respectively, while Costco, Aldi, WinCo Foods, Trader Joe's, Amazon, Wegmans, and ShopRite completed the top ten [5] Market Trends - For the first time, the leading three retailers in the U.S. are all regional chains, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5] - Consumer confidence has declined due to rising prices, limited job opportunities, and stagnant wages, leading shoppers to make more price-conscious choices [8][11] Economic Context - Overall food prices increased by 0.7% in December and 3.1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [12]

Core Insights - The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report a 2.8% increase in core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, for the 12 months ending in November, consistent with the previous report in September [2][3] - This inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Economic Implications - The delayed release of the PCE inflation data means it will have less influence on Federal Reserve interest rate policy than usual [6][10] - Inflation has exceeded the Fed's target since 2021, although it has decreased from its peak in 2022 [6] - Concerns exist among Fed officials that tariffs are contributing to inflation, while a slowdown in the housing market is helping to moderate rent increases, a significant component of inflation [7][10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2022 to combat inflation, but has recently lowered rates in response to economic conditions and job market concerns [8] - With the PCE data delayed, the Fed may focus more on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for inflation trends [9][10]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a current reading of 56.3, down from 58.6 [1][4] - U.S. stocks settled lower, with the Dow Jones index falling almost 400 points during the session, closing at 49,191.99 [1][3] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in December, matching prior readings and economist estimates, while core CPI came in at 2.6% year over year, slightly below expectations [1] Company Earnings - JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares fell more than 4% despite beating earnings estimates, as investors were concerned about weaker investment-banking fees and cautious commentary on loan growth [2] - Delta Air Lines Inc. shares slid over 2% after issuing soft forward guidance, citing cost pressures and normalization in post-pandemic travel demand [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with energy, consumer staples, and real estate stocks recording the biggest gains, while consumer discretionary and financial stocks closed lower [3]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a current reading of 56.3, down from 58.6 [1][4] - U.S. stocks settled lower, with the Dow Jones index falling almost 400 points during the session, closing at 49,191.99 [1][3] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in December, matching prior readings and economist estimates, while core CPI came in at 2.6% year over year, slightly below expectations [1] Company Earnings - JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares fell more than 4% despite beating earnings estimates, as investors were concerned about weaker investment-banking fees and cautious commentary on loan growth [2] - Delta Air Lines Inc. shares slid over 2% after issuing soft forward guidance, citing cost pressures and normalization in post-pandemic travel demand [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with energy, consumer staples, and real estate stocks recording the biggest gains, while consumer discretionary and financial stocks closed lower [3]

Core Insights - Inflation significantly impacts household expenses, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a crucial economic indicator [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) categorizes expenditures into eight groups, with food, shelter, and clothing comprising over 60% of the CPI [2] CPI Component Analysis - Medical Care and Housing have seen the highest growth, each exceeding 100% since 2000, while Apparel has remained relatively unchanged [4] - Transportation exhibits high volatility, primarily driven by the Motor Fuel subcategory [5] - Energy costs are integrated into Housing and Transportation categories, with energy assigned a relative importance of 6.216 out of 100 in the CPI [7] Education Costs - College Tuition and Fees have increased nearly 200% since 2000, representing 1.324% of total expenditures, which can strain family budgets [8] - The BLS's calculation of tuition often does not reflect actual costs after financial aid, potentially exaggerating the inflation impact [9][10] Core Inflation Metrics - Core Inflation, excluding Food and Energy, is closely monitored, with a cumulative change of 85.5% since 2000 compared to 92.5% for headline CPI [12] Household Impact of Inflation - The effects of inflation vary significantly among households, with lower-income families and those with high transportation or medical costs being more vulnerable [15][16]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose by +0.26%, supported by the yen's weakness, which fell to a 1.5-year low against the dollar [1] - US October new home sales fell -0.1% month-over-month to 737,000, which was stronger than the expected 715,000 [3] - US December core consumer prices were unchanged from November at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations - The markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - Concerns over Fed independence have arisen following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding potential criminal charges related to his testimony, which may impact market sentiment [2][5] Group 3: Liquidity and Future Fed Chair Speculation - The Federal Reserve has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills to boost liquidity in the financial system [5] - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett seen as the most dovish candidate [5]

Core Insights - The December consumer price index (CPI) increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, falling short of the expected 2.7% [1]

Market Overview - Futures are trending higher following the December consumer price index at 2.7%, aligning with Wall Street expectations [2] - Major indices experienced volatility but closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.17% at 49,590 and the S&P 500 up 0.16% at 6,977, both reaching new all-time highs [2] - The Nasdaq rose 0.25% to 23,833, while the Russell 2000 led with a 0.44% increase to 2,635, marking a 5.7% gain year-to-date [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields increased across the curve, influenced by the controversy surrounding Federal Reserve subpoenas, leading to a decline in bond prices [3] - The 30-year bond yield closed at 4.84%, and the benchmark 10-year note was at 4.19% [3] Oil and Gas - Energy prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and potential long-term changes in global oil supply, with Brent Crude closing at $64.01, up 1.06%, and West Texas Intermediate at $59.63, up 0.85% [4] - Natural gas prices surged 6.5% to $3.38 following a wave of cold weather across the U.S. [4] Earnings Season - The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major Wall Street banks reporting later this week [5] - Economic indicators, including the December Consumer Price Index, are anticipated to influence market movements [5]

Market Trends - Initial trends from the U.S. Futures Index indicate a potential lower opening for Wall Street, with Dow futures down 61.00 points, S&P 500 futures down 6.25 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 48.00 points [1] - The U.S. major averages closed positive on Monday, with the Dow rising 86.13 points (0.2%) to 49,590.29, Nasdaq climbing 62.56 points (0.3%) to 23,733.90, and S&P 500 increasing 10.99 points (0.2%) to 6,977.27 [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is expected to rise by 0.3%, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% [2] - New Home Sales for September are anticipated to be 710K [2] Treasury Auctions and Discussions - A 30-year Treasury Bond auction is scheduled for 1.00 pm ET [3] - A four-month Treasury bill announcement will take place at 11.00 am ET, and discussions on U.S. monetary policy will be held by St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem at 10.00 am ET [4] Asian Market Performance - Asian shares mostly finished up, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 240 points (0.90%) to close at 26,848.47, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 jumping 1,627 points (3.1%) to close at 53,567.00 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.64% to finish at 4,138.76 [4]