Oil's winners and losers from Venezuela's regime change, December jobs report and consumer sentiment updates on deck, CES expected to highlight consumer AI, and more news to start your day. ...

Economic Forecast - The company is optimistic about the economic outlook for next year, citing five tailwinds that will contribute to GDP growth, including fiscal policy, monetary stimulus from Fed cuts, AI-related growth, supportive trade policy, and positive base effects from previous shutdowns [2][3]. K-Shaped Economy - The current economic situation is characterized as a K-shaped economy, where lower-income spending is stabilizing, supported by strong upper-income spending, which is expected to help stabilize the job market [3][5]. - The most concerning type of K-shaped economy would be one where upper-income spending is weak while lower-income spending is also declining, but this is not the case currently [4][5]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is closely tied to consumer spending, which typically leads job growth rather than the other way around, indicating that resilience in consumer spending bodes well for future labor market stability [7][8]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize and potentially decrease in the latter half of next year, although significant acceleration in job growth is not anticipated [8]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has been weak despite strong consumer spending, and this disconnect may continue due to factors such as cumulative price increases and political polarization [9][10]. - The midterm elections are expected to influence trade policy positively, with the administration likely to focus on delivering favorable news for the economy and stock market, potentially through trade agreements [11].

Well, we're going to start with the econ outlook for next year as the street debates the path for the Fed following GDP earlier in the week. Let's bring in CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leeman. Steve, it's great to have you on and let's start right there.The economic outlook for 2026. Uh there's something for the Bulls, there's something for the Bears. We're talking to Tristan Slock from Apollo last hour and he was basically saying the economic uh the economy could be poised to be much stronger than ...

Core Insights - The company reported record earnings and yields for 2025, with a yield increase of over 5.5% on top of an 11% increase from the previous year, indicating strong demand for its offerings [2] - For 2026, the company projects a normalized yield increase of 3%, despite consumer sentiment challenges and global volatility [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are being selective with their spending, prioritizing experiences such as vacations and time with family and friends [4][5] - The company is experiencing the highest booking levels ever at this time, with bookings at higher prices compared to the previous year [6] - There is a consistent demand across various cruise segments, including contemporary, premium, and luxury, indicating a broad appeal [7] Value Proposition - The company emphasizes the favorable price-to-experience ratio of cruises compared to land-based alternatives, which enhances its attractiveness to consumers [8] - The company is expanding its market reach, becoming a more prominent option for consumers looking to maximize their vacation spending [9]

Upbeat comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive for stocks but negative for bonds, as he said some of the data we're seeing is "pretty encouraging" and he sees no sign of a sharp deterioration in the jobs data. He added that he sees US GDP growth of 1.5% to 1.75% this year, with growth picking up next year, and that there's "no urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now, because I think the cuts we've made have positioned us really well."The University of Mic ...

All right, first though, let's get some breaking economic data that's just crossing. Rick Santelli has it for us. Rick.>> Yes, David, indeed. These are the December final reads on University of Michigan sentiment and the inflation metrics embedded in this report. So, the midmon read gets tossed. 53.3% was the midmon read on the headline.It now moves lower to 52.9%. That'll be the weakest since it was 51 in November. And I'd like to point out that if you look at the absolute low, it is 50 from June of 22.We' ...

Consumer sentiment sits near a record low at the end of 2025, but the news isn't all bad. ...

Core Insights - A significant shift in American happiness levels is impacting investment behavior, leading to undervaluation in high-yielding closed-end funds (CEFs) [2][3][10] Consumer Sentiment - The General Social Survey indicates that while most Americans report feeling "pretty happy," the percentage of those who are unhappy reached a new high in 2022, with "very happy" individuals at a new low [4][5] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan and OECD, is currently lower than during the pandemic, despite lower unemployment and rising incomes [6][8] Market Implications - The disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic indicators suggests that traditional survey-driven research may be less reliable, impacting investment strategies [10][11] - The Liberty All-Star Growth Fund (ASG) is experiencing a discount to net asset value (NAV) that is significantly deeper than historical averages, attributed to risk-averse investors reacting to negative sentiment [13][14] Investment Opportunity - ASG has a 10.2% annualized return and a current yield of 9%, presenting a potential buying opportunity as discounts are expected to narrow once market sentiment adjusts [14][16]

Economic Overview - The retail sector has underperformed, with the S&P Retail Select Industry Index gaining less than 8% since the start of the year, compared to nearly 17% for the S&P 500 [1] - However, the retail index gained over 9% in the trailing half-year period and surged more than 7% in the past 30 days, outperforming the S&P 500, which only returned 0.56% [2] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Recent economic data indicates a slight easing in the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, with core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) slowing from 2.9% to 2.8% [3][4] - Consumer spending increased by $65.1 billion or 0.3%, aligning with consensus forecasts [4] - Consumer sentiment improved from 51.0 points in November to 53.3 in December, marking a 4.5% gain, while consumer expectations rose from 51.0 to 55.0 points [5] Retail Sector Adaptation - Retailers are adapting to the economic environment, with Dollar Tree Inc. beating third-quarter estimates and showing strength across all income groups [7] - Many retail-oriented enterprises are shifting strategies to omnichannel and digital fronts to maximize revenue [7] Investment Opportunities - The Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares (RETL) ETF offers a leveraged investment option, tracking 300% of the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index [8] - The RETL ETF has lost over 3% since the start of the year but has increased by 17% in the last six months, supported by robust sentiment and trading volume [11] - The ETF is currently above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, with critical support at the $8 level and a target of $10 for bullish investors [11]

Economic Overview - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a "very strong" holiday shopping season and predicted a robust end to the year for the U.S. economy [1] - The economy has outperformed expectations with a reported 4% GDP growth in several quarters, and a forecast of 3% real GDP growth for the year despite challenges such as the Schumer shutdown [2] GDP Performance - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a contraction of 0.6% year-over-year in GDP for the first quarter of 2025, followed by a significant increase of 3.8% in the second quarter [2] - Initial estimates for third-quarter economic results are set to be published on December 23, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projecting an annual GDP growth of 3.5% for that quarter [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, remains pessimistic, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which recorded a score of 53.3 in December. This reflects a 4.5% increase from November but a 28% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]