It turned out to be a rough end to the year for Oxford Industries in 2025. Late Thursday, the Atlanta-based owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer reported a loss of $9.7 million, or 48 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, down from a profit of $20.3 million, or $1.14 a share, in the prior year. Sales dipped 4 percent to $374.5 million from $390.5 million. More from WWD Sales at Tommy Bahama were down 4 percent to $229.2 million, Lilly Pulitzer posted a 1 percent dip in sales to $73.5 million and Joh ...

In this article, we will look at Jim Cramer’s stock calls and the truth about strong consumer spending despite the Iran conflict. On Monday, the host of Mad Money talked about how consumer spending is holding up even as tensions rise amid the conflict with Iran. It all starts with retail. That’s how everything works in this country. We see the strengths and weaknesses of the consumer at the register, and we make judgments because our country’s economy is based on service, not manufacturing. And all I can sa ...

Target might truly be one of the saddest retail stories in recent history. Granted, the company is still alive and well — or at least alive. It hasn't succumbed to bankruptcy like so many other retailers in recent years. But the company isn't exactly thriving. Even though Target's most recent quarterly earnings report was better than expected, comparable sales fell 2.5% and overall revenue plunged 1.5% year over year. And the company is facing huge challenges as consumers broadly reduce their discretiona ...

This commentary is written by Horizon's asset management team. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This report does not attempt to examine all the facts and circumstances that may be relevant to any company, industry, or security mentioned herein. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. It is for the general information of clients of Horizon Investments, LL ...

Signet Jewelers tops Q4 earnings expectations, flags margin pressure ahead Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Shares of Signet Jewelers Limited (NYSE:SIG) rose 12.5% in early trading Thursday after the jewelry retailer reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations and issued a full-year outlook that brackets current estimates, even as it flagged margin pressure and a cautious consumer environment. The company reported adjusted earnings of $6.25 per share for the fourth ...

Key Points America’s Baby Boomer population is growing older rapidly. As this number of aging individuals grows, multiple industries will be affected. These are a handful o major ways the economy could be altered in the coming years. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. America is entering a major demographic shift as millions of Baby Boomers reach retirement age. This evolving populati ...

The Economy Has 4 Problems. The Fed Can't Fix Them. - Barron's Skip to Main Content This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. The Economy Has 4 Problems. The Fed Can't Fix Them. Reprints Rising energy prices are expected to drive up overall inflation and drag down ...

Core Inflation Data - The inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve rose 2.8% in January year-over-year, slightly below December's increase [1][8] - Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1%, up from 3% in the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly two years [2] - Monthly prices rose 0.3% in January, while core prices jumped 0.4% for the second consecutive month, indicating a potential rise in inflation above the Fed's 2% annual target if this pace continues [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The ongoing war with Iran, which began on February 28, has disrupted oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a more than 40% increase in oil prices and a rise in gas prices to $3.60 per gallon from just under $3 a month prior [4] - Economists forecast that these developments will likely cause inflation to spike in March and potentially April [4] Consumer Spending and Income - Consumer spending increased at a solid pace of 0.4% in January, matching December's rise, indicating that Americans are still contributing to steady economic growth [6] - Incomes also rose by 0.4%, with after-tax incomes jumping 0.9% due to a significant increase in Social Security benefit payments following a cost of living adjustment [9] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained elevated key interest rates to slow borrowing, spending, and growth in an effort to further cool inflation [5] - Fed policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged in their upcoming meeting, as the Middle East conflict is anticipated to raise inflation in the short term [5][11] Price Index Comparisons - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is currently running hotter than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), primarily because it places less weight on rental costs, which have been declining [10]

Core Insights - US retail sales experienced a monthly increase in February, indicating ongoing growth in consumer spending despite economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, rose by 0.28% month on month and 6.24% year on year, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase [2][5] Retail Sector Performance - Retail spending increased year on year in eight out of nine tracked sectors in February, with notable growth in clothing stores, health and personal care retailers, and general merchandise outlets [4] - Monthly performance was mixed, with five sectors showing gains compared to January [4] Economic Indicators - Retail activity is a crucial indicator of the broader US economy, as consumer spending constitutes a significant portion of economic output [6] - For the first two months of the year, total retail sales rose by 6.04% year on year, while core retail sales increased by 5.76%, suggesting stable momentum in the retail sector as it approaches the spring trading period [5] External Risks - Retailers are closely monitoring geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Israel military strikes on Iran, which could disrupt energy markets and shipping routes, potentially impacting consumer spending [7] - Rising fuel prices and inflation expectations linked to these conflicts are influencing consumer sentiment, with higher transport and logistics costs likely to affect retail pricing [8]

Labor Market Overview - Nonfarm employment fell by approximately 92,000 positions in February, reversing January's gain of 126,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, equating to 7.6 million unemployed Americans, an increase of about 203,000 from the previous month [2][5] - The healthcare sector alone accounted for roughly 28,000 lost positions due to strike activity, which had previously added an average of 36,000 positions monthly over the past year [3] - Goods-producing firms lost about 25,000 jobs, with construction and manufacturing declining by 11,000 and 12,000 jobs respectively, while service-providing industries lost around 61,000 positions [4] Consumer Sentiment and Spending Power - The PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index (PCEI) indicated stable consumer sentiment, with a reading of 60.1 in February, above the neutral threshold of 50, suggesting households do not view labor market turbulence as a direct threat to their finances [6][7] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in February and have risen 3.8% over the past year, outpacing inflation, which was approximately 2.4% [7] - Confidence in financial conditions remains conditional, with consumers able to manage debt but assessments closer to neutral [11] Labor Mobility and Job Security - The labor market security subindex improved to 67.6 in February, indicating strong perceived job stability, although job mobility indicators remained below neutral, suggesting workers feel safer in their current positions [12][13] - This cautious sentiment may explain why consumer spending remains steady despite fluctuations in employment headlines, as secure but immobile workers are less likely to increase spending [14] Financial Condition Disparities - The PCEI data revealed a widening gap in consumer financial conditions, with households not living paycheck to paycheck reporting index readings in the low 60s, while those struggling with monthly obligations reported readings near the low 40s [15] - Consumer behavior will continue to depend on household cash flow resilience, with spending likely to persist as long as workers believe their income is secure [16]