Look at European equity market futures markets. They don't look all that inspiring. But we've had so much news and we're set to get a little data this week.It doesn't feel necessarily necessarily as if the market action is living up to all of the inputs. What are you making of the stock market performance right now. Good morning, John.Well, it's precisely because of all those scheduled catalysts that people are reluctant to take too big bets to add too much risk at the moment. I think ultimately I expect th ...

Group 1 - The stock market is currently at all-time highs, but there are mixed signals from the macroeconomy, particularly regarding consumer spending [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry trends [2]

Shares of Chipotle saw their worst day in years after the chain announced lower than expected instore traffic for a second quarter in a row. In the Cameron Mitchell restaurant group, a difference between lower and higher priced restaurant sales could also point to a more cautious consumer. And joining us right now to talk more about it is Cameron Mitchell himself of Cameron Mitchell Restaurants.He's the founder and CEO and we check in with him frequently on this stuff. Cameron, let's talk a little bit about ...

Market Volatility & Uncertainty - The market faces continued uncertainty stemming from administration policies, tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2][3] - Despite volatility, the market hit a new high in June, and historically, markets tend to be positive 12 months after hitting a new high [3][4] - The best and worst trading days of the year occurred within four days of each other, making market timing extremely difficult [6] Investment Strategy - Advises clients to review their strategic asset allocation to meet long-term goals and tolerate volatility [5] - Recommends against trying to time the market, emphasizing the importance of reviewing investments and allocations with advisors [6] Economic Outlook - The consumer remains strong and has absorbed tariffs without significant pause, continuing to spend [8][10] - Economic data is strong, and it's important to differentiate between stock market volatility and the overall economy [8] - Inflation data shows prices of consumer goods are ticking up, with August suggested as a potential peak [9]

Trade Deal & Tariffs - A trade deal with Vietnam was announced, including 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods entering the US market, which could impact importers like retailers [2] - No tariffs are imposed on US goods entering the Vietnamese market [2] - The market views the deal as a step in the right direction, but the 20% tariff rate is higher than desired [3][4] - The market anticipates further trade deals before the July 9th deadline [3] - A 20% tariff across the board with other countries could cause concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending [5][6] - The 20% tariff is better than the originally announced 46% on Vietnam and 95% on Cambodia [6] - Trans-shipping detail with 40% tariffs is a direct hit to China [7] Inflation & Consumer Impact - Tariffs will bring in revenue but may also raise prices [7] - There hasn't been a great deal of tariff pass-through to consumers so far [8] - If tariff rates are higher than 10-15%, the market will pause to see how well consumers hold up [9] Market Reaction - Stocks moved up in the morning following the trade deal announcement, but the reaction wasn't significant [2] - The market wants to see progress on trade deals [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, indicating potential rate cuts in September due to weak consumer spending and subdued core PCE inflation [1][8]. Core Insights - Consumer spending has shown signs of persistent weakness, particularly in services, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat real terms, leading to an overall decline in personal spending [5][7]. - Core PCE inflation increased by 0.179% MoM, slightly above expectations, but still subdued enough to support the case for rate cuts [4][8]. - The report highlights a significant decline in travel-related spending, particularly in air travel and hotel accommodations, which have seen declines every month this year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Spending - Personal spending fell by 0.1% MoM in nominal terms and 0.3% in real terms, with goods spending declining by 0.8% MoM [5]. - Services spending showed unexpected weakness, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat in real terms, indicating a broader trend of reduced consumer demand [5][7]. Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was reported at 0.179% MoM, slightly stronger than consensus but still indicative of a soft inflation environment [4][8]. - The report suggests that weak consumer demand limits the ability of firms to pass through tariff price increases, reducing the risk of broad-based inflation [8]. Employment Implications - The report indicates that weaker consumer demand could lead to softer hiring, raising downside risks to the Federal Reserve's employment mandate [8].

Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending slowed more than expected last month [1] - Americans reined in their purchases [1]

U.S. retail sales fell in May as consumers pulled back on their spending ahead of feared price increases caused by tariffs. https://t.co/mBesI3rbmg ...

Group 1 - Mastercard participated in the J.P. Morgan 53rd Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 13, 2025, with CFO Sachin Mehra representing the company [1]. - The discussion included insights on consumer spending and macroeconomic conditions, highlighting the importance of leading indicators for investors [5]. - The company is focused on tracking macroeconomic changes and is prepared to pivot its strategies to meet financial targets as necessary [5][6].

Core Insights - Block shares experienced a significant decline of over 20%, marking their second-worst day, primarily due to a disappointing quarterly report and multiple analyst downgrades focused on Cash App [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported a miss in first-quarter earnings across revenue, gross profit, and payment volume, leading to a reduction in full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and weaker consumer spending [3] - Cash App generated $1.38 billion in gross profit in the first quarter, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the $1.42 billion consensus estimate [4] User Growth and Engagement - Concerns were raised regarding stagnant user growth for Cash App, with monthly active users remaining flat at 57 million and inflows increasing by only 8% despite new features [2][4] - Analysts highlighted that the stagnation in active users is more alarming than the reduction in spending, prompting downgrades from firms such as Wells Fargo and Benchmark [2]