As is the case in seemingly every other year, advisors and investors have a slew of choices when it comes to possible contrarian ideas for 2026. Perhaps surprisingly, bonds are on the lists of some experts, indicating the Neuberger Berman Total Return Bond ETF (NBTR) could be among the ETFs to monitor as 2026 draws closer. Obviously, fixed income is a massive asset class – one of the world's largest. Still, the idea of bonds and ETFs like NBTR as against- the-grain plays is born more of market participants' ...

Group 1: Value Investing Insights - Value investing focuses on identifying overlooked stocks based on fundamentals, particularly in a market dominated by technology and growth themes [1] - Consumer staples, such as Hershey and PepsiCo, are currently undervalued and present investment opportunities as sentiment shifts [2] Group 2: Hershey Company Analysis - Hershey's stock is currently priced at $190.03 with a consensus Reduce rating and a price target of $173.89, indicating an 8% downside [2] - Goldman Sachs analyst upgraded Hershey to a Buy with a target price of $222, suggesting a 16% upside potential [3] - Institutional investors are increasing their stakes, with State Street raising its investment in Hershey to $1.2 billion, representing 3.5% of the company [4] - Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $2.11 for Q1 2026, a 75% increase from the current EPS of $1.21, which typically drives stock prices higher [4][5] Group 3: PepsiCo Analysis - PepsiCo's stock is currently priced at $141.76, trading at 73% of its 52-week high and down 7.2% year-to-date, indicating it has been overlooked despite strong fundamentals [8] - PepsiCo offers a dividend yield of 4%, higher than U.S. Treasury bonds, providing immediate returns while waiting for stock momentum to improve [10] - The potential for a shift in sentiment exists if Wall Street analysts begin to upgrade PepsiCo's ratings and valuation targets, similar to the trend seen with Hershey [9]

Group 1 - SAP, one of the largest global software companies, has experienced a share price decline of approximately 12% from its recent highs amid a broader selloff in the software sector [1] - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring companies with strong qualitative attributes at attractive prices based on fundamentals, with a long-term holding approach [1] - The portfolio management aims to avoid underperforming stocks while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners, often resulting in a 'Hold' rating for companies with limited growth opportunities or high downside risks [1]

Group 1 - The company focuses on macro investment strategies, particularly in under-valued sectors and thematic ideas such as metals, gold, and cryptocurrency [1] - The investment approach emphasizes diligent saving and investing as a means to achieve financial success, demonstrated by the management of a seven-figure investment account [2] - The portfolio includes a diverse range of assets, including broad market ETFs, sector-specific funds, alternative investments like Bitcoin and gold, and individual stocks [3] Group 2 - The investment group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory specializes in macro analysis and offers managed income portfolios targeting reliable yields of approximately 8% [3] - The majority of holdings in the investment group are monthly-payers, which facilitates faster compounding and steady income streams for investors [3] - Additional features of the investment group include 24/7 chat support and trade alerts, catering to both active and passive investors of varying experience levels [3]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed as problematic due to current geopolitical issues, tariffs, and the state of science and research [1] - The North American market is particularly affected by high drug prices, which complicates the investment landscape [1] Group 2 - The author expresses a personal investment position in specific pharmaceutical companies, indicating a long position in SNY and MRK [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is perceived to be overreacting to the situation of United Parcel Service (UPS), leading to a significant decline in its stock price, which has dropped over 35% in the last year [1]. Company Analysis - UPS's stock has experienced a substantial decline, indicating potential undervaluation in the current market environment [1]. - The analysis emphasizes a focus on the underlying business performance and financial metrics rather than market narratives [1]. Market Context - The broader market sentiment appears to be negatively impacting UPS, suggesting that external factors may be influencing investor behavior [1].

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson is experiencing increased investor interest despite facing significant operational challenges and a declining stock price, which has led to its presence on several watchlists [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - The company's financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2024 were disappointing, showing a net loss in Q4, declines in revenue, and lower earnings-per-share (EPS) compared to 2023 [3]. - The cautious financial outlook for 2025 is influenced by ongoing challenges, including potential European Union tariffs on U.S. motorcycle imports [4]. Market Challenges - Harley-Davidson is grappling with cyclical headwinds, high interest rates affecting consumer confidence, and the need to manage dealer inventory amid softer demand [3]. - The company is facing external uncertainties, particularly regarding potential tariffs from the European Union, which could impact pricing and competitiveness in key markets [4]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges, the stock is trading near multi-year lows, with a trailing P/E ratio of about 6.8 and a forward P/E of 6.6, suggesting significant pessimism is already priced in [6]. - The enduring strength of the Harley-Davidson brand and recent operational successes in the U.S. Touring segment are factors that some investors believe can help the company weather the current downturn [7][12]. Contrarian Opportunity - The negative sentiment surrounding Harley-Davidson has created a contrarian investment opportunity, as the brand is viewed as fundamentally sound despite its current low valuation [8][12]. - Significant short interest, with approximately 14.37 million shares sold short, indicates strong bearish sentiment but also the potential for heightened volatility if positive news emerges [9][10]. Strategic Actions - Management's decision to repurchase $450 million of shares in 2024 under a $1 billion authorization may signal confidence in the company's valuation [11]. - The ongoing CEO search presents an opportunity for new leadership to leverage the Hardwire strategy and address external risks, particularly regarding tariffs [13].