So the Federal Reserve came into this year a little nervous about the economic outlook and everything that's happened since, particularly the war on Iran, is only going to heighten their sense of caution. We've got to recognize that inflation has been very sticky for a period of time. You know, the basis for cutting into that is not 100% clear to me yet.The Fed is not going to cut interest rates this week at its meeting, but it will give us some clues to how it's thinking about this big price shock and ener ...

Key Takeaways Q4 GDP 0.7% - Half of Where We Were in the 1st PrintPCE Numbers Were Mostly In-Line in JanuaryDurable Goods Orders Flat, Lower than ExpectedFriday, March 13th, 2026It’s Friday the 13th and ahead of the Ides of March this weekend. Not sure this is apropos of anything, but this morning brings us a heap of economic data. We can decide for ourselves whether we need to beware of anything. Pre-market futures are up following the release of this data, bringing in a spring green a week ahead of the se ...

Core Insights - The PCE index rose 0.3% month-over-month in January and is up 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 2.9% [2] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, aligning with economists' expectations [3] - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring inflation data, with a focus on achieving a long-term target of 2% [4] Price Trends - Prices for goods increased 1.3% year-over-year in January, down from 1.7% in December [5] - Durable goods prices rose 2.2% year-over-year in January, while nondurable goods prices increased only 0.8%, the lowest since August [6] - Services prices saw a 3.5% increase year-over-year in January, slightly up from 3.4% [6] Savings Rate - The personal savings rate was 4.5% in January, an increase from 4% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since July [7]

Core Insights - Gold has shown resilience until recent tariff escalations, leading to a 2.43% decline in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) despite a 19.1% year-to-date gain and a 75.96% return over the past year [2][7] - The SPDR Gold Trust holds $174.1 billion in net assets and has a 0.40% net expense ratio, making it a leading vehicle for gold investment in the U.S. market [3][7] - Retail sentiment shifted from bullish to neutral during the recent selloff, indicating a reconsideration of investment strategies rather than a complete abandonment of gold [3] Economic Factors - Real interest rates are identified as the most significant factor influencing GLD's performance over the next year, with the current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.09%, down from 4.29% [4] - Core PCE inflation index rose to 127.92 in December 2025, up from 125.27 in March 2025, suggesting that if tariffs increase goods prices while the Fed maintains rates, gold could benefit from compressed real yields [5] - Analysts from HSBC and UBS have set targets for gold prices based on scenarios involving rate cuts, which are not guaranteed [5] Market Dynamics - The Fed's dot plot and monthly Core PCE releases are critical indicators to watch, as a rise in the 10-year yield towards 4.58% could exert significant pressure on GLD [6]

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some easing in the overall fear level, while the index remained in the “Fear” zone on Friday.U.S. stocks settled higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 200 points during the session after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs.In a historic decision, the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, grounding its reasoning in separation-of-pow ...

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Core Insights - Inflation improved in October 2025, with annual inflation at 2.7%, before rising to 2.8% in November, aligning with Wall Street's expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, showed a similar trend, with core PCE at 2.8% for September and matching estimates for October and November [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to conclude its policymaking meeting on January 28, with only a 5% chance of interest rate cuts in the upcoming vote, following a reduction to between 3.5% and 3.75% in December [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely pause on further cuts, emphasizing a "wait and see" approach regarding economic developments [3] Contextual Background - President Donald Trump claimed significant cooling of inflation, stating there was "virtually no inflation" and that he had "defeated" inflation over the past year [4] - The Federal Reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, which has been exceeded for 57 consecutive months, raising concerns about the labor market and the impact of high inflation on lower- and middle-income Americans [4]

Core Insights - Economists anticipate that the upcoming report will indicate core PCE remaining steady at 2.8%, which is expected to reinforce a cautious approach from policymakers regarding interest rate cuts [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and new home sales, which are critical for assessing inflation and economic growth trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI and Core CPI Performance**: - December core CPI rose by 0.24% month-over-month, which was below expectations, with a year-over-year rate of 2.64% [6][9] - Key components such as airfares (+5.2%), hotels (+3.5%), and apparel (+0.6%) showed significant rebounds after previous distortions due to shutdowns [6][8] - The rent and owners' equivalent rent components also rebounded, indicating a return to normal inflation rates after methodological adjustments [6][7] 2. **Sector Contributions**: - The communications category declined by 1.9%, contributing -7 basis points to the core CPI, while household furnishings and operations fell by 0.5%, contributing -3 basis points [6] - Notably, the software category rose by 7%, which has a significant weight in the core PCE [8] 3. **PCE Price Index Estimates**: - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.37% in December, leading to a year-over-year rate of +2.85% [9] - The headline PCE price index is also expected to have increased by 0.37% in December, reflecting a 2.74% increase from the previous year [9] 4. **New Home Sales Data**: - New home sales increased by 1.8% month-over-month for October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 737,000 units, which was above expectations [10] - Sales in August were revised down to 711,000 units, indicating a stronger performance in September and October than previously anticipated [10] 5. **GDP Tracking Adjustments**: - The stronger-than-expected single-family home sales led to an upward revision of the Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1 percentage points to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) [11] - The domestic final sales estimate for Q4 stands at +0.9% [11] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider these economic indicators as part of a broader analysis when making investment decisions [3] - The data reflects ongoing adjustments in the housing market and inflation trends, which are crucial for understanding the economic landscape [6][10][11]

Inflation Data - U.S Consumer inflation data for August is in line with expectations [1] - Core PCE MoM actual value is 0.2%, matching the forecasted value of 0.2% [1] - Core PCE YoY actual value is 2.9%, matching the forecasted value of 2.9% [1]