Credit Risk Mitigation
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OPFI Stock Jumps 36% in a Year: Should You Hold or Fold Now?
ZACKS· 2026-01-05 18:55
Core Insights - OppFi Inc. (OPFI) shares have increased by 36.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry's decline of 7.9% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's growth of 18.4% [1][9] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, OPFI's total net originations rose by 5.2% sequentially and 12.5% year over year, indicating a positive trend in revenue generation [5] - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the net charge-off as a percentage of total revenues decreased by 430 basis points, while the net charge-off as a percentage of average receivables fell by 480 basis points, reflecting improved loan quality [6] - Adjusted net income surged by 82.7% for the same nine-month period, leading management to raise the adjusted net income guidance for 2025 to a range of $137-$142 million from the previous estimate of $125-$130 million [7] Valuation Metrics - OPFI shares are trading at 6.04 times forward 12-month earnings per share, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.5 times [10] - The trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio for OPFI is 5.07 times, compared to the industry average of 11.21 times, indicating that OPFI is undervalued [10] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OPFI's 2025 revenues is $598 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 13.6% [13] - The consensus estimate for OPFI's 2025 earnings per share is $1.57, indicating a substantial year-over-year increase of 65.3% [13] Market Challenges - OPFI serves subprime/non-prime borrowers, which inherently increases the risk of credit defaults, with 28% of consumers in the 580-669 credit score range at risk of serious delinquency [14] - The company faces intense competition from firms like SoFi and Dave, which may impact its market share [15][16]
Dave vs. OppFi: Which Fintech Stock Is the Smarter Bet Right Now?
ZACKS· 2025-12-24 18:41
Core Insights - Both OppFi Inc. (OPFI) and Dave (DAVE) are key players in the fintech sector, focusing on digital lending solutions for customers [1] - DAVE offers interest-free cash advances, while OPFI collaborates with banks to serve the underbanked population [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - DAVE's ExtraCash service allows customers to borrow up to $500 without interest, achieving a 49% year-over-year growth in originations in Q3 2025, resulting in a 63% increase in top-line growth and a 137% rise in adjusted EBITDA [3][9] - OPFI reported a 13.5% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, with adjusted net income growing by 41.4% and adjusted EPS rising by 39.1% [7][9] Group 2: Credit Risk Management - DAVE's average 28-day delinquency rate decreased by 7 basis points to 2.33% in Q3 2025, aided by the CashAI v5.5 rollout, which also improved the 28-day days past due metric [4][9] - OPFI's Model 6 led to a 430 basis point reduction in net charge-offs as a percentage of total revenues year-over-year, indicating effective credit risk management [8] Group 3: Financial Guidance and Estimates - DAVE raised its revenue guidance for the year to $544-$547 million, up from $505-$515 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $215-$218 million from $180-$190 million [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DAVE's 2025 sales is $546.1 million, reflecting a 57.3% year-over-year increase, while OPFI's estimate is $597.6 million, suggesting a 13.6% growth [12][13] Group 4: Valuation Comparison - OPFI is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 6.47X, significantly lower than DAVE's 15.81X, making OPFI a more attractive investment option [14] - Both companies are rated Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for investors [17]
Dave Stock Soars 127% in YTD: Is This the Right Time to Invest?
ZACKS· 2025-12-11 18:06
Core Insights - Dave Inc.'s shares have surged 126.6% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 25.2% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 20.1% rise [1] - Over the past year, Dave's stock has increased by 129%, while its peers Parsons and VerifyMe have seen declines of 30.9% and 15.7%, respectively [4] Financial Performance - The company's average 28-day delinquency rate decreased by 7 basis points to 2.33%, indicating improved financial health [5] - Revenue increased by 63% year-over-year, driven by effective credit risk mitigation through the CashAI engine [5] - Adjusted net income surged by 193% year-over-year, with customer acquisition costs maintained at $19 [6] - Revenue guidance for the full year was raised to $544-$547 million from $505-$515 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to $215-$218 million from $180-$190 million [6] Profitability and Liquidity - Dave's return on equity (ROE) stands at 77.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 15.3% [8] - The return on capital invested (ROIC) is 48.8%, compared to the industry average of 7.6% [8] - The current ratio improved to 8.7 from 6.81 year-over-year, well above the industry average of 1.58, indicating strong liquidity [10] Valuation Metrics - Dave trades at 14.13 times forward 12-month EPS, below the industry average of 27.2 times [12] - The trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio is 17.56, also below the industry average of 18.86, suggesting undervaluation [12] Growth Prospects - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $546.1 million, reflecting a 57.3% increase from the previous year [14] - Earnings per share for 2025 are estimated at $12.96, indicating a 147.3% increase from the prior year [14] - Analysts have revised EPS estimates upward for both 2025 and 2026, with a 24.7% increase for 2025 and a 12% increase for 2026 [15]