Global Research ab 11 August 2025 First Read PDD Holdings Inc Cross border e-com channel checks US: 2Q a potential trough Wider tariff and de minimis impact in 2Q. With a full-quarter US tariff impact and the removal of de minimis exemption since May, the higher tax and extended shipment times have made Temu's fully managed model (direct shipment from China to US consumers) largely unfeasible. Our checks indicate that Temu's fully managed model GMV declined by 70-80% in 2Q, with the remaining 20-30% gradual ...

Core Viewpoint - Global-e Online has demonstrated strong revenue growth and profitability, yet its stock has declined due to market concerns over new tariffs and the end of the U.S. de minimis customs exemption [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Global-e Online reported a revenue growth of 28%, surpassing analysts' expectations, and achieved profitability for the second time in three quarters [1]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance to a projected 31% sales growth [1]. - Over the past three quarters, revenue growth rates were 42%, 30%, and 28%, indicating consistent performance despite stock sell-offs [3]. Group 2: Market Concerns - The stock has dropped 7% due to worries about the impact of new tariffs and the expiration of the U.S. de minimis customs exemption on operations [2][4]. - The market's negative outlook is attributed to the complexities introduced in cross-border trade by these regulatory changes [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Global-e has introduced a new 3B2C solution aimed at helping global brands mitigate costs associated with tariffs, showcasing the company's adaptability in uncertain environments [6]. - The company’s ability to create solutions for cross-border trade challenges may provide long-term benefits despite short-term pressures from tariffs [6]. Group 4: Valuation - Currently, Global-e is trading at 35 times free cash flow, suggesting it is a strong business with a reasonable valuation [7].

Core Viewpoint - Global-e Online's stock has declined by 50% from its highs due to short-term tariff challenges, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors as the company is trading near its lowest-ever valuation [2][15][18] Company Overview - Global-e Online provides an end-to-end platform that simplifies international sales for merchants, addressing the complexities of cross-border e-commerce [4][5] - The company has grown its revenue sevenfold since 2020, yet holds less than 1% market share of the $1.1 trillion cross-border e-commerce industry, indicating significant growth potential [5][6] Growth Opportunities - **Adding New Merchants**: In 2020, Global-e added merchants generating $287 million in gross merchandise volume (GMV), which quadrupled by 2024, now exceeding 1,400 merchants [7][8] - **Growing Alongside Customers**: The annual GMV per active merchant cohort has increased four times since 2019, with merchants growing their GMV four to five times faster than the overall e-commerce industry [9][10] - **Geographic and B2B Expansion**: Global-e is expanding its operations to new countries and has expertise in the B2B sector, which is projected to be worth $20 trillion by 2024 [11][12] - **Partnership with Shopify**: The collaboration with Shopify has allowed Global-e to process transactions for over 10,000 merchants in more than 175 countries, enhancing its market presence [13][14] Financial Outlook - Despite current tariff-related uncertainties, Global-e expects to grow sales by 24% in its upcoming earnings report, with management projecting free cash flow margins to increase from 22% to between 26% and 28% in the long term [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - JX Luxventure Group Inc. has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Qingxiang (Hainan) Cross-Border E-Commerce Co., Ltd., committing to a minimum purchase of $15 million in cross-border products, leveraging Hainan's Free Trade Port policies to enhance supply chain efficiency and market expansion [1][2]. Company Overview - JX Luxventure Group Inc. is a technology company based in Haikou, China, specializing in integrated tourism services, including duty-free cross-border goods and comprehensive e-commerce technology solutions [3]. Strategic Partnership Details - The agreement with HCBEC includes the purchase of duty-free skincare, health supplements, and lifestyle goods, highlighting the company's leadership in cross-border e-commerce and duty-free supply chain solutions [2]. - The partnership aims to capitalize on Hainan's progressive trade policies, which are expected to drive demand in the duty-free market [2]. Leadership Commentary - The CEO of JX Luxventure Group emphasized that this cooperation marks a significant milestone in connecting global brands with China's growing duty-free market, ensuring seamless execution through integrated logistics and compliance expertise [2].

Core Viewpoint - Linkage Global Inc reported a significant decline in total revenues and net loss for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a sharp drop in cross-border sales, while integrated e-commerce services showed substantial growth. Financial Performance - Total revenues decreased by approximately $1.30 million, or 27.02%, from approximately $4.80 million for the six months ended March 31, 2024, to approximately $3.50 million for the same period in 2025 [3] - Revenues from cross-border sales fell by approximately $3.74 million, or 82.35%, from approximately $4.54 million to approximately $0.80 million [4] - Revenues from integrated e-commerce services surged by $2.44 million, or 930.08%, from approximately $0.26 million to $2.70 million [5] Cost and Profitability - Cost of revenues fell 80.34%, from approximately $4.09 million to approximately $0.80 million, mainly due to reduced cross-border sales costs [7] - Gross profit increased by approximately $1.99 million, or 280.57%, from approximately $0.71 million to approximately $2.70 million, driven by the new fully managed e-commerce business [8] - Cross-border sales margin improved from 12.70% to 21.31%, while integrated e-commerce services margin rose from 50.67% to 93.56% [9] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses rose by 91.01%, from approximately $2.27 million to approximately $4.34 million, primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses [10] - Selling and marketing expenses dropped 31.15%, from approximately $0.23 million to approximately $0.16 million [11] Net Loss - Net loss increased by approximately $1.68 million, or 119.62%, from approximately $1.41 million to approximately $3.09 million [14] Other Financial Metrics - Non-operating income rose from $998 to approximately $0.39 million, while net interest expenses increased significantly from approximately $0.06 million to approximately $1.50 million due to the issuance of $10 million in convertible bonds [12] - Income tax provision decreased by approximately $0.56 million, resulting in approximately $0.34 million of tax expenses for the six months ended March 31, 2025 [13]

Group 1 - TikTok e-commerce is emerging as a new engine for cross-border trade, particularly in Mexico, Spain, and Malaysia, driven by a "content + interest" model [1] - The global e-commerce market is projected to reach $18.77 trillion in 2024, with Mexico leading in e-commerce retail growth at 25.1% [1][7] - TikTok's global user base has surpassed 2.05 billion, with an average daily usage time of 95 minutes, providing a solid foundation for e-commerce development [1][10] Group 2 - Mexico's TikTok Shop launched in January 2025, showing rapid sales growth in beauty, electronics, and health categories, despite competition from local platforms [1][30] - Spain's TikTok Shop is expected to launch by the end of 2024, with early indicators showing a doubling of sales in key categories [1][31] - Malaysia's e-commerce market is projected to reach $12.26 billion by 2025, with TikTok users exceeding 19 million, focusing on beauty and fashion categories [1][31] Group 3 - The global e-commerce market is experiencing rapid expansion, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% from 2024 to 2034 [7] - TikTok's user demographics show a strong presence among younger audiences, with 69.4% of users aged 18-34, making it a key target for e-commerce initiatives [15][19] Group 4 - TikTok Shop's total gross merchandise volume (GMV) is expected to exceed $30 billion in 2024, reflecting significant growth across various markets [26][27] - The platform's content ecosystem, including live streaming, is driving engagement and sales, particularly among younger consumers [34]

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on InPost with a price target of EUR 19.5, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% [1]. Core Insights - InPost's share price has decreased by 12% year-to-date and 8% following the 1Q25 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. The management's cautious outlook on parcel volumes in Poland is attributed to weaker consumer sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties [1][15]. - Despite the cautious tone, there are indications of potential volume upside as Allegro anticipates a slight acceleration in GMV growth in 2Q, and April retail sales showed marked improvement compared to 1Q25 [1][15]. - Operationally, InPost has demonstrated strong execution, with a 10% year-over-year increase in volumes in Poland and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 47.9% [2][16]. Financial Performance - InPost's revenue forecast for 2025 is PLN 14,893.6 million, with an expected EBITA of PLN 2,688.2 million and EPS of PLN 3.22 [4][12]. - The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8x for the next 12 months, which is about a 20% discount compared to its three-year average [3][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin in the Eurozone improved to 13.5%, driven by a 29% year-over-year increase in B2C volumes and a 70 percentage point surge in APM usage [2][16]. Market Dynamics - InPost's performance in Poland remains resilient, with a 10% volume growth year-over-year, supported by an 18% increase in SME volumes [2][16]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a shift towards B2C, with volumes growing by 11% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][16]. - The integration of Yodel is a key focus for InPost in the UK, with early results showing a pro forma volume increase of 4x year-over-year and significant improvements in cost-to-serve [2][16]. Strategic Initiatives - InPost is well-positioned to unlock synergies from the Yodel integration and expand its APM reach in underserved rural areas, which is expected to enhance both volumes and margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond [15][16]. - The company is deepening its cross-border and merchant ecosystem, with cross-border sales now accounting for 20% of Eurozone volume [16][17]. Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates that real retail sales in Poland grew by 6.4% in April, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment [18][21]. - E-commerce sales in Poland also showed growth, with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in April, driven by order growth and an increase in average order value [22][23].

Core Insights - The TikTok market in the US is undergoing significant changes, with sellers experiencing both challenges and opportunities as they adapt to the evolving landscape [2][9][30] - The performance of brands like Babycare in the US market has been underwhelming, indicating that even established brands face difficulties in adapting to TikTok's unique selling environment [10][13][16] - The TikTokShop in the US is projected to have substantial growth potential, with current daily GMV at approximately $33 million, suggesting a tenfold growth opportunity [24][30] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Many sellers are either withdrawing from the US TikTok market or pivoting to other regions, reflecting a sense of urgency and confusion among businesses [2][4] - The top-performing stores on TikTokShop in the US show a diverse range of categories, with significant sales figures indicating potential for growth in specific niches [5][6] - The challenges faced by sellers include high competition and the need for effective influencer partnerships, which are crucial for driving sales [21][22] Group 2: Brand Performance - Babycare, a leading brand in the mother and baby products category, has seen a decline in sales, raising questions about its strategy and market fit in the US [10][13] - The mother and baby product category in the US remains underdeveloped, with limited success stories, highlighting the difficulties for brands entering this space [16][19] - The performance of brands like Momcozy indicates that even top players struggle to achieve significant sales, suggesting a challenging environment for new entrants [16][17] Group 3: Future Outlook - TikTok's US market is expected to continue evolving, with potential policy changes and market adjustments that could benefit sellers willing to adapt [29][30] - The platform is exploring new operational models to support sellers, indicating a commitment to improving the ecosystem for e-commerce [30][32] - Companies are encouraged to remain engaged in the US market despite challenges, as the potential for profitability and market share remains significant [31][32]

Company Overview - Linkage Global Inc is a cross-border e-commerce integrated services provider headquartered in Japan, with operations in Japan, Hong Kong, and mainland China [4] - The company has developed a comprehensive service system that includes cross-border sales and integrated e-commerce services, initially launching cross-border sales operations in 2011 [4] - Linkage sources products from Japanese and Chinese manufacturers and brands, along with its private label smart products, and provides digital marketing solutions in cooperation with Google [4] Compliance with Nasdaq - On April 23, 2025, Linkage Global Inc announced that it has regained compliance with the minimum bid price requirement under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) for continued listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market [1] - The company received a notice from Nasdaq on October 31, 2024, indicating it no longer met the minimum bid price requirement, which necessitated maintaining a closing bid price of $1.00 or more for at least 10 consecutive business days [2] - Nasdaq confirmed that for the 10 consecutive business days from April 7, 2025, to April 22, 2025, the closing bid price of the company's Class A ordinary shares was at or above $1.00, thus closing the compliance matter [3]