港股通 香港交易所 (388 HK) 证券研究报告 香港交易所（港交所）即将公布 3Q25 业绩：我们预计公司 3Q25 总收入为 75.83 亿港币（同比/环比：+41/+5%），归母净利润 47.74 亿港币（同比/ 环比：+52/+7%）。交易活跃度大幅增加是推动业绩增长的主要驱动力，3Q25 港股日均成交额（ADT）为 2,864 亿港币（同比/环比：+141/+20%），有 望助力交易类收入环比增长 31%至 51.37 亿港币。预计投资收益净额环比 降低 41%至 9.17 亿港币，主要由于 HIBOR 降低导致保证金投资息差收窄， 同时公司自有资金的投资收益可能因为美元走弱而下降。展望未来，我们预 计人民币走强、联储降息、南下资金参与度提升、IPO 市场表现强劲将呵护 港股 ADT 的长期走势，并利好港交所的业绩和估值。维持"买入"。 交易：ADT 再创新高，互联互通交易活跃度提升 预计 3Q25 交易类收入提升至 51.4 亿港币（环比：+31%）。港股交易活跃 度创新高。港股 ADT 环比提升 20%达到 2,864 亿港币，同时 3Q25 的交易 日数量相比 2Q25 多 5 天达到 65 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 411.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching HKD 63.8 billion and HKD 37.8 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 31% and 46% [1]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in 4Q24 was HKD 186.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 105% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability in 1Q25 due to continued market enthusiasm and a sufficient IPO pipeline [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trading Business - 4Q24 trading revenue was HKD 37.4 billion, exceeding previous expectations, primarily due to a higher proportion of small transactions leading to a higher effective trading fee rate [2]. - The ADT for Hong Kong stocks increased significantly to HKD 186.9 billion, with derivatives and commodities showing mixed performance [2]. IPO Activity - The number of IPOs in 4Q24 rose to 26, with total financing amounting to HKD 32.4 billion, indicating a healthy IPO environment [3]. - The IPO queue reached 114 companies, suggesting a robust pipeline for future listings [3]. Investment Performance - The investment scale increased to HKD 238.6 billion by the end of 4Q24, although the overall investment yield declined to 2.1% [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual decrease in investment yields due to lower interest rates, but still expects to maintain reasonable returns in the short term [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to HKD 13.9 billion and HKD 13.3 billion, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on active trading conditions [5]. - The target price has been revised upwards to HKD 411.00 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [5].