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观点全追踪(12月第8期):晨会精选-20251219
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-18 23:30
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a strong spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by liquidity easing and unexpected incremental capital inflows, similar to previous years such as 2021 and 2023 [2] - The report identifies key conditions for a robust spring rally, including macroeconomic data exceeding expectations and upward trends in corporate earnings, as seen in 2017 and 2019 [2] - Current liquidity concerns are addressed, indicating that the impact of Japanese carry trade unwinding is likely to be weak, and the peak of stock unlock pressure has passed, with December seeing HKD 126 billion in restricted stock unlocks [2] - The report suggests that the next Federal Reserve chair is expected to adopt a dovish stance, reducing concerns over excessively hawkish monetary policy, which supports the outlook for the Hong Kong spring rally [2] Industry Analysis - The report anticipates that the upcoming year will see significant developments in the DeepSeek model and advancements in domestic internet companies' consumer applications, which may positively catalyze the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology Index [2]