Global Macro Research June 30th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMwb8de_IkRyUQgSEehgsqRWyU9rJnLYnzA}]} Overall summary US Rates While we continue to find value at the front-end, front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, aided in part by cri ...

Global Macro Research June 23, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy US Rates We continue to find value at the front end but look for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than our own forecast, and carry remains unattractive. Add tactical 10s/30s flatteners to position given curves look steep to fair value. We think Treasury will increase coupon auction size increases in February 2026, but Treasury may choose to forgo increases to longer-end a ...

为解析跨国利率联动性，中信建投团队将国债利率拆解为短期利率预期与期限溢价两部分。模型显示，欧美利率期限溢价呈现显著正相关性，远超短期利 率预期的分化程度。这一现象源于跨境投资资产配置需求：美国与欧元区占全球跨境债务投资组合超60%，而新兴市场与发展中国家占比不足7%，导致欧 美债券收益率联动性显著强于美国与其他国家。研究指出，若美债收益率持续走高，欧元区债券利率或面临传染风险，而新兴市场受影响相对有限。不 过，近期日本与新兴市场对美债的敏感性呈现增强趋势，提示全球资本流动格局或现新变化。 研究通过"美元微笑"与"财政皱眉"框架，中信建投团队揭示美债利率与美元指数的动态关系。在"美元微笑"理论中，美国经济深度衰退或强劲扩张时，美元 指数均倾向于升值；而在增长放缓期，美元指数疲软。同时，"财政皱眉"理论指出，财政政策过于紧缩或宽松时，美元指数均承压：紧缩政策导致增长疲 软，美债利率与美元指数正相关；宽松政策推升债券供给并引发财政可持续性担忧，美债收益率上升的同时美元贬值。研究认为，尽管投资者已接受更高 收益率作为持有美债的补偿，但财政可持续性担忧或使外国投资者边际削减美国资产配置，导致现阶段高美债利率与相对疲软美 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 15 May 2025 18:25:24 ET │ 22 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Answering Questions Now CITI'S TAKE On Monday, our attitude to the tariff news was "trade first, ask questions later" when it came to our portfolio. The left tail of US growth risks has been trimmed, so we paid US rates and reduced USD shorts. Now it's time to answer those questions. Markets feel stuck in an information gap, waiting for flows, fiscal, and trade updates. Trade War Subplots — Recent developmen ...