Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall positive outlook on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereign credit and maintaining a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. Core Insights - The report projects a first Fed cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][13]. - Global oil demand is tracking year-over-year growth of 410 thousand barrels per day (kbd), but is 130 kbd lower than the forecasted expansion for June [7]. - The dollar smile phenomenon persists, indicating that the dollar's strength is contingent on the nature of events driving defensive behavior [7]. US Rates - Front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, influenced by administration criticism of the Fed, with a healthy labor market indicated by June employment data [3][16]. - Tactical positions include entering 2-year shorts and adding steepeners in the 5s/7s sector while hedging with flatteners in the 10s/30s sector [19][21]. International Rates - Yield curves have bull steepened across most developed markets, with US rates outperforming due to a sharp drop in oil prices and dovish Fed commentary [4][47]. - Euro rates have bear steepened, driven by updated German fiscal numbers and NATO defense spending agreements [4][47]. Commodities - Jewelry demand weakness is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, although vigilance is advised for potential shifts to other metals [7]. Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, projecting key targets for various currency pairs, including EUR/USD at 1.20-1.22 and GBP/USD at 1.42 [66][85]. - The dollar's weakening is anticipated due to moderation in US growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies outside the US [66][71]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests staying overweight on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereigns, with a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. - US policies are expected to dominate the emerging market outlook in the second half of the year, with a slower growth, no-recession base case [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for risk assets due to recent developments in trade negotiations, suggesting a potential disinflationary impact [2] - The US effective tariff rate is currently at approximately 13%, the highest in 100 years, which may dampen US growth but could also avoid a recession [9] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming fiscal policies and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly regarding the new tax and spending bill [30][31] Summary by Sections Trade War Developments - The trade war is ongoing, but there are indications that the US may lower tariffs if they become economically burdensome [8] - Current tariffs are seen as a medium-term drag on US growth, with potential deflationary effects on services [9] - The report emphasizes the significance of non-China trade deals in shaping future tariff rates and market conditions [12] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The new fiscal bill is expected to increase deficits, with projections suggesting a potential rise to 7% of GDP [30] - Key components of the bill include increased business tax benefits and changes to child tax credits, which may influence market reactions [31] - The correlation between equities and rates is expected to drive USD performance based on fiscal outcomes [31] Currency and FX Strategy - The report advocates for a focus on high-yield currencies, particularly in Latin America, while maintaining a cautious stance on low-yielders [40] - There is a noted trend of outflows from low-yield currencies, with a preference for high-yield investments [38] - The report suggests that the current environment may favor FX carry strategies, particularly from the long side [36]