Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about cryptocurrencies, CFDs, and other financial instruments, highlighting their complexity and associated high risks [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1].

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) reached a 1-week high, increasing by +0.25%, driven by rising T-note yields and a drop in weekly US unemployment claims to a 1-month low of 199,000, which was a decrease of -16,000 from previous figures [1][3] - The markets are currently pricing in a 15% probability of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27-28 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are limiting the dollar's gains, particularly after President Trump suggested he might consider firing Fed Chair Powell [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while other central banks like the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - The Fed's liquidity measures, including the purchase of $40 billion in T-bills monthly since mid-December, are exerting additional pressure on the dollar [5] Group 3: Euro and Market Sentiment - The EUR/USD pair fell to a 1-week low, decreasing by -0.21%, as the dollar's strength negatively impacted the euro, compounded by ongoing concerns regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war [6] - Market activity in the euro is subdued due to the New Year's holiday in Germany, with swaps indicating only a 1% chance of a +25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next meeting on February 5 [6]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.42 (-2.75%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -8.60 (-1.98%) on Tuesday, indicating a decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows due to a rally in the dollar index [1] - Earlier in the month, sugar prices were pressured by expectations of higher sugar exports from India, as the government may permit additional exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [5] Group 2: Production Estimates - Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to decline by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [4] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) is down slightly by -0.03%, reversing an early advance due to a decline in the Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook [1] - The dollar initially gained strength from stock market weakness, which increased liquidity demand, but later weakened after disappointing manufacturing data [1] Economic Indicators - US November pending home sales rose by +3.3% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of +0.9% [5] - The Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook for December unexpectedly fell by -0.5 to -10.9, against expectations of an increase to -6.0 [5] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, contributing to the dollar's underlying weakness [3] Global Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in 2026, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to keep rates unchanged [3] - Swaps indicate a 0% chance of a +25 basis point rate hike by the ECB at the next policy meeting on February 5 [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Concerns regarding President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair are putting additional pressure on the dollar, with Kevin Hassett seen as the most likely candidate [4] - The Fed's recent actions to boost liquidity, including purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, are also contributing to the dollar's weakness [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVEM) achieved a 35% return in 2025, significantly outperforming major Vanguard funds, indicating a potential resurgence for emerging markets [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Assets - AVEM holds $15.1 billion in assets and has a concentrated investment in Asian technology and financial sectors, particularly with 6.35% allocated to Taiwan Semiconductor [1][2]. - The fund outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) by approximately 17 percentage points in 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Macro Factors - A key macroeconomic factor for AVEM in 2026 is the strength of the U.S. dollar; a 9% decline in the dollar during 2025 enhanced the attractiveness of emerging market assets [4]. - Continued dollar weakness is expected to provide tailwinds for AVEM, while monitoring the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and global growth expectations is crucial [5]. Group 3: China’s Economic Influence - AVEM's performance is heavily influenced by China's economic policies, with significant investments in Chinese tech giants and banks; supportive government measures in 2025 contributed to the fund's gains [6]. - If China's support for the private sector continues or accelerates in 2026, AVEM stands to benefit, but tightening policies or geopolitical tensions could pose risks [6]. Group 4: Sector Concentration and Risks - The fund's largest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor, and its returns are significantly driven by semiconductor stocks, which performed well due to increased AI chip demand in 2025 [7]. - This concentration in semiconductors creates vulnerability; any downturn in the semiconductor cycle or supply chain disruptions could adversely affect AVEM [7].

Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank projects the S&P 500 to reach a price target of 7500 by the end of 2026, anticipating the US market to slightly outperform international stocks and a stabilization of the dollar [1][4]. Dollar Performance - The dollar experienced significant weakness in 2025 but is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a forecast of the dollar at 115 and dollar-yen at 145 over the next 12 months [5][4]. - The dollar's performance is influenced by the strength of the US economy, which is generating double-digit returns in equity markets, attracting fund flows [4][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical conditions are expected to be more stable in 2026 compared to 2025, with fewer crises affecting oil markets, which are sensitive to political developments [6][4]. Political Influence on Markets - The midterm election year is anticipated to create a unique market narrative, with positive performance in the first and fourth quarters, but potential sideways movement in the second and third quarters [8][7]. - Tax incentives and a projected 20% year-over-year increase in tax refunds in the first half of the year could stimulate consumer spending and market activity [9][10]. Economic Drivers - The current economic growth is primarily driven by non-residential fixed asset investments, particularly in AI data centers, but there is a need for consumer spending to contribute significantly to GDP growth [12][11].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Prices - January WTI crude oil closed down -0.16 (-0.28%), while January RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0077 (-0.44%) [1] - Gasoline prices reached a 4.75-year nearest-futures low, influenced by dollar strength and stock market weakness, dampening economic outlook and energy demand [1] - Concerns about a global oil glut are pressuring crude prices, as highlighted by Trafigura's prediction of a "super glut" due to new supply and sluggish demand [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Increased geopolitical risks in Venezuela are supportive for crude prices, as US forces intercepted a sanctioned oil tanker, potentially complicating Venezuela's oil exports [3] - The Russian-Ukrainian war continues to support crude prices, with threats from President Putin against nations aiding Ukraine and recent drone attacks on Russian tankers [4] Group 3: Russian Oil Exports - Reduced crude exports from Russia are underpinning crude prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million bpd, the lowest in over 3 years [5] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and infrastructure have exacerbated fuel shortages in Russia, limiting export capabilities [5] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further curtailed Russian oil exports [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.37%, reaching a 3-month high, driven by increased liquidity demand due to a slump in equity markets and support from Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rates [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is exerting pressure on the dollar, with a longer shutdown likely to harm the US economy and increase the chances of Fed interest rate cuts [2] - October Wards total vehicle sales slowed to 15.32 million, below expectations of 15.50 million, marking the lowest sales in 14 months, contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [3] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Outlook - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.36%, reaching a 3-month low, primarily due to the strength of the dollar and comments from ECB officials regarding growth risks in the Eurozone [3] - ECB Governing Council member Stournaras highlighted multiple downside risks to Eurozone growth, including trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, which negatively impacted the euro [4] - ECB member Rehn noted that Eurozone growth remains sluggish but resilient, with inflation risks being two-sided, emphasizing the need for flexibility in interest rate decisions [4]