Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is facing significant challenges that may lead to a "controlled decline" in its dominance as the primary global reserve currency by 2026, influenced by structural headwinds such as fiscal deficits and the rise of digital assets [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar's Global Position - The dollar's share of global reserves has decreased from 72% in 1999 to approximately 57% today, indicating a potential shift in its status [2]. - Analysts suggest that the dollar's era of effortless strength may be over, with concerns about its safe-haven status due to fiscal imbalances [2]. - Predictions indicate that the dollar may be lower in value by 2026, with estimates of a 20-30% decline over the next five years [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - J.P. Morgan holds a "net bearish" outlook for the dollar in 2026, citing a Federal Reserve focused on labor market softness [3]. - Morgan Stanley presents a contrasting view, forecasting a potential drop in the dollar index to 94 in Q2 2026, followed by a recovery to 100 by year-end [3][4]. - J.P. Morgan anticipates the Euro could rise to 1.20 by December 2026, supported by Eurozone growth and fiscal expansion [4]. Group 3: Digital Assets as a Threat - The emergence of digital assets, particularly stablecoins, poses a new structural threat to the dollar's dominance, with the GENIUS Act expected to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins by 2025 [5]. - Stablecoins are seen as a significant upgrade in how money moves, offering faster and more transparent alternatives to traditional systems [5]. - The shift towards "on-chain" capital formation is projected to reach $100 trillion in five years, indicating a diversification away from traditional banking [6]. Group 4: Current Dollar Index Performance - As of the article's publication, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.05% at 97.9840, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.70% but a 1.29% increase over the last six months [6]. - Various ETFs tracking the dollar index have shown mixed performance, with some funds experiencing significant declines [7][8].

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Macro Economics - **Event**: 2025 Global Macro Conference held in New York on November 19 Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook 1. **Short-term Resilience**: The global economy is perceived as resilient in the short term, driven by AI-related business investments and modest tax changes benefiting households in 1H26 [4][6][7] 2. **Long-term Risks**: Concerns persist regarding elevated fiscal deficits, potential backlash against executive power, and political complexities as midterm elections approach [4][6][7] 3. **Growth Projections**: The Wall Street consensus for US growth at 1.8% may be too low, with potential growth exceeding 3% [7][8] Political Dynamics 4. **Trump's Influence**: There is growing dissent against Trump's influence, with discussions on his potential lame duck status in 2026 following recent Democratic victories in elections [8][9] 5. **Midterm Elections**: The upcoming midterm elections are critical, with Democrats needing to win three seats to flip the House, indicating a competitive political landscape [8][9] Trade and Tariff Policies 6. **Tariff Revenue Risks**: The Supreme Court's ruling on the use of emergency powers for tariffs is uncertain, posing risks to tariff revenue collection [9][10][11] 7. **US-China Relations**: The US-China rivalry is likened to a new Cold War, with Taiwan's semiconductor industry viewed as a significant risk factor [10][11] Market Trends 8. **AI Boom**: The AI boom is seen as a significant tailwind for the economy, although identifying individual winners remains uncertain [12][13] 9. **Traditional vs. Crypto Markets**: Traditional markets are expected to outperform crypto and private markets, with a forecast of a weaker USD [15][16] 10. **Commodity Prices**: Gold prices are expected to rise, while oil prices are projected to decline due to excess supply [16][17] Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy 11. **Interest Rate Projections**: Long-term interest rates are anticipated to rise, with a global repricing expected [17][18] 12. **Fiscal Dynamics**: Rising fiscal deficits and higher debt issuance are straining global government debt markets, with potential implications for interest rates and economic stability [64][65] Investor Sentiment 13. **Investor Survey Insights**: A survey conducted during the conference indicated that investors expect modest upside for the S&P 500 and stable US Treasury yields, with AI being viewed as both a significant risk and a tailwind [19][22][23] 14. **Asset Class Performance**: Respondents expect US equities and gold to outperform other asset classes, with a notable percentage anticipating gold prices to exceed $5,000/oz by the end of 2026 [24][46] Dollar Dominance 15. **USD Depreciation Risks**: While dollar dominance is expected to persist, there are risks of gradual depreciation due to internal economic policies and geopolitical factors [86][87][88] Additional Important Insights - **Central Bank Independence**: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with potential implications for monetary policy and market stability [78][79] - **Political Landscape Shifts**: The political landscape is evolving, with potential new candidates emerging for the 2028 presidential race, indicating a shift in party dynamics [83][84][85] This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference, highlighting the interplay between economic forecasts, political dynamics, and market trends.

Dollar Dominance - The dollar's dominance is being chipped away, but there is no question about its overall strength [1] - No viable alternative to the dollar exists in the short term as a reserve currency [2] - Alternatives like the Japanese yen, the euro, precious metals (gold), and Bitcoin each have their own problems [2] US Economic Strength - The US is backed by the world's largest economy with deep, liquid capital markets and military strength [3] - The US remains the world's number one economy [3] - Despite global debate, the dollar is not expected to be dethroned at this stage [3]

Market Analysis - Gold is outperforming Bitcoin due to factors beyond tariffs [1] - China is strategically building gold-based financial infrastructure to challenge the US dollar's dominance [1] - Beijing injected 1 trillion yuan this year, intentionally devaluing it against gold [1] Bitcoin Challenges - Bitcoin experienced leverage liquidations due to tariff volatility [1] Proposed Solution - Advocate for funding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to enable BTC to compete as a leading form of hard currency [2]

Market Analysis & Prediction - Ethereum's market capitalization has the potential to surpass Bitcoin's, drawing a parallel to Wall Street's growth relative to gold after 1971 [1][3] - The shift of assets like stocks and real estate onto the blockchain by 2025 presents a significant opportunity for Ethereum to establish dominance [3] Historical Context & Economic Shift - In 1971, the US dollar transitioned to a fully synthetic currency after Nixon removed it from the gold standard [1][2] - Post-1971, Wall Street's financial products, including money market funds and mortgage-backed securities, contributed to the dollar's dominance, increasing its share from 27% of GDP to 57% of central bank reserves and 80% of financial transaction quotes [2] Asset Comparison - The current market capitalization of equities stands at $40 trillion, while gold's market capitalization is $2 trillion, representing 5% of all available assets [3] Cryptocurrency Positioning - Bitcoin is positioned as digital gold, while Ethereum is expected to mirror Wall Street's growth relative to gold [3]

Policy & Regulation - The GENIUS Act aims to secure dollar dominance and unlock innovation [1] Market Trends - Markets are moving faster on Sei [1] - Price is measured in dollars per account ($/acc) [1]

What happens once Stablecoins 10x?According to @fundstrat:- Stablecoins are biggest holder of treasuries- Dollar dominance remains strong- $2T in stablecoins = Ethereum network feesThis will seem obvious in retrospect. https://t.co/QuZgCNnWyt ...

Hi everyone, my name is Lorenzo Valente. I'm the head of research uh of digital assets at Arc Invest. We have just published our latest blog on stable coins.uh with the circle IPO this week uh and the supply almost hitting 250 billion, we've published uh this research blog where we go over uh dollar dominance overseas uh why we think you know both tether circle and the broader digital uh the stable coin complex are going to be one of the biggest allies of the US government going forward. And we also talk ab ...