Wall Street has a very short memory. That's both good and bad, since remembering the emotional and financial pain of deep bear markets would likely keep most people from ever investing again. But forgetting history means you are doomed to repeat it. With technology stocks losing so much value so far in 2026, a little historical review can help you decide if it's time to jump into tech stocks or not. The dot-com bubble was huge More than 25 years ago, a revolutionary technology was set to change the worl ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes are experiencing a potential "lost decade" similar to the aftermath of the 2000 dot-com bubble, indicating that overvaluation can lead to prolonged periods of below-average returns [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The internet bubble peaked 26 years ago, serving as a reminder of the risks associated with irrational exuberance in the market [1] - The current performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes shows they are lagging behind their historical average rate of return since March 2000 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market's inflation-adjusted total return since March 2000 reveals that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are underperforming compared to where they would have been if they maintained their historical averages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns that Nvidia Corp.'s significant increase in purchase obligations indicates structural risks similar to those that led to Cisco Systems Inc.'s collapse during the dot-com bubble [1][4]. Group 1: Purchase Obligations - Nvidia's total commitments have reached approximately $117 billion when combined with other supply agreements [2]. - Burry emphasizes that this shift is not a reaction to external shocks but represents a fundamental change in the company's operations, indicating increased risk [2][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Strategy - Nvidia is locking in long-term capacity with suppliers like TSMC before fully understanding future demand, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more than ever before [3][6]. - Burry argues that this change is structural and permanent, suggesting it stems from the company's business plan rather than being a temporary measure [6]. Group 3: Historical Comparison - Burry draws parallels between Nvidia's current situation and Cisco's aggressive supply commitments during the internet boom, which led to significant losses when tech spending declined [4]. - While Nvidia currently enjoys a 70% profit margin, Burry expresses skepticism about its sustainability, warning that margins could quickly revert with a shift in demand [5]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Nvidia's shares have decreased by 0.86% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq 100 index has declined by 0.68% in the same period [6]. - Over the last six months, Nvidia's stock has increased by 1.72% and by 40.84% over the past year, closing at $184.89, down 5.49% on Wednesday [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite is experiencing its worst week since November, despite a rebound on Friday [1] Group 1 - The Nasdaq Composite index is on track for significant declines this week, indicating a challenging market environment [1]

Core Insights - David Einhorn, a prominent hedge fund manager, employs a strategy of buying undervalued stocks while shorting overvalued ones, which has led to distinct returns for Greenlight Capital compared to the overall market [1][2] - Despite a notable short position on Lehman Brothers in 2007, Greenlight Capital has underperformed the S&P 500 since then, achieving an average annual return of 12.7% since its inception in 1996, compared to the S&P 500's 10.2% [2] Market Valuation Concerns - Einhorn has raised alarms about the current U.S. equity market valuations, suggesting they are the highest seen since the management of Greenlight Capital began, indicating a potential market downturn [3][4] - The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 22, and the CAPE ratio exceeds 40, both of which are historically high and suggest lower future market returns [5] - The Buffett Indicator, which compares total stock market capitalization to GDP, currently stands at about 224%, significantly above the favorable range of 70% to 80%, indicating an overvalued market [6]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for the year, with notable returns in both large and small cap composites despite overvalued markets [1] - The firm emphasizes a disciplined investment approach, prioritizing safety and long-term gains, reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com bubble dynamics [1] Investment Performance - Large Cap Composite (Net) returned -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD - Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD - Focus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 7.1% YTD - Focus Plus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 6.2% YTD - All-Cap Composite (Net) returned 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD [1] Company Highlight: Ituran Location and Control Ltd. - Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (NASDAQ:ITRN) is recognized as a significant contributor within Vulcan's Small Cap Strategy [2] - The company specializes in telematics products and services, particularly in stolen vehicle recovery, with a market cap of $877.904 million [2][3] - Ituran's stock traded between $30.06 and $45.90 over the past year, closing at $44.13 on January 26, 2026, with a one-month return of 4.08% and a three-month gain of 14.62% [2] Business Performance of Ituran - Ituran's revenue increased by 5% year-to-date, with 70% of its revenue derived from ongoing subscriptions [3] - The EBITDA margin has slightly contracted due to currency headwinds [3] - Recent agreements with Stellantis and Renault in Latin America are expected to bolster its business [3] - The company is viewed as trading at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for Q4 2025, with notable year-to-date returns despite overvalued markets [1] - The firm emphasizes a disciplined investment approach, prioritizing safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] Investment Strategies Performance - Large Cap Composite (Net) returned -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD - Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD - Focus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 7.1% YTD - Focus Plus Composite (Net) returned 0.1% in Q4 and 6.2% YTD - All-Cap Composite (Net) returned 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD [1] Company Highlight: Everest Group, Ltd. - Everest Group, Ltd. (NYSE:EG) was added to Vulcan's Small-Cap strategy during Q4 2025, with a market capitalization of $3.101 billion [2] - The stock traded between $302.44 and $372.00 over the past 52 weeks, closing at $327.10 on January 26, 2026 [2] - The one-month return for Everest Group was -4.15%, while it gained 7.28% over the last three months [2] Historical Context and Valuation - Vulcan Value Partners has a long history with Everest Group, having previously owned it for 11 years before selling in 2020 to focus on companies with larger margins of safety [3] - The firm repurchased Everest Group in Q3 2023 for its Large Cap strategy and again in its Small Cap strategy due to its undervaluation [3] - Despite steady value per share growth, Everest Group's stock price declined in 2024 and 2025, allowing for repurchase at a discount to tangible book value [3] - The company is utilizing its free cash flow for stock repurchases, positively impacting value per share growth [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for Q4 2025, with the Large Cap Composite returning -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD, and the All-Cap Composite returning 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD, despite overvalued markets [1] Investment Performance - The Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD, while the Focus Composite (Net) and Focus Plus Composite (Net) both returned 0.1% in Q4, with YTD returns of 7.1% and 6.2% respectively [1] - The firm emphasized a focus on safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dot-com bubble [1] Company Specifics - Vulcan Value Partners exited its holdings in SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SSNC) during Q4 2025, which had a one-month return of -4.23% and a 52-week gain of 7.31% [2] - As of January 22, 2026, SS&C Technologies had a market capitalization of $20.961 billion, with shares closing at $85.83 [2] Investment Rationale - The company had initially invested in SS&C Technologies in the summer of 2023, anticipating positive outcomes from its investments in sales, marketing, and product development [3] - SS&C Technologies exceeded expectations in organic revenue growth, margins, and free cash flow, leading Vulcan Value Partners to sell its position and reallocate to more attractive opportunities [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its investment strategies for Q4 2025, with the Large Cap Composite returning -1.5% in Q4 and 7.9% YTD, and the All-Cap Composite returning 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD, despite overvalued markets [1] Group 1: Investment Performance - The Small Cap Composite (Net) gained 3.2% in Q4 and 9.5% YTD, while the Focus Composite (Net) and Focus Plus Composite (Net) both returned 0.1% in Q4, with YTD returns of 7.1% and 6.2% respectively [1] - The firm improved its price-to-value ratios while prioritizing safety and long-term gains over short-term performance [1] Group 2: Market Context - The current market situation is compared to the late 1990s dot-com bubble, where high valuations led to a crash, and today's AI disruptions are seen as potentially mirroring that pattern [1] - Investors are at risk of overpaying for promising businesses, prompting the firm to adhere to its investment discipline [1] Group 3: Company Focus - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. - Vulcan Value Partners exited its holdings in Skyworks Solutions, Inc. from its Large Cap and All Cap Strategies during Q4 2025, with the stock trading between $47.93 and $93.33 over the past 52 weeks [2] - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. has a market capitalization of $8.946 billion, and its shares experienced a one-month return of -7.07% and a three-month loss of 19.41% [2] Group 4: Industry Insights - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is a leading designer and manufacturer of semiconductors for wireless communications, with approximately two-thirds of its revenue coming from smartphones [3] - The growth in the semiconductor industry is driven by an increasing number of wireless devices and higher RF content per device, with demand for higher data throughput and smaller chips [3] - Vulcan Value Partners sold Skyworks to capitalize on more discounted opportunities but continues to monitor the business closely, especially in light of Skyworks' bid for Qorvo, which the firm still holds due to its more favorable valuation [3]

Core Insights - Vulcan Value Partners reported positive results across all its strategies for the year, with the All-Cap Composite returning 1.3% in Q4 and 10.7% YTD, despite overvalued markets [1] - The firm emphasizes safety and long-term gains over short-term performance, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dot-com bubble and current AI disruptions [1] Company Highlights: CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) - CarMax, Inc. was added to Vulcan's All-Cap Strategy, with a one-month return of 21.80% and a 52-week loss of 42.19%, closing at $47.83 per share with a market cap of $5.826 billion [2] - CarMax is the largest used car retailer in the U.S. and has faced underperformance due to macroeconomic, competitive, and operational factors, including a depressed used car supply and increased competition from Carvana [3] - Despite competitive pressures, CarMax's customer experience, brand strength, scale, vertical integration, and omnichannel approach are seen as competitive advantages that will help it gain market share in a fragmented market [3] - The company is making operational changes to increase volumes, lower costs, and expand profitability, with expectations of a recovery in earnings as the used car market normalizes [3] - CarMax has a solid balance sheet, generates significant free cash flow, and is actively buying back shares at a discount to intrinsic value [3]