Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's target price by 5.6% from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Projections - The company’s EBITDA forecast has been reduced by 5-7%, with expected sales and EBITDA for 2025 projected to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - For the period of 2025-2027, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% for sales and 6.5% for EBITDA is anticipated, excluding foreign exchange effects [1] Dividend Expectations - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 125% to maintain a total dividend of USD 750 million for 2025, which is consistent with 2024, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.5 that may support the stock price [1] Market Performance Insights - In Q3 2025, organic revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with a more significant drop compared to Q2 [1] - The Chinese market continues to be a drag due to anti-extravagance policies and promotional activities that have accelerated the overall market demand slump [1] - Despite a low base, EBITDA growth in the Chinese market is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [1] - The South Korean market is also experiencing a slowdown in Q3 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment, although price increases are providing some positive momentum that may continue into Q4 2025 [1]