24 February 2026 | 11:40PM HKT Equity Research China Restaurants: Look for an improving market backdrop in 2026E; 2H25 earnings preview Following a solid earnings beat for YUMC for 4Q25 result, we expect major restaurant companies (Guming, Mixue, Haidilao) in our coverage to report better than our earlier expected earnings for 2025. In this note, we update industry forecast and provide earnings preview/updated 2026-27E earnings outlook on Guming (Buy, on CL, revise up earnings outlook and TP), MIXUE (Buy) a ...

Core Viewpoint - TransUnion reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations in both earnings per share and sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.02 per share [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $1.171 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.134 billion [1]. - For FY2026, TransUnion projects adjusted EPS between $4.63 and $4.71, compared to market estimates of $4.82 [1]. - The company anticipates sales of $4.946 billion to $4.981 billion, slightly above estimates of $4.927 billion [1]. Revenue Growth - TransUnion achieved a revenue growth of 13%, driven by strong performance in U.S. Markets [2]. - Financial Services segment grew by 19%, while Emerging Verticals accelerated to a 16% growth [2]. - The growth was broad-based, with credit, marketing, and fraud solutions each experiencing healthy double-digit growth [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, TransUnion shares increased by 4.6%, trading at $74.09 [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Needham analyst Kyle Peterson maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $115 to $95 [4]. - Wells Fargo analyst Jason Haas maintained an Overweight rating and reduced the price target from $100 to $90 [4]. - Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum also maintained a Buy rating, lowering the price target from $103 to $88 [4].

Core Viewpoint - GFL Environmental Inc reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations in both earnings per share and sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 14 cents per share [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $1.209 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.190 billion [1]. Future Outlook - GFL Environmental projects FY2026 sales to be between $7.000 billion and $7.140 billion, compared to estimates of $7.070 billion [1]. Management Commentary - CEO Patrick Dovigi highlighted that the company's workforce of over 15,000 employees delivered results that exceeded expectations [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, GFL Environmental shares fell by 5.7%, trading at $41.51 [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Barclays analyst William Grippin maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $62 to $63 [3]. - Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta maintained a Sector Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $57 to $56 [3]. - RBC Capital analyst Sabahat Khan maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $59 to $60 [3].

Core Insights - Mastercard reported fourth-quarter net revenues of $8.81 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.79 billion [1] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter rose 25% year-over-year to $4.76, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.25 [1] Revenue Growth Expectations - For the first quarter, Mastercard anticipates net revenue growth in the low teens, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $8.3 billion [2] - The company projects high-end low double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2026, against a consensus estimate of $36.8 billion [2] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Following the earnings announcement, Mastercard shares fell 1.3% to $536.16 [2] - Raymond James analyst John Davis maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $707 to $631 [3] - Wells Fargo analyst Jason Kupferberg maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $660 to $668 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Regions Financial Corp reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with earnings per share of 57 cents, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 61 cents, and quarterly sales of $1.921 billion, falling short of the $1.936 billion estimate [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company’s quarterly earnings were 57 cents per share, below the expected 61 cents per share [1]. - Quarterly sales amounted to $1.921 billion, which was less than the anticipated $1.936 billion [1]. Management Commentary - John Turner, Chairman, President, and CEO, highlighted solid growth in 2025, driven by client attraction across various business lines and record results in Wealth Management and Treasury Management [2]. - Turner expressed optimism about improving economic trends supporting the company's momentum and performance foundation for 2026 [2]. - The company is in a strong capital position while modernizing its technology, positioning itself for continued growth and strong shareholder returns [2]. Analyst Reactions - Following the earnings announcement, analysts adjusted their price targets for Regions Financial [3]. - Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $29 to $31 [4]. - Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo maintained an Underweight rating and lowered the price target from $30 to $28 [4].

Financial Performance - Bank of America reported a net income of $7.6 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, a decrease from $6.80 billion a year ago, with an EPS of 98 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 96 cents [1] - Revenue, net of interest expense, increased by 7% year-over-year to $28.532 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $27.944 billion [1] Management Commentary - CEO Brian Moynihan stated that the company delivered on commitments to shareholders with solid growth across revenue, earnings, and returns [2] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Bank of America shares rose by 0.2% to trade at $52.59 [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Christopher McGratty maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $64 to $63 [3] - Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $56 to $57 [3] - Truist Securities analyst John McDonald maintained a Buy rating and lowered the price target from $62 to $60 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Helen of Troy Limited reported weaker profitability and lowered its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook despite revenue exceeding expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.71, aligning with analyst consensus estimates [1] - Quarterly sales reached $512.829 million, a decrease of 3.4% year over year, but surpassed the expected $503.587 million [1] Earnings Outlook - Helen of Troy revised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to a range of $3.25 to $3.75, down from $3.75 to $4.25, which is below the $4.02 analyst estimate [2] - The fiscal 2026 sales outlook was narrowed to $1.758 billion to $1.773 billion from a previous range of $1.739 billion to $1.780 billion, compared to the $1.763 billion consensus estimate [2] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Helen of Troy shares fell by 5.5%, trading at $19.44 [2] Analyst Ratings - Canaccord Genuity analyst Susan Anderson maintained a Hold rating on Helen of Troy and lowered the price target from $23 to $22 [3] - UBS analyst Peter Grom maintained a Neutral rating and cut the price target from $25 to $22 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group Holding reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, with revenue and adjusted earnings surpassing analyst estimates [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly revenue reached $34.81 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $34.43 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) were 61 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 49 cents [1]. - Adjusted net income fell 72% to $1.45 billion, while adjusted EBITA decreased 78% year-over-year to $1.27 billion, attributed to investments in Taobao Instant Commerce and enhancements in user experiences, acquisitions, and technology [2]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Alibaba shares increased by 1.3%, trading at $159.02 [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $200 to $190 [4]. - Barclays analyst Jiong Shao kept an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $190 to $195 [4]. - JP Morgan analyst Alex Yao maintained an Overweight rating while reducing the price target from $240 to $230 [4].

Core Insights - Applied Materials Inc reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results for fiscal 2025, with revenue of $6.8 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $6.67 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, exceeding estimates of $2.10 per share [1] Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter revenue: $6.8 billion, beating estimates of $6.67 billion [1] - Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings: $2.17 per share, exceeding estimates of $2.10 per share [1] Future Outlook - Applied Materials expects fiscal first-quarter revenue of $6.85 billion, with a variance of plus or minus $500 million, compared to estimates of $6.76 billion [3] - The company anticipates first-quarter adjusted earnings between $1.98 and $2.38 per share, against estimates of $2.13 per share [3] - The CFO indicated preparations for higher demand starting in the second half of calendar 2026 [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Applied Materials shares fell by 7% to trade at $207.79 [3] Analyst Ratings - Mizuho analyst maintained a Neutral rating and lowered the price target from $215 to $205 [5] - B. Riley Securities analyst reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target from $265 to $270 [5]

Core Insights - Meta Platforms Inc. reported strong earnings for Q3, with diluted earnings per share of $1.05, impacted by a one-time non-cash income tax charge of $15.93 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were $7.25 [1] - The company's quarterly revenue reached $51.24 billion, exceeding the Street estimate of $49.38 billion and representing a 26.25% increase from $40.58 billion in the same period last year [2] - Meta anticipates fourth-quarter revenue between $56 billion and $59 billion, slightly above the analyst estimate of $57.21 billion, and has increased its FY25 capital expenditure guidance [2] Financial Performance - Diluted earnings per share: $1.05, adjusted earnings per share: $7.25 [1] - Quarterly revenue: $51.24 billion, a 26.25% increase year-over-year [2] - Fourth-quarter revenue guidance: $56 billion to $59 billion [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Consensus rating for Meta is "Buy" with a consensus price target of $831.37, highest price target at $1,117, and lowest at $645 [4] - B of A Securities analyst lowered the price target from $900 to $810 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] - Rosenblatt analyst raised the price target from $1,086 to $1,117 while also maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]