Core Argument - The article critiques the Trump administration's industrial and tariff policies, labeling them as "rule by deal" rather than effective economic nationalism or state capitalism [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Policy and Economic Nationalism - The Trump administration's approach involves making private deals with select companies, leading to a lack of transparency and accountability in the industrial landscape [5][4]. - There is a concern that this method of picking winners and losers could misallocate private capital and enrich certain market actors without a coherent strategy [13][12]. - The need for a comprehensive institutional approach to industrial policy is emphasized, particularly in critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [8][9]. Group 2: National Security and Critical Minerals - The dominance of China in critical minerals and semiconductors necessitates government intervention to ensure national security [7][6]. - A clear mission and institutional capacity are required to develop domestic production capabilities for critical minerals [9][10]. - The development finance corporation is suggested as a suitable entity to facilitate investments in critical industries [10]. Group 3: Tariffs and Trade Policy - The article discusses the implications of tariffs, suggesting that aggressive and sweeping tariffs could harm economic growth and consumer prices [20][22]. - Targeted tariffs may serve specific public policy goals, but broad tariffs across all imports could lead to higher costs for consumers [21][20]. - The potential for a domestic automobile market to emerge due to tariffs raises concerns about competitiveness and consumer choice [18][19].

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), marking the 30th anniversary of this flagship report, which provides a 10-15 year outlook on returns and risks across various asset classes [1][2][8] Market Outlook - The forecast annual return for a USD 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over the next 10-15 years is projected at 6.4%, with an increase to 6.9% for a 60/40+ portfolio that includes 30% in diversified alternatives [2][4] - Despite labor constraints impacting long-term growth, AI adoption is expected to enhance profits in the near term and productivity in the long term [2][4] Economic and Investment Trends - The report highlights the resilience of markets despite slower growth projections, with strong asset return forecasts [4][5] - Economic nationalism is identified as a challenge that may lead to increased domestic investment, presenting opportunities for investors [4] - The ongoing technology boom, particularly in AI, is seen as a critical driver of market momentum, necessitating active management to identify potential winners and losers [4][5] Asset Class Projections - U.S. large cap equities are expected to return 6.7%, while global equities are projected at 7% and emerging markets equities at 7.8% [13] - Private equity is forecasted to return 10.2%, and U.S. core real estate is expected to yield 8.2% [13] - Commodities are projected to return 4.6%, with gold expected to rise to 5.5% [13] Strategic Recommendations - Diversification is emphasized as essential for managing risk and achieving returns in a volatile inflation environment [5] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a goals-based investment strategy to maintain alignment and adaptability in uncertain conditions [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is assessing US government investments in its critical minerals companies on a case-by-case basis due to the rise of economic nationalism in the US, as highlighted by Industry Minister Melanie Joly [1][2]. Group 1: US Investments in Canadian Companies - The Trump administration has announced a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a $35.6 million investment to enhance critical minerals projects in Alaska [1]. - The US also agreed to acquire an interest in Lithium Americas Corp., which is developing the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada [1]. Group 2: Canadian Government's Position - The Canadian government will evaluate foreign investments under the Investment Canada Act, but it is unclear how much power it has to block these US deals [2]. - Canada has previously made it more difficult for foreign, state-owned firms to acquire its mining companies, particularly under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [4]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Challenges - There is concern that if Canada resists these investments, companies may relocate to access US government funds quickly [3]. - Joly emphasized the need for Canada to attract capital while maintaining sovereignty over its critical minerals [5].

Market Overview - The stock market is trading at or near record highs, indicating that bulls are in control and suggesting a potential for further upward movement [3][15] - The S&P 500 experienced a significant rally, increasing by 38% from its low in April 2025 to a record high in September 2025, driven primarily by technology and AI stocks [10] Economic Policies and Market Reactions - President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 initiated a series of bold economic policies, including the most comprehensive tariff package in modern American history, which initially caused a sharp decline in stock prices [5][6][7] - The market rebounded after the tariffs were lowered and extended, with April 2025 being marked as "Liberation Day," showcasing the market's resilience and forward-looking nature [9] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in years, which is seen as a bullish sign for both Main Street and Wall Street, with expectations of further rate cuts [11] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing negotiations with China and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, did not deter market growth, highlighting the American market's adaptability [12] IPO and Small/Mid Cap Stocks - The IPO market has shown signs of improvement in 2025, with increased venture capital flow and a rise in new stock offerings [13] - Small and mid-cap stocks began to rally in Q3 2025 after a period of dormancy, with the Russell 2000 index showing a 9% increase year-to-date, primarily driven by the Fed's rate cut announcement [14]

Recently, Black Rockck CEO Larry Frink published an article in the Financial Times titled, quote, "It's time for the second draft of globalization. It's safe to say that it took the world by storm." In that article, Larry acknowledged that globalization has created multiple problems such as growing wealth inequality. But it goes without saying that the solutions he has in mind could make things much worse. And that's why today we're going to take a look at what exactly Black Rockck is planning, how this cou ...