Core Argument - The article critiques the Trump administration's industrial and tariff policies, labeling them as "rule by deal" rather than effective economic nationalism or state capitalism [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Policy and Economic Nationalism - The Trump administration's approach involves making private deals with select companies, leading to a lack of transparency and accountability in the industrial landscape [5][4]. - There is a concern that this method of picking winners and losers could misallocate private capital and enrich certain market actors without a coherent strategy [13][12]. - The need for a comprehensive institutional approach to industrial policy is emphasized, particularly in critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [8][9]. Group 2: National Security and Critical Minerals - The dominance of China in critical minerals and semiconductors necessitates government intervention to ensure national security [7][6]. - A clear mission and institutional capacity are required to develop domestic production capabilities for critical minerals [9][10]. - The development finance corporation is suggested as a suitable entity to facilitate investments in critical industries [10]. Group 3: Tariffs and Trade Policy - The article discusses the implications of tariffs, suggesting that aggressive and sweeping tariffs could harm economic growth and consumer prices [20][22]. - Targeted tariffs may serve specific public policy goals, but broad tariffs across all imports could lead to higher costs for consumers [21][20]. - The potential for a domestic automobile market to emerge due to tariffs raises concerns about competitiveness and consumer choice [18][19].

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), marking the 30th anniversary of this flagship report, which provides a 10-15 year outlook on returns and risks across various asset classes [1][2][8] Market Outlook - The forecast annual return for a USD 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over the next 10-15 years is projected at 6.4%, with an increase to 6.9% for a 60/40+ portfolio that includes 30% in diversified alternatives [2][4] - Despite labor constraints impacting long-term growth, AI adoption is expected to enhance profits in the near term and productivity in the long term [2][4] Economic and Investment Trends - The report highlights the resilience of markets despite slower growth projections, with strong asset return forecasts [4][5] - Economic nationalism is identified as a challenge that may lead to increased domestic investment, presenting opportunities for investors [4] - The ongoing technology boom, particularly in AI, is seen as a critical driver of market momentum, necessitating active management to identify potential winners and losers [4][5] Asset Class Projections - U.S. large cap equities are expected to return 6.7%, while global equities are projected at 7% and emerging markets equities at 7.8% [13] - Private equity is forecasted to return 10.2%, and U.S. core real estate is expected to yield 8.2% [13] - Commodities are projected to return 4.6%, with gold expected to rise to 5.5% [13] Strategic Recommendations - Diversification is emphasized as essential for managing risk and achieving returns in a volatile inflation environment [5] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a goals-based investment strategy to maintain alignment and adaptability in uncertain conditions [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is assessing US government investments in its critical minerals companies on a case-by-case basis due to the rise of economic nationalism in the US, as highlighted by Industry Minister Melanie Joly [1][2]. Group 1: US Investments in Canadian Companies - The Trump administration has announced a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a $35.6 million investment to enhance critical minerals projects in Alaska [1]. - The US also agreed to acquire an interest in Lithium Americas Corp., which is developing the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada [1]. Group 2: Canadian Government's Position - The Canadian government will evaluate foreign investments under the Investment Canada Act, but it is unclear how much power it has to block these US deals [2]. - Canada has previously made it more difficult for foreign, state-owned firms to acquire its mining companies, particularly under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [4]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Challenges - There is concern that if Canada resists these investments, companies may relocate to access US government funds quickly [3]. - Joly emphasized the need for Canada to attract capital while maintaining sovereignty over its critical minerals [5].

Market Overview - The stock market is trading at or near record highs, indicating that bulls are in control and suggesting a potential for further upward movement [3][15] - The S&P 500 experienced a significant rally, increasing by 38% from its low in April 2025 to a record high in September 2025, driven primarily by technology and AI stocks [10] Economic Policies and Market Reactions - President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 initiated a series of bold economic policies, including the most comprehensive tariff package in modern American history, which initially caused a sharp decline in stock prices [5][6][7] - The market rebounded after the tariffs were lowered and extended, with April 2025 being marked as "Liberation Day," showcasing the market's resilience and forward-looking nature [9] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in years, which is seen as a bullish sign for both Main Street and Wall Street, with expectations of further rate cuts [11] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing negotiations with China and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, did not deter market growth, highlighting the American market's adaptability [12] IPO and Small/Mid Cap Stocks - The IPO market has shown signs of improvement in 2025, with increased venture capital flow and a rise in new stock offerings [13] - Small and mid-cap stocks began to rally in Q3 2025 after a period of dormancy, with the Russell 2000 index showing a 9% increase year-to-date, primarily driven by the Fed's rate cut announcement [14]

BlackRock's "Second Draft of Globalization" - BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink acknowledges globalization's problems like wealth inequality but proposes solutions that could worsen the situation [1] - BlackRock aims to blend open markets with national goals, concerned that economic nationalism hinders its global influence [8] - BlackRock plans to channel citizens' savings into local businesses and infrastructure, similar to the EU's approach [10] Investment and Financial Implications - BlackRock intends to help more people become investors, using retirement accounts as a vehicle to steer capital [14][16] - The EU's proposed savings and investment union, supported by BlackRock, may lead to auto-enrollment in pension funds, potentially allocating funds to infrastructure projects [20][21] - BlackRock estimates $68 trillion is needed for infrastructure development, seeking to tap into consumer savings to meet this need [25][26] - BlackRock acquired Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) to invest in infrastructure globally, focusing on decarbonization [27][28] Market and Economic Effects - Rising bond yields, due to decreased demand, could make bonds more attractive and suppress economic activity [35][37] - The illiquidity of infrastructure assets may hinder BlackRock's plans, as people prefer liquid savings in uncertain times [38][40] - Globalization 2.0 may suppress wages while increasing service-related inflation, benefiting corporations with close ties to institutions like BlackRock and the EU [43][44][45] - The current model is unsustainable, and corporations may eventually need to increase wages to domestic labor [47][48]