As economic activity increases, we see an expansion, the first phase of the short-term debt cycle, spending continues to increase and prices start to rise. This happens because the increase in spending is fueled by credit, which can be created instantly out of thin air. When the amount of spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, prices rise.When prices rise, we call this inflation. The central bank doesn't want too much inflation because it causes problems. Seeing prices rise, it raise ...

Welcome back. Economic activity seeing quote little to no growth in recent weeks. That according to the Fed's latest Facebook survey.Investors now looking ahead to this Friday's jobs report for more clarity on where this economy is going. Joining me now to Slack. He is Apollo partner and chief economist.And I mispronounced your last name and you I hope will accept my sincere apologies for that. >> Of course. All good.I've heard many variants of my name over the last many many years. So >> the the correct on ...

Changes to government policies continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be shortlived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level.But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent and that is a risk to be assessed and ma ...

Economic Activity & Outlook - Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July [1] - Five districts reported slight or modest gains, while two noted a modest decline [2] - Overall outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, with uncertainty remaining elevated [2] Labor Market - Employment increased very slightly overall, with cautious hiring attributed to economic and policy uncertainty [3] - Many expect to postpone major hiring and layoff decisions until uncertainty diminishes [3] - Layoffs were limited overall, but somewhat more common among manufacturers [4] Inflation & Costs - Prices increased across districts moderately or modestly, similar to the previous report [4] - Businesses reported modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs in all 12 districts [4] - Cost pressures are expected to remain elevated, increasing the likelihood of faster consumer price increases by year-end [6] - Many firms passed on cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges, while some held off due to price sensitivity [5] - Raw material costs, especially for manufacturing and construction, were impacted by tariffs [5]

Kelly, the Fed minutes from the meeting in June on June 17th show that all participants view the view it as appropriate to maintain the Fed funds rate at 4 and a quarter to 4.5%. Now, the committee said it was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Also, a couple of participants they say noted that they would be open to considering rate cuts as soon as the next meeting that is July, but obviously that's the minority position here.participants note uh dow ...