Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is impacting various sectors of the economy, including stocks, housing, and borrowing costs [1] - Lower interest rates are prompting U.S. banks to reduce their prime lending rates, making credit more accessible for businesses and consumers [1][4] Economic Impact - The rate cut signifies the end of a tightening cycle, but concerns regarding jobs, inflation, and national debt remain [2] - Lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers can lead to increased capital for growth, new projects, and hiring, potentially boosting stock prices [4] - Cheaper capital encourages reinvestment and spending, which can enhance economic activity and raise asset prices [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to position themselves ahead of increased economic activity, particularly in sectors like technology and real estate, which typically respond positively to declining borrowing costs [6] - The full economic impact of the rate cut is expected to unfold over months, emphasizing the importance of patience in investment strategies [6] Treasury Yield Influence - The 10-year Treasury yield plays a crucial role in determining long-term borrowing costs, such as mortgages and corporate loans, and is influenced by investor sentiment regarding inflation and national debt stability [7] - Mortgage rates may not decrease immediately following a Fed rate cut, as they depend on long-term Treasury yields rather than solely on Fed policy [5][7]

Alternative Data Analysis - The private data serves as a supplement to governmental data, which is considered the gold standard [1] - The private data is more effective as a supplement rather than a replacement for primary data sources [1] - The effectiveness of private data varies across sectors, with better substitutes in the employment space compared to inflation and economic activity [1] - Different private data providers employ varying universes and levels of rigor in their data analysis [1] Economic Outlook and Data Concerns - The September employment report is considered a very important report for decision-making [2] - The September CPI and PPI reports are expected to be available [2] - Potential data collection disruptions could pose challenges, particularly concerning October data [2]

🇺🇸 FED POWELL SPEECH SUMMARY 🇺🇸"Outlook hasn't changed much since September.""Current Fed policy toolkit is working well.""Economic activity has surprised to the upside.""Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the months ahead.”Sounds dovish, send it 🚀 ...

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you you mentioned earlier that job creation was running below your guess at its break even rate. I'd be curious to hear a bit more about that and where you think the break even rate is, >> you know, so there there many different ways to to calculate it and um none of them is perfect, but you know, it's it's clearly come way down there. There you you could you could say it's somewhere between zero and 50,000 and you'd be right or wrong.I mean, there just many way different ways to do it. Um so whatever where ...

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

Welcome back. Economic activity seeing quote little to no growth in recent weeks. That according to the Fed's latest Facebook survey.Investors now looking ahead to this Friday's jobs report for more clarity on where this economy is going. Joining me now to Slack. He is Apollo partner and chief economist.And I mispronounced your last name and you I hope will accept my sincere apologies for that. >> Of course. All good.I've heard many variants of my name over the last many many years. So >> the the correct on ...

Changes to government policies continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be shortlived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level.But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent and that is a risk to be assessed and ma ...

Economic Activity & Outlook - Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July [1] - Five districts reported slight or modest gains, while two noted a modest decline [2] - Overall outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, with uncertainty remaining elevated [2] Labor Market - Employment increased very slightly overall, with cautious hiring attributed to economic and policy uncertainty [3] - Many expect to postpone major hiring and layoff decisions until uncertainty diminishes [3] - Layoffs were limited overall, but somewhat more common among manufacturers [4] Inflation & Costs - Prices increased across districts moderately or modestly, similar to the previous report [4] - Businesses reported modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs in all 12 districts [4] - Cost pressures are expected to remain elevated, increasing the likelihood of faster consumer price increases by year-end [6] - Many firms passed on cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges, while some held off due to price sensitivity [5] - Raw material costs, especially for manufacturing and construction, were impacted by tariffs [5]

Kelly, the Fed minutes from the meeting in June on June 17th show that all participants view the view it as appropriate to maintain the Fed funds rate at 4 and a quarter to 4.5%. Now, the committee said it was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Also, a couple of participants they say noted that they would be open to considering rate cuts as soon as the next meeting that is July, but obviously that's the minority position here.participants note uh dow ...