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LPG早报-20250604
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 07:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG industry are still weak overall, with expected overall growth in supply, some support for Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - On June 3, 2025, compared with the previous day, in the civil gas sector, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4580, in East China increased by 3 to 4508, and in South China decreased by 30 to 4680; ether - post - carbon four increased by 70 to 4710; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4508. FEI import cost rose, CP import cost fell, PP rose slightly, FEI - made PP profit increased, and CP - made PP profit decreased. The PG futures price rose significantly, mainly driven by oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 77 to 436; the 07 - 09 spread increased by 14 to 164. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly View - Civil gas prices showed regional differentiation, with prices rising in Shandong, falling in South China, and remaining stable in East China. Ether - post - C4 prices fell, and the price of the cheapest deliverable (East China civil gas) was 4505 yuan/ton. The PG futures price fluctuated upward from Monday to Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday due to falling oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 spreads also strengthened. In the overseas market, FEI and MB prices fell slightly, while CP prices rose slightly; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) US dollars. Fundamentally, port arrivals increased slightly, chemical demand improved, but civil gas sales were sluggish, leading to overall port inventory reduction; refinery inventories increased. In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased by 2.46%, and further increases are expected; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11 pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP were similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week. The operating rate and commercial volume of alkylation increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise next week. MTBE prices first rose and then fell, and MTBE production remained basically flat. The profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some restocking demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand. In addition, as the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]