| AAA III Waxaa Maar Maar Waxaa limaa Alaamii waxaa lakii l | | --- | | | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/25 | | | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/08/1 8 | 4450 | 4410 | 4440 | 561 | 521 | 66 | 517 | 4890 | 7800 | -188 | 599 | | 2025/08/1 9 | 4490 | 4390 | 4480 | 563 | 521 | 67 | 515 | 4 ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期*ST海钦(600753)发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入 3.25亿元，同比上升50.38%，归母净利润746.87万元，同比上升120.41%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入2.42亿元，同比上升541.4%，第二季度归母净利润899.94万元，同比上升151.99%。本报告 期*ST海钦盈利能力上升，毛利率同比增幅730.99%，净利率同比增幅114.03%。 充电场站产生的资产处置收益。所得税费用变动幅度为3561.41%,原因:本期公司主营业务盈利较上年同 期大幅增加，计提当期企业所得税费用。 证券之星价投圈财报分析工具显示：业务评价：去年的净利率为-57.43%，算上全部成本后，公司产品 或服务的附加值不高。从历史年报数据统计来看，公司近10年来中位数ROIC为6.48%，中位投资回报较 弱，其中最惨年份2024年的ROIC为-139.5%，投资回报极差。公司历史上的财报非常一般，公司上市来 已有年报28份，亏损年份10次，如无借壳上市等因素，价投一般不看这类公司。 财报体检工具显示：建议关注公司现金流状况(货币资金/流动负债仅为29.97%、近 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

| | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 MB丙烷现 CP预测合 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 主力基差 | 华东液化 | | | | | | | | 纸面进口 | | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 4 | 4365 | 4401 | 4420 | 565 | 535 | 69 | 521 | 4920 | 7810 | -302 | 507 | | 2025/08/1 5 | 4400 | 4410 | 4420 | 563 | 527 | 66 | 519 | 4930 | 7830 | -253 | 539 | | 2025/08/1 8 | 4450 | 4410 | 4440 | 561 | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations, and currently, the marginal improvement of the fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate that this expectation has been well realized. The market is facing a high level of warehouse receipts and maintaining a high basis, with the downward driving force fading but limited rebound space. The follow - up should focus on the further repair process of the US cargo flow and the signal of freight rate decline to confirm the market bottoming. The market mainline this year still needs to pay attention to the continuous supply increase from North America and the Middle East. Currently, the negative factors are being released rapidly, and the market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Summary by Related Content China's LPG Import Structure Changes - In the previous trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market from 2018 - 2020 due to a 20% tariff. In 2019, non - US and non - Middle East sources grew the fastest, filling the nearly 20% share of US sources. After that, the share of US LPG in China's imports continued to rise, reaching 50.9% in 2024, the highest in history [1] - In 2025, due to trade conflicts, the share of US LPG in China's imports decreased. In March, it dropped from nearly 50% to 38.7%. After the full - scale counter - tariff on US goods in April, the US LPG may lose its cost advantage. In June, the share of US LPG dropped to 12%, the lowest in recent years. It is expected to rise to 35% - 40% in the short term, and the distortion of trade flow will start to ease in the third quarter [3][4] - The LPG import volume increased after March due to the "rush - to - import" behavior of importers. In June, the procurement volume and the US share dropped rapidly. In July, the total import volume is expected to rise again, and the US share is expected to further rise to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, the Northeast Asian market, centered on China, has become the main part of US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination, accounting for 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, the exports to Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, and the export share to South Asia and Southeast Asia is expected to increase from 9.4% in the first quarter to 20.4% in the second quarter [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The domestic chemical production progress has slowed down, while the US natural gas and OPEC have entered a strong production - increasing cycle this year. The buyer's bargaining power has increased, and the trade flow has been reshaped with the increase of trade on the North America - South Asia route [10] - The EIA slightly increased the forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the further production - increasing space this year is limited due to the weakening gas price. The oversupply pressure still exists, but the negative pressure may be marginally reduced [11] - In August, the Middle East CP dropped significantly for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East countries' attitude to seize the market under oversupply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been continuously repaired to a historical neutral position [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations. Currently, the marginal improvement of fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate good realization of this expectation. The downward driving force has faded, but the rebound space is limited. The market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents China's LPG Import Structure Changes - During the 2018 - 2020 trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market due to a 20% tariff. By 2024, the proportion of US LPG imports in China reached a record high of 50.9%, and subsequently, trade conflicts led to fluctuations in this proportion. In March 2025, it dropped to 38.7%, and in June, it fell to 12%. It is expected to remain in the range of 35% - 40% in the short term [1][3][4] - After the expectation of a 145% tariff on US LPG in May, there was a rush to import, causing the total LPG import volume to increase after March. In June, the procurement volume declined rapidly, and the proportion of US LPG also decreased significantly [4] - In July, the total domestic import volume is expected to rebound, with the year - on - year decline narrowing from - 21% in June to - 12% in July. The proportion of US LPG in the import volume is expected to further recover to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, Northeast Asia, centered on China, has become the main destination for US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination at 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, exports to other regions such as Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, with the export proportion to these two regions increasing from 9.4% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2 [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The EIA slightly increased its short - term forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the room for further production increase within the year is limited due to weak gas prices. The over - supply pressure remains, but the negative pressure may decline marginally [11] - In August, the Middle East CP was significantly lowered for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East's attitude to seize the market under over - supply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been restored to a historical neutral level [11] - The low - price PG has stimulated the recovery of terminal demand, and the distorted trade flow has begun to repair. After the recent rapid decline of crude oil, PG has remained relatively stable, with a firm ratio [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The basis is strong, the disk valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall situation is expected to be mainly volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The center of the spot price has moved down, and the cheapest deliverable is the South China civil gas at 4365 on Thursday. The PG disk strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -450 (+15). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1] - The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), the monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen, the 9 - 10 spread was -478 (-39), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 10179 lots (+420) [1] International Market - The international market fundamentals are loose. FEI and CP are oscillating, and MB is weakening. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East has decreased, while that in North America has slightly increased [1] - The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly. PG - CP is 9.3 (-21); PG - FEI is -2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open [1] - The freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East is 85 (+11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased, but it is expected to decline next [1] Industrial Profit - The FEI - MOPJ has significantly narrowed to -38 (+15), and the naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve [1] - The production gross profit of alkylated oil has decreased. The MTBE gas fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading port volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, the factory inventory has decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57% [1] - The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21 pct). Tianjin Bohua has resumed operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng has restarted, but Binhua has stopped due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]