| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 7680 | -179 | 220 | | 2025/09/2 6 | 4650 | 4393 | 4580 | 584 | 532 | 73 | 543 | 4620 | 76 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 76 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 2 | 4640 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 536 | 71 | 544 | 4680 | 7680 | -181 | 211 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 76 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply - demand and geopolitical issues, a strong outer - market propane with a large internal - external price difference, and a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. PG10/11 mostly follows outer - market propane and crude oil, and with the rebound of crude oil and improved domestic sentiment, the low - level valuation of the disk has been repaired [2]. - The near - end trading logic is that the domestic market remains loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, and the outer - market price is still relatively strong. With the rebound of crude oil, the domestic market has rebounded from the low level. The far - end is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. - The market is expected to be in a volatile state. The price range of PG11 is predicted to be between 4200 - 4600. Different trading strategies are proposed, including base - spread, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. Outer - market propane has been strong in the past month, with a converted RMB - inclusive price of 4700 - 4750 yuan/ton and a large internal - external price difference. The domestic fundamental situation is loose, with stable supply - demand, slightly improved chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - Near - end: The domestic market is loose, chemical demand has slightly improved, the outer - market price is still relatively strong, and the domestic market has rebounded from the low level due to crude oil rebound. Far - end: It is affected by macro factors, outer - market seasonal demand, and the possible weakening of chemical demand [4][7]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in a volatile state, and the price range of PG11 is 4200 - 4600 [11]. - **Base - Spread Strategy**: It is expected to shrink in a volatile manner. Chemical demand is expected to weaken, combustion demand is still weak, the spot side is under pressure, and the disk has room for valuation repair [11]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Sell high and conduct reverse arbitrage. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern. Recently, the disk has shown a positive arbitrage trend due to the rebound of the near - month contract [12]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Buy PP and sell PG at low prices. There are many maintenance plans for the PP end and PDH in October, and PDH profits have room to expand. Also, pay attention to the impact of US demand - inventory changes and Sino - US relations on the outer - market regional price difference after the National Day [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When inventory is high and worried about price drops, short - sell PG futures (PG2511) to lock in profits and sell call options (PG2511C4600) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. - **Procurement Management**: When procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures (PG2511) at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (PG2511P4200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Crude oil rebounded due to issues such as Russian sanctions conflicts. In the industrial sector, the arrival of goods decreased slightly due to typhoons, ports destocked, and chemical demand and production increased slightly [20]. - **Negative Information**: Spot prices dropped this week due to typhoons and refinery inventory reduction [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 30: China's official manufacturing PMI. October 1: US September ISM manufacturing data (expected 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7). October 3: US unemployment rate, non - farm employment and other economic data [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PG11 contract fluctuated and rose this week, mainly following the crude oil price for valuation repair. Major profitable seats reduced their net positions but increased their cumulative profits. The top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list did not change significantly. The net short positions of some seats decreased slightly, while foreign investors increased their net short positions slightly and retail investors increased their net long positions slightly. Technically, on the daily chart, PG11 entered the previously mentioned volatile range (4200 - 4450), and on the hourly chart, it was at the upper Bollinger Band at the Friday close [18]. - **Base - Spread and Month - Spread Structure**: The LPG month - to - month structure remained in a BACK structure, becoming steeper than last week. The 10 - 11 month spread was 148 yuan/ton, widening by 83 yuan/ton compared to last week, due to the concentrated reduction of short positions in the October contract [23]. 3.2 Outer - Market Situation - **Single - Side Trend**: FEI M1 closed at 545 dollars/ton (- 2), with the premium slightly widening to - 12.25 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 544 dollars/ton (+ 2), with the discount remaining at - 5 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 380 dollars/ton (+ 7) [25]. - **Month - Spread Structure**: FEI M1 - M2 was - 9.10 dollars/ton (- 3.10), CP M1 - M2 was - 14.94 dollars/ton (- 3.9), and MB M1 - M2 was - 3.69 dollars/ton (- 2.17) [31]. - **Regional Price - Difference Tracking**: The regional price difference was generally volatile this week, and the FEI - MOPJ price difference weakened again [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profits**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). With high refinery profits, the output of liquefied gas increased [37]. - **Downstream Profits**: The PDH - to - monomer profit calculated by FEI was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 170 yuan/ton (- 129), with greater losses in PP production. MTBE gas - separation profit was - 61 yuan/ton (- 6.75), isomerization profit was - 99 (+ 73), and alkylation oil profit was - 60.50 yuan/ton (+ 77) [39][40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The outer - market spot price weakened slightly this week, and the import profit increased slightly [42]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - **US Supply - Demand**: The US is still in a stock - building state this week. After the National Day, demand is expected to increase seasonally. From January to August, the US exported 45450 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.61%, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in exports to China. The export volume remained high in August and September, while the volume to China remained low [46][53]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to August, the Middle East exported 31745 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with a 0.88% year - on - year decrease in exports to India and a 22.41% year - on - year increase in exports to China. The overall shipment was neutral [57]. - **India Supply - Demand**: From January to August, India's LPG demand was 21487 kt, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and its LPG import was 13959 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.38%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and demand and imports are expected to remain high [61]. - **South Korea Supply**: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. From May to August, its LPG import remained high, with some re - export demand in May and June. The propane cracking profit is better than that of naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [65]. - **Japan Supply - Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. As the weather turns cold, imports are expected to increase, and they are still neutral in September and October [73]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply: Domestic LPG output is expected to remain high due to high refinery profits, and imports may decrease slightly in October due to possible weakening chemical demand. Demand: Chemical demand will decrease slightly, and combustion demand will increase slightly. Inventory: Overall, inventory will increase slightly [81]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.27% (- 1.25%), and that of independent refineries is 53.49% (+ 1.64%). The domestic LPG sales volume this week was 53.92 tons (+ 0.07), and the port arrival volume was 53 (- 19.55). Inventory continued to increase, with factory inventory at 18.81 tons (+ 0.78) and port inventory at 313.66 tons (- 9.74) [86]. - **Domestic Demand**: PDH demand: Wanhua Penglai has increased production, and Zhenhua has restarted. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in October. MTBE demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Dongming Qianhai, and exports still provide support. Alkylation oil demand: The operating rate has slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Ningxia Baichuan. Combustion demand: It is expected to increase slightly [93][95][100].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The decline in South China prices is mainly due to the impact of the typhoon, which led to the near - stagnation of exports and some refineries reducing prices to clear inventories. With an increase in port and factory inventories, a decline in chemical demand, and sufficient supply in Shandong, the market is under pressure [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Price Changes - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On Tuesday, the low - end price in East China was 4385 (+0), in Shandong it was 4550 (+0), and in South China it was 4600 (-40). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (-10). The South China price decrease was due to the typhoon impact [1]. - **International Prices**: FEI and CP changed little. As of 2:30 pm, FEI was 549 (+1) and CP was 543 (+0) dollars/ton. The FEI monthly spread remained at 5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread was - 11 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3) [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the lowest delivery area in East China was 60 (+19), and the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 70 (+0). The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. The PG - CP was 75 (-3), the PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3), and the FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 13002 warehouse receipts (-6), with Shanghai Yuchi decreasing by 1 and Donghua decreasing by 5 [1]. - **Freight**: Freight continued to rise. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Incoming shipments decreased, and external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE also decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to arriving resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data and Changes - From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends. South China increased from 4540 to 4650 (+100), East China decreased from 4504 to 4415 (-92), and Shandong remained at 4530 with a previous increase of 30. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased from 4790 to 4700 (-60). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - On a daily basis, the PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6) [1]. - Ex - market prices rose. The FEI spread increased by 1, the MB spread remained unchanged, and the CP spread was -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP dropped to 75 (-3); PG - FEI dropped to 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP increased to 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7). FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - PDH - to - PP profits continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. The inflow to ports decreased, the outflow increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfafa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall LPG market is expected to remain weak. The domestic market has declined significantly, with the basis weakening. The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The chemical demand has declined, and the supply is abundant in Shandong, the cheapest delivery location [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: The low - end price in East China is 4462 (-20), in Shandong is 4530 (-10), and in South China is 4610 (+25). The post - ether carbon four is 4700 (+0). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract has weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1]. External Market and Price Differences - **External Market Prices**: FEI and CP are 553.05 (-6) and 547.55 (-2.45) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread has decreased by 1 to - 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread is - 11 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: PG - CP is 75 (-3); PG - FEI is 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP is 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. Market Conditions and Demand - **Market Conditions**: The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The freight rates have continued to rise [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand has declined. The PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), and the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE have also decreased [1]. Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory have both increased. Incoming shipments have decreased, and external shipments have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Shandong, the cheapest delivery location, has abundant supply due to incoming resources [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex changes. The domestic market has seen significant price increases, with the basis weakening and monthly spreads changing. The external market prices have risen, and the profit of PDH - made PP has continued to weaken. The supply and demand situation is such that imports have decreased, external sales have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. The chemical demand has declined, and the overall market is expected to remain weak [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in different regions were as follows: the price in East China was 4482 (-17), in Shandong was 4540 (+0), and in South China was 4585 (+35). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Contract - related Data**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 hands (-6) [1]. - **External Market Prices**: FEI and CP were 559 (+2) and 550 (+0) US dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained at - 5, and the CP monthly spread remained at - 11. The external market prices rose, with the FEI - CP spread at 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Market Spread and Margin Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis weakened, and the monthly spreads showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 11 monthly spread changed by +14, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread changed by +3. The internal - external spread decreased slightly, with PG - CP at 75 (-3) and PG - FEI at 67.6 (-9.3) [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit of PDH - made PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Shipping and Inventory Data - **Shipping**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7) [1]. - **Inventory**: Imports decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, resulting in an increase in both port and factory inventories [1].