2025 年 9 月 29 日 LPG：短期支撑不弱，关注成本变化 丙烯：短期偏弱运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,290 | 0.54% | 4,317 | 0.63% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,211 | 0.21% | 4,235 | 0.57% | | | PL2601 | 6,365 | -0.11% | 6,396 | 0.49% | | | PL2602 | 6,399 | 0.00% | 6,412 | 0.20% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 65,891 | 4599 | 80,682 | -7631 | | | PG2512 | ...

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG industry are still weak overall, with expected overall growth in supply, some support for Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - On June 3, 2025, compared with the previous day, in the civil gas sector, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4580, in East China increased by 3 to 4508, and in South China decreased by 30 to 4680; ether - post - carbon four increased by 70 to 4710; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4508. FEI import cost rose, CP import cost fell, PP rose slightly, FEI - made PP profit increased, and CP - made PP profit decreased. The PG futures price rose significantly, mainly driven by oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 77 to 436; the 07 - 09 spread increased by 14 to 164. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly View - Civil gas prices showed regional differentiation, with prices rising in Shandong, falling in South China, and remaining stable in East China. Ether - post - C4 prices fell, and the price of the cheapest deliverable (East China civil gas) was 4505 yuan/ton. The PG futures price fluctuated upward from Monday to Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday due to falling oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 spreads also strengthened. In the overseas market, FEI and MB prices fell slightly, while CP prices rose slightly; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) US dollars. Fundamentally, port arrivals increased slightly, chemical demand improved, but civil gas sales were sluggish, leading to overall port inventory reduction; refinery inventories increased. In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased by 2.46%, and further increases are expected; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11 pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP were similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week. The operating rate and commercial volume of alkylation increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise next week. MTBE prices first rose and then fell, and MTBE production remained basically flat. The profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some restocking demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand. In addition, as the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]