| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/26 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷现 | CP预测合 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 | 主力基差 | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 9 | 4490 | 4390 | 4480 | 563 | 521 | 67 | 515 | 4890 | 7800 | -162 | 638 | | 2025/08/2 0 | 4520 | 4390 | 4480 | 565 | 536 | 69 | 519 | 4890 | 7780 | -144 | 136 | | 2025/08/2 1 | 4520 | 4398 | 4500 | 573 | 5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the chemical demand is expected to rise, which may boost the market in Shandong, while the markets in East and South China are more likely to fluctuate. The geopolitical situation has significantly escalated, and the US attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - From June 1 to June 24, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG increased from 4660 to 4695, with a daily change of 45 on June 24 [1]. - The prices of propane CFR South, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, and CP forecast prices also fluctuated, and there were daily changes such as - 25 for MB propane spot on June 24 [1]. - The paper import profit showed a change of 248 on June 24, and the主力基差 changed by 319 [1]. Market Analysis - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. The PP price dropped significantly, FEI and CP prices tumbled, PDH production profit improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures market declined significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread remained at 99 [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. Civil gas prices first rose and then fell due to continuous disturbances in international supply, but sufficient domestic supply and weak demand. The PG futures market strengthened unilaterally due to geopolitical impacts, the 07 contract basis weakened to 80 (- 141), and the spreads (07 - 08 and 07 - 09) weakened significantly [1]. - The outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened [1]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals were delayed, chemical demand increased slightly, port inventories and storage capacity ratios decreased, factory inventories were basically flat, and external sales were basically unchanged [1]. - Chemical demand was supported, PDH and MTBE operating rates increased, and the alkylation rate was basically flat. Many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future, which will drive up the PDH operating rate [1]. - The number of registered warrants decreased by 647 to 8358 hands, mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will be boosted, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical factors have significantly escalated, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis Information - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4630. The PG futures price has increased, with the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 6 to 97. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The PG futures price has strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks. The 07 contract basis has weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads have weakened significantly, with 07 - 08 at 10 and 07 - 09 at 195 [1] Price Changes - From June 1 to June 20, 2025, the daily changes in prices include: South China LPG -10, East China LPG 7, Shandong LPG 80, Shandong ether - post - carbon - four 1, Shandong alkylated oil -5, etc. [1] Market Conditions - The CFR prices of propane in South China and East China are basically flat. The outer - market prices have continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio has increased [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread has strengthened, FEI - MB has strengthened slightly, FEI - CP and MB - CP have weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount has weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount has dropped significantly to 12 US dollars. Freight has increased slightly [1] Downstream Profits - The PDH spot profit has improved due to the increase in drawing prices. The profit of producing PP with FEI has decreased, while the profit of producing with CP has increased. The profits of alkylation and MTBE have decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has shifted downward [1] Fundamental Information - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, while factory inventories have remained basically flat, and external sales have remained basically unchanged [1] - Chemical demand has support, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing, and the alkylation rate remaining basically flat. Subsequently, many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads, driving up the PDH operating rate [1] Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 at Jinneng Chemical and 377 at Shanghai Yuchi [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, and geopolitical risks are significant. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Price and Profit - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4570. PP prices rose, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. PG futures prices increased significantly, with the 07 - 09 spread changing from -46 to 114 [1] - Civil gas prices rose significantly, and the cheapest deliverable became East China civil gas at 4603. Shandong showed signs of stabilization; East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices rebounded due to typhoon - affected arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10) [1] - Outer - market prices strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The PG - CP spread reached 18 US dollars (+27), and the FEI - CP spread was -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] Production Profit and Spread - PDH production profit worsened, FEI production profit was lower than CP; alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads declined [1] Inventory and Supply - Demand - Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - Chemical demand improved overall, with the PDH operating rate rising to 64.3% and the alkylation operating rate rising to 48.18%. MTBE production also increased significantly, and a large number of MTBE export orders supported prices [1] - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (-335) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4610, increased by 61 to 4677 in East China, and decreased by 30 to 4690 in South China. The price of ether - post carbon four decreased by 20 to 4960. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4610. The PP price declined, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The PG futures price was revised downwards, the basis of the 07 contract increased by 16 to 228, and the 07 - 09 spread decreased by 18 to 160. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] - **Weekly Changes**: Civil gas prices rose significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4603. There were signs of stabilization in Shandong; the market in East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; the spot market in South China rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10). The external market price strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP reached -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] b) Production Profit and Market Conditions - PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The profitability of alkylated oil decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased, and the spreads of FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking decreased [1] c) Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Port inventories and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and external shipments declined, and it is expected that external shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand improved overall. The operating rate of PDH increased to 64.3%, the operating rate of alkylation increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] d) Futures Market - The PG futures price was adjusted. The basis of the 07 contract and the 07 - 09 spread changed. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9005 lots (-335) [1]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressures are high and demand remains sluggish in other regions [1]. - It is expected that the external supply will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline, while gasoline demand recovery is expected to drive up the demand for alkylated oil, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is also expected to increase [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On a daily basis, civil gas prices increased in Shandong (+20 to 4620), East China (+40 to 4491), and South China (+20 to 4590); ether - post carbon four increased by 130 to 4810. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4491 [1]. - FEI and CP import costs increased, PP prices rose slightly, and the profits from FEI and CP for PP production increased. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 07 contract increasing by 37 to 372 and the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 5 to 203 [1]. Weekly Situation - Last week, civil gas was generally weak, but Shandong rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - post carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures fluctuated strongly, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread strengthened significantly [1]. - Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external spread strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly [1]. Variety Spreads - The production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. Fundamental Situation - Port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external supply increased significantly [1]. - Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate basically flat and expected to increase next week. The demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants is 9304 lots (-565) [1].

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/04 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷 现货 | CP预测合 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/05/2 7 | 4820 | 4526 | 4490 | 607 | 552 | 76 | 594 | 4740 | 7750 | -188 | 536 | | 2025/05/2 8 | 4800 | 4517 | 4510 | 607 | 557 | 76 | 595 | 4740 | 7750 | -209 | 520 | | 2025/05/2 9 | 4750 | 4505 | 4530 | 605 | 557 | 75 | 574 | 4680 | 777 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong dropped by 20 to 4700, in East China by 2 to 4931, and remained stable in South China at 5020; for imported gas, prices in East China dropped by 15 to 5090, and in South China by 10 to 5080; ether - post carbon four dropped by 20 to 4690, with the lowest price being Shandong civil gas at 4700. Under the weak fundamental situation, the PG futures market fluctuated downward, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 405, and the 06 - 07 spread remained basically flat at 98. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Situation - Last week, the domestic civil gas market was weak. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four shifted down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to obvious port inventory accumulation; post - holiday downstream restocking was average, and factory inventories increased slightly. The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the outward supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - separation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventory was basically flat, exports increased, and the arbitrage window to the Far East closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]