2025 年 9 月 29 日 LPG：短期支撑不弱，关注成本变化 丙烯：短期偏弱运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,290 | 0.54% | 4,317 | 0.63% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,211 | 0.21% | 4,235 | 0.57% | | | PL2601 | 6,365 | -0.11% | 6,396 | 0.49% | | | PL2602 | 6,399 | 0.00% | 6,412 | 0.20% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 65,891 | 4599 | 80,682 | -7631 | | | PG2512 | ...

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG industry are still weak overall, with expected overall growth in supply, some support for Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - On June 3, 2025, compared with the previous day, in the civil gas sector, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4580, in East China increased by 3 to 4508, and in South China decreased by 30 to 4680; ether - post - carbon four increased by 70 to 4710; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4508. FEI import cost rose, CP import cost fell, PP rose slightly, FEI - made PP profit increased, and CP - made PP profit decreased. The PG futures price rose significantly, mainly driven by oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 77 to 436; the 07 - 09 spread increased by 14 to 164. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly View - Civil gas prices showed regional differentiation, with prices rising in Shandong, falling in South China, and remaining stable in East China. Ether - post - C4 prices fell, and the price of the cheapest deliverable (East China civil gas) was 4505 yuan/ton. The PG futures price fluctuated upward from Monday to Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday due to falling oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 spreads also strengthened. In the overseas market, FEI and MB prices fell slightly, while CP prices rose slightly; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) US dollars. Fundamentally, port arrivals increased slightly, chemical demand improved, but civil gas sales were sluggish, leading to overall port inventory reduction; refinery inventories increased. In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased by 2.46%, and further increases are expected; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11 pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP were similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week. The operating rate and commercial volume of alkylation increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise next week. MTBE prices first rose and then fell, and MTBE production remained basically flat. The profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some restocking demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand. In addition, as the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]