Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. Currently, the basis is weak (-1000), domestic refinery gas is sufficient in the short term, and there are intentions to deliver warehouse receipts from some warehouses. The 4 - 5 month spread on the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. Looking ahead, a shortage of LPG in China in the second half of April is inevitable. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the civil LPG demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - From March 19 - 25, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an upward trend. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 on March 19 to 7210 on March 25. Paper import profit increased from -3111 on March 19 to 1 on March 25, and the main basis changed from -392 to 120 [1]. - On March 25, the PG2605 contract closed at 6550 (-286) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 242 (+47), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0). The night - session closed at 6565 (-29), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 225 (-17) [1]. - Shandong civil LPG price was 6470 (-80), Shandong ether - post carbon four was 6470 (+0), Shandong propane was 6870 (-80), and Longkou Port propane was 7500 (+0) [1]. 3.2 Weekly Data Changes - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures price rose significantly. The basis was -1057 (-736), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 64 (-68) [1]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - post at 5950 (+520) [1]. - The FEI month spread was 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the domestic and international PG - FEI c1 dropped to 35 (-15.5) [1]. - The on - shore discount of South China CP propane was 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -76 (+52) [1]. - The spot profit of domestic PDH - made propylene weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH - made PP in East and South China decreased. The port inventory ratio was 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization was 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate was 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly [1] - The domestic PG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly [1] - In the future, it is highly likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will still be strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On March 24, 2026, the closing price of the PG2605 contract at 3 pm was 6836 (-162), the 5 - 6 month spread was 195 (+0), the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0), the night - session closing price was 6668 (-543), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 256 (+61) [1] - On Tuesday, the price of civil LPG in Shandong was 6550 (+0), the price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong was 6470 (-70), the price of propane in Shandong was 6950 (+27), and the price of propane at Longkou Port was 7500 (+0) [1] Weekly Data - The latest basis is -1057 (-736), the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (-68), and the number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520), Shandong civil LPG at 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG at 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG at 6300 (+150) [1] - The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio has declined, the domestic PG - FEI c1 is 35 (-15.5) [1] - The CIF discount of South China CP propane is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread is -76 (+52) [1] - The spot profit of propylene production from domestic PDH has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PP production from PDH in East and South China has declined [1] - The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization rate is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak, the PG futures price has risen significantly. The domestic PG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will still be strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Data - On March 23, 2026, the PG2605 contract closed at 7244 (+717) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 195 (+3) and 3100 (+0) warehouse receipts. The night - session closed at 6986 (-258), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 246 (+51). On Monday, the civil LPG price in Shandong was 6550 (+20), the post - ether price in Shandong was 6540 (+50), the propane price in Shandong was 6923 (+625), and the propane price at Longkou Port was 7500 (+300) [1] 2. Weekly Data - The latest basis is - 1057 (-736), the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (-68), and there are 3100 (+8) warehouse receipts. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong post - ether at 5950 (+520). The civil LPG price in Shandong is 5990 (+440), in East China is 6189 (+30), and in South China is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (-15.5). The CIF propane premium in South China is 501 (+108), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52). The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly. The current situation of domestic PG is a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is blocked for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From March 16 to March 20, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed different degrees of change. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 to 6300, East China LPG from 6122 to 6189, and Shandong LPG from 5530 to 5990. The propane CFR South China price first rose and then fell, from 980 to 1093. The CP forecast contract price increased from 582 to 600. The price of Shandong alkylated oil remained at 9200, while the paper import profit changed from - 1420 to - 2207, and the main basis changed from - 154 to - 545 [1]. Market Indicators - The basis is - 1057 (- 736), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (- 68). The number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520). Shandong civil LPG is 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG is 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (- 15.5). The South China CP propane landing discount is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (- 54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52) [1]. Profit and Inventory - The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].

Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 19, 2026, providing daily and weekly market data and analysis of LPG [4] Daily Market Data - **Price Data**: On March 18, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 6220, 6049, and 5630 respectively; the CFR South China price of propane was 1023; the CP forecast contract price was 589; the price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 5510; the price of Shandong alkylated oil was 8700; the paper import profit was -1737; the main basis was 64. The daily changes were 20, 5, 100, 45, 2, 90, 200, -324, 183 respectively [4] - **Contract Data**: On March 18, the PG2604 contract closed at 5766 (-61) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 96 (-27) and 1800 (+0) warrants. The night - session closed at 6268 (+509), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 73 (-23). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5600 (+80) [4] Weekly Viewpoint - **Market Trends**: Last week, the futures market fluctuated greatly with the center moving up, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest was -321 (+346), the 4 - 5 month spread was 132 (+5). The number of warrants was 3108 lots (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post carbon four at 5430 (+280). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and that of East China civil LPG was 6159 (+1178) [4] - **Related Spreads and Ratios**: The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), the oil - gas price ratio oscillated and declined. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -126 (-59) [4] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5 pct), the external release of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 tons (-1.8), and the PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7 pct) [4] - **Future Outlook**: The key lies in when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic. Short - term spot quotes mainly depend on the international oil price. There will probably be a shortage of goods in China in April, which is expected to be more serious in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures market may still follow the oil price, and the month spread will run strongly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market has shown significant fluctuations. The LPG futures price has increased, while the spot price has largely given back the gains of the previous two days. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, the import profit has dropped to a deep negative value, and the 4 - 5 month spread may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - **Prices**: From March 5 - 11, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, showed various changes. For example, on March 5, South China LPG was 5160, and on March 11, it was 6120. Propane CIF daily prices also fluctuated. The paper - import profit and the main basis also changed daily [1] - **Futures**: On March 11, the PG2604 contract closed at 5447 (+175) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 159 (+7). The number of warehouse receipts was 3108 (-2268). At night, it closed at 5624 (+290), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 174 (+15) [1] - **Spot**: The spot price significantly gave back the gains of the previous two days. Shandong's civil LPG mainstream price was 5005 - 7000, down 500 - 1400, and the transaction was active after the price drop. The propane DES price at Longkou Port was 923 (-5). The East China market maintained stable prices, with the mainstream transaction price at 6100 - 6700 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data - **Market Trends**: The futures price rose significantly last week, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then increased, with the latest at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4652 (-2027) [1] - **Related Indicators**: The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH spot profit increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then increased. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5pct). The production and sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3pct), the external supply was 56.2 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7pct) [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week after the holiday, downstream demand recovered slowly, and supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental pattern was weak. The impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The operating rate of PDH has marginally increased due to the restart of some devices, but there is still a gap compared to the previous level. The overseas supply has tightened marginally, and the external market has phased support, but there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost suppresses the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk. During the Spring Festival, the main uncertainty in the market comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the United States escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 12, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3740 - 4200 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 638 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4878 yuan/ton for propane and 4802 yuan/ton for butane, both down 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 628 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4802 yuan/ton for propane and 4726 yuan/ton for butane, down 37 yuan/ton and 36 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The CP propane - butane swap in the external market had a correction yesterday, while the domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall with partial increases. The East China spot market was mainly stable, with sellers having a low willingness to adjust prices before the festival, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures. Recently, the overseas supply has tightened marginally, especially in the United States where production and inventory have significantly declined due to the cold wave, providing phased support to the external market. However, there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost has suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. This week, the restart of some devices has driven the operating rate up to 65%, but it is still far from the previous level of 75%. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk, especially for the main PG2603 contract, where the pressure of concentrated warrant cancellation will be more obvious [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran and maintain a light position before the festival. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic market rose significantly affected by geopolitical and external market factors. Although the PDH operation rate decreased, the fundamentals remained tight in the short - term due to the US cold wave and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply returns, the negative feedback under poor PDH profits and the March maintenance season will weaken the driving force. The domestic market month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support positive spreads, but attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Daily Quotes - 03 - 04 month - spread was - 288 (- 13), 04 - 05 month - spread was 110 (+5). As of 9 p.m., FEI and CP paper prices reached $572 and $545 respectively. The 03 basis was 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (- 16), 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (- 32). Civil gas prices were differentiated, with Shandong at 4460 (+20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots (- 79). FEI month - spread rose, MB and CP month - spreads fell slightly, the oil - gas ratio declined slightly, FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP strengthened. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (- 18.7). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8). The FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 36 (- 1.75), 20 (- 9), and $62.52 (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was - 18 (weekly YoY: +9) [4] 3.2 Weekly Views - Spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. Port inventories decreased by 1.53%, ship arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand narrowed. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21%, and external releases increased by 2.11%. The PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82%), with the second - phase of Juzhengyuan under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market rose significantly due to geopolitical and external market factors. Although the PDH operating rate decreased, the fundamentals remained tight in the short - term due to the US cold wave and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and with the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the March maintenance season, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's monthly spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support positive spreads, but attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - 03 - 04 monthly spread is - 275 (- 1), 04 - 05 monthly spread is 105 (+ 17). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper cargo prices reached 550.57 and 538.57 US dollars respectively. The 03 basis is 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 monthly spread is 64 (- 16), 03 - 04 monthly spread is - 261 (- 32). Civil gas prices are differentiated: Shandong is 4460 (+ 20), East China is 4372 (- 151), South China is 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts are 5898 lots (- 79). FEI monthly spreads rose, MB and CP monthly spreads fell slightly, the oil - gas ratio declined slightly, FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP strengthened. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI c1 is 55.1 (- 18.7). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China is 85 (+ 8); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane are 36 (- 1.75), 20 (- 9), and 62.52 US dollars (+ 11.72) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread is - 18 (week - on - week; + 9) [4] 3.2 Weekly Outlook - Spot profits fluctuated, and paper cargo profits declined significantly. Port inventories decreased by 1.53%, ship arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand narrowed. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21%, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate is 62.25% (- 10.82%), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The overseas market remains tight with an expected increase in the official price of January CP. Domestically, the domestic - foreign price difference is relatively high, and the basis is relatively low, and the driving force needs further waiting. The profit of PDH is deteriorating, and the maintenance situation in January needs to be observed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Information Price Data - **Domestic Civil Gas**: On 2025/12/29, the price in East China was 4380 (-4), in Shandong was 4320 (+50), and in South China was 4510 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4430 (-70). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with the latest basis at 244 (-30) [1] - **Futures Spreads**: The 02 - 03 month spread was 113 (+1), another 02 - 03 month spread was 126 (+13), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -190 (+10). For the inner - plate, the 02 basis was 186 (-95), the 01 - 02 month spread was 117 (-2), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -203 (-3) [1] - **Paper Goods Prices**: As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper goods prices were 523 and 510 respectively, up 2 and 6 US dollars [1] - **1 - Month CP First - Round Recommended Values**: Propane and butane were 505/495 (+10/+10) respectively [1] - **Price Ratios**: PG - CP reached 100 (+1.86), PG - FEI reached 89 (+4.86), FEI - MB reached 185.6 (+10.6), and FEI - CP reached 11 (+3) [1] - **Propane Premiums**: The premium of propane arriving at East China was 4 (+1), and the premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane OB were 18.75 (+5.75), 50 (-1), and 43 (+0) respectively [1] - **FEL - MORI Price Difference**: -14 (up 4 month - on - month) [1] Inventory and Production Data - **Port Inventory**: The arrival rate of ships was 54.83%, and port inventory decreased by 14.3% [1] - **Refinery Data**: The refinery's commercial volume increased by 1.18%, and refinery inventory increased by 0.41% [1] - **PDH Data**: The operating rate of PDH was 76.36% (+1.36 pct) [1]