Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with overall peak - season expectations. PDH profit contraction may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4368 (-10), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4490 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 6, and the daily change was (+74). The 12 - 01 monthly spread was 98 (-3). FEI was 501 (+2) and CP was 480 (+6) dollars/ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the internal - external spread strengthened. PG - CP reached 137 (+4), PG - FEI reached 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene declined significantly (some plants shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The MTBE production gross profit changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply, Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season [1]. - The contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall [1]. - The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Day - to - Day Changes - In the civil gas market on Wednesday, prices in East China were 4378 (-9), in Shandong 4440 (+40), and in South China 4490 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 85 (+68), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 96 (+11). FEI was 498.71 (+3.71) and CP was 473.71 (+5.71) dollars/ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 month spread was 72 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; prices in Shandong were 4380 (+80), in East China 4374 (+95), and in South China 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4500 (+80) [1]. - The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6), and FEI - MB reaching 153 (-1.8). The CIF discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight rate was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest value at - 73 (-6) [1]. Weekly Viewpoints - The cracking spread of naphtha changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of PDH production of propylene in Shandong decreased significantly (some plants were shut down), the profit of alkylation plants rebounded, the production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1]. - Domestic production decreased, factory inventories were basically flat, the arrival potential was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6) due to Li Huayi Weiyuan operating at full capacity, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil gas may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season. The profit contraction of PDH may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high with a possible decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4387 (+10), in Shandong was 4400 (+20), and in South China was 4490 (+35). The price of etherified C4 was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis changing by 17 (-37) daily, and the December - January spread was 85 (-5). FEI was 493 (-1.75) and CP was 468 (+0) US dollars per ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 lots (+250). The cheapest deliverable was the civil gas in East China at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80). The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH dropped significantly (some plants were shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated. Domestic production decreased, the factory inventory was basically flat; the arrival was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.45% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern where the south is stronger than the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season; the contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall. The international propane market has a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4374 (+33), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4440 (+50). The price of etherified C4 was 4520 (-90). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with the basis changing by 26 (+63) daily, and the December - January spread at 72 (-16). FEI was 490 (-14) and CP was 463 (-7) dollars per ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; Shandong was 4380 (+80), East China 4374 (+95), and South China 4450 (+50). Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI to 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB to 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of PDH to propylene in Shandong declined significantly (some plants stopped production). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Liuhua Yiyuan operated at full capacity, while Binhuahua, Xintai, and Haiwei successively stopped production [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Although the spot supply pressure is high and the PG basis has dropped sharply and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term [4]. - There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up. The PDH operating rate is 68.76% (-2.12pct), and enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the prices of civil LPG showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. The price in East China was 4259 (-5), in Shandong 4250 (+50), and in South China 4400 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4390 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -76 (-39), and the November - December spread was 145 (-1). FEI increased significantly, and CP increased slightly, at 478 (+21) and 447 (+5) US dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts [4]. - The external market prices dropped significantly. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, at 78 (+26) in South China. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5) [4]. - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4].

Report Title - LPG: Short-term support is not weak, pay attention to cost changes [2] - Propylene: Weak operation in the short term [3] Core Viewpoints - LPG has short-term support but investors should focus on cost changes; propylene is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2][3] Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,290 yesterday with a 0.54% increase, and 4,317 at night with a 0.63% increase - PG2512 closed at 4,211 yesterday with a 0.21% increase, and 4,235 at night with a 0.57% increase - PL2601 closed at 6,365 yesterday with a -0.11% decrease, and 6,396 at night with a 0.49% increase - PL2602 closed at 6,399 yesterday with no change, and 6,412 at night with a 0.20% increase [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had a trading volume of 65,891 yesterday, an increase of 4,599 from the previous day, and a position of 80,682, a decrease of 7,631 - PG2512 had a trading volume of 12,891 yesterday, an increase of 1,852 from the previous day, and a position of 43,849, an increase of 1,244 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,531 yesterday, an increase of 1,093 from the previous day, and a position of 12,193, a decrease of 94 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 44 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day, and a position of 622, a decrease of 2 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 290 yesterday, compared to 283 the day before - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 370 yesterday, compared to 393 the day before - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 110 yesterday, compared to 113 the day before - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -15 yesterday, compared to -42 the day before - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -90 yesterday, compared to -97 the day before [3] Industrial Chain Data - PDH operating rate was 69.5% this week, compared to 64.6% last week - MTBE operating rate was 64.2% this week, compared to 63.6% last week - Alkylation operating rate was 47.4% this week, compared to 44.9% last week [3] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Market News CP Paper Goods - On September 26, 2025, the October CP paper goods, propane was at $542/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; butane was at $520/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper goods, propane was at $557/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, with some starting from 2023 and the end times of many still to be determined [8] Liquefied Gas Plant Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas plants have maintenance plans, with varying durations and some end times still to be determined [8]

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]