FVOCI(以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益)

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中国人寿(601628):NBV超预期,利率下行阶段性影响保险服务业绩
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-27 14:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance [2][7] Core Views - The insurance service performance is under pressure, leading to a temporary decline in profit growth. In 1H25, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, but the growth rate decreased by 32.6 percentage points compared to 1Q25. The net profit for 2Q25 was 12.129 billion yuan, down 31.2% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from bond investments and losses from long-term interest rate declines [5] - New business value (NBV) has returned to positive growth, with NBV growth exceeding expectations. In 1H25, NBV increased by 20.3% year-on-year to 28.546 billion yuan, surpassing the expected growth of 10.9%. The new single premium also saw a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year to 161.255 billion yuan [6] - The company's total investment assets have surpassed 7 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in the proportion of FVOCI stocks. As of June 30, the total investment assets reached 7.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have operating revenue of 486.723 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 114.290 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.88% [8][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 10.30, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is projected to be 0.77 [8][10]