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东吴证券:险企负债端持续改善 利差损风险逐步缓解
智通财经网· 2025-05-06 04:00
智通财经APP获悉,东吴证券发布研报称,负债端持续改善,看好保险行业利差损风险逐步缓解。1)该 行认为市场储蓄需求依然旺盛,同时在监管持续引导和险企主动性转型下,负债成本有望逐步下降,利 差损压力将有所缓解。2)近期十年期国债收益率回落至1.63%左右,该行预计,未来伴随国内经济复 苏,长端利率若企稳或修复上行,则保险公司新增固收类投资收益率压力将有所缓解。3)当前公募基金 对保险股持仓仍处于低位,估值对负面因素反应较为充分。2025年4月30日保险板块估值2025E 0.49- 0.79倍PEV、0.88-1.95倍PB,处于历史低位,行业维持"增持"评级。 东吴证券主要观点如下: 2025Q1经营回顾:寿险NBV延续较快增长,产险COR同比显著改善 产品变革进行时,未来将多元化发展 1)历史演变:从单一保障到多元保障+长期储蓄。自1980s国内保险行业复业以来,人身险产品经历了简 单人身险时期、新型人身险时期、健康险与万能险更迭时期以及后疫情时代多元化产品时期。当前重疾 险面临转型挑战,但大健康+大养老空间广阔。储蓄险方面以增额终身寿为主要产品,设计类型正由传 统险向分红险转型。 2)海外经验:以本土国情 ...
行业点评:NBV高增、投资分化,新华25Q1利润稳增
Ping An Securities· 2025-04-30 11:36
非银行金融 2025 年 04 月 30 日 行业点评 NBV 高增、投资分化,新华 25Q1 利润稳增 强于大市(维持) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业深度报告-非银行金融-险资举牌 研究暨 2024 年报分析:风起资产端-强于大市 20250403 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-优化险资权益 资产监管比例,发挥"耐心资本"优势-强于大市 20250409 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-深化个险营销 体制改革,头部险企具备高质量发展优势-强于大市 20250420 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-规范万能险经 营,推动行业健康发展、回归保障本源-强于大市 20250427 证券分析师 事项: 新华保险发 布 2025 年一季报 , 一季度实现归母净利润 58.82 亿 元 (YoY+19.0%),归母净资产 798.49 亿元(较上年末-17.0%)。 平安观点: 行 业 报 告 股票投资评级: 强烈推荐 (预计 6 个月内,股价表现强于市场表现 20%以上) 推 荐 (预计 6 个月内,股价表现强于市场表现 10%至 20%之间) 中 性 (预计 6 个月内,股价表现相对市场表现在± ...
中国太保(601601):银保高增NBV表现向好,市场波动利润承压
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-30 07:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 37.65 yuan over the next six months [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in insurance service revenue for Q1 2025, totaling 69.6 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.6 billion yuan, primarily due to rising short-term interest rates and fluctuations in the equity market affecting fair value [1][2]. - The company's new business value (NBV) grew by 39% year-on-year on a comparable basis, driven by the growth in the bancassurance channel, with life insurance premiums increasing by 11.8% to 118.4 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company aims to enhance its fundamental performance through ongoing reforms and the implementation of the "North Star Plan" in 2025, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 5.65 yuan, 6.34 yuan, and 7.19 yuan for 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the life insurance segment generated 21 billion yuan in service revenue (YoY +0.6%), while the property insurance segment achieved 47.7 billion yuan (YoY +4.8%) [1]. - The overall premium income for property insurance reached 63.1 billion yuan (YoY +1.0%), with a combined cost ratio of 97.4%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point improvement year-on-year [2]. Investment Returns - The company's total investment assets amounted to 2,810.2 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025, with a total investment return rate of 1.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, largely due to the impact of rising short-term interest rates and equity market volatility [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's operating revenue to reach 449.75 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 54.39 billion yuan [4][12].