公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 阳光保险（06963.HK）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） NBV 高增，分红险转型成效初显 事项： 2025H1，公司实现归母净利润 33.89 亿元，同比+7.8%；阳光人寿实现 NBV 同 比+47.3%至 40.08 亿元；阳光财险 COR 同比-0.3pct 至 98.8%。截至 2025H1， 集团内含价值较上年末+11%至 1284.86 亿元。2025H1，集团实现净/总/综合投 资收益率 3.8%/4%/5.1%，同比分别-0.2pct/+0.2pct/-0.2pct。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 90,270 | 93,875 | 97,176 | 102,169 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.40 | 3.99 | 3.52 | 5.14 | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,449 | 5,908 | 6,322 | 6,726 | | 同比增速(% ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to see a gradual alleviation of interest spread loss risks due to continuous improvement in the liability side and strong market savings demand [1] - The ten-year government bond yield has recently dropped to approximately 1.63%, and with the anticipated domestic economic recovery, the pressure on new fixed-income investment returns for insurance companies is expected to ease [1] - The valuation of the insurance sector remains low, with projected 2025E PEV of 0.49-0.79 times and PB of 0.88-1.95 times, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1] Group 2: Q1 2025 Operational Review - Net profit and net asset growth for listed insurance companies experienced short-term fluctuations due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, with significant differentiation among companies based on their reserve discount rates and VFA model measurement bases [2] - New business structure has improved significantly, with a rapid growth in NBV driven by factors such as reduced preset interest rates and optimized business structures, despite a slight short-term pressure on new single premiums [2] - The agent workforce remains stable, and the contribution of bank insurance channels to NBV is expected to continue increasing as companies' reform efforts yield results [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Insights - The combined ratio for property insurance has significantly improved year-on-year, primarily due to reduced disaster claims, cost-cutting measures, and the clearing of high-risk businesses [3] - Investment returns have faced slight pressure due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, but improvements in bond-related investment losses are expected from Q2 onwards [3] Group 4: Product Evolution and Future Outlook - The insurance industry has evolved from single protection products to diversified offerings, with significant opportunities in health and long-term care insurance [4] - Learning from overseas markets, there are opportunities for both savings and protection products tailored to local conditions, with a focus on long-term value and investment [4] - The industry is optimistic about the innovative development of health insurance, with dividend insurance being a preferred choice for balancing premium growth and alleviating interest spread loss pressures [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xinhua Insurance achieved a net profit of 5.882 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.0%. However, the net assets decreased by 17.0% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - The first-year premium for long-term insurance saw significant growth, reaching 27.236 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 149.6%. The first-year regular premium was 19.471 billion yuan, up 117.3% year-on-year, while the first-year lump-sum premium surged by 298.4% [5]. - The annualized total investment return for the company in Q1 2025 was 5.7%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the annualized comprehensive investment return dropped to 2.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Xinhua Insurance reported a net profit of 5.882 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 19.0% increase year-on-year. The net assets stood at 79.849 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.0% decline from the previous year [2]. Insurance Business - The long-term insurance first-year premium reached 27.236 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 149.6% year-on-year. The first-year regular premium was 19.471 billion yuan, up 117.3%, and the first-year lump-sum premium increased by 298.4% [5]. Investment Performance - The company experienced a mixed investment environment, with a total annualized investment return of 5.7%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. However, the comprehensive investment return fell to 2.8%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year due to significant losses in bond investments [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 37.65 yuan over the next six months [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in insurance service revenue for Q1 2025, totaling 69.6 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.6 billion yuan, primarily due to rising short-term interest rates and fluctuations in the equity market affecting fair value [1][2]. - The company's new business value (NBV) grew by 39% year-on-year on a comparable basis, driven by the growth in the bancassurance channel, with life insurance premiums increasing by 11.8% to 118.4 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company aims to enhance its fundamental performance through ongoing reforms and the implementation of the "North Star Plan" in 2025, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 5.65 yuan, 6.34 yuan, and 7.19 yuan for 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the life insurance segment generated 21 billion yuan in service revenue (YoY +0.6%), while the property insurance segment achieved 47.7 billion yuan (YoY +4.8%) [1]. - The overall premium income for property insurance reached 63.1 billion yuan (YoY +1.0%), with a combined cost ratio of 97.4%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point improvement year-on-year [2]. Investment Returns - The company's total investment assets amounted to 2,810.2 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025, with a total investment return rate of 1.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, largely due to the impact of rising short-term interest rates and equity market volatility [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's operating revenue to reach 449.75 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 54.39 billion yuan [4][12].