"不言顶，不测底"。无数次的教训告诉自己，不要去肆意猜测点位，更不是去猜测顶部或底部，因为一旦这么做了，那就在自己的心中设了一篱笆，到不 了那个位置就总觉得不可能，这样会很危险。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20251121— "呼吸不到4000点以下空气"的那位首席出来走两步（-美联储降息预期降温+股市单边下跌+资金面均衡偏松=微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3750亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2128亿元逆回购到期，净投放1622元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 21) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率支努 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | ( 42 | 成义文艺占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (% ...

Core Insights - The dollar index rose by +0.65%, reaching a 2-week high, driven by the cancellation of the October employment report and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes [1][4] - The yen weakened significantly, hitting a 9.75-month low, due to concerns over increased Japanese government debt from a proposed stimulus package [2][7] - The US trade deficit narrowed more than expected, further supporting the dollar [2][3] Dollar Performance - The dollar's strength was bolstered by the cancellation of key employment data, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut [1] - The hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes indicated that many officials prefer to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of the year [4] Yen and Japanese Economic Concerns - The yen's decline was exacerbated by dovish comments from a BOJ advisor, suggesting no interest rate hikes before March [7] - A supplementary budget of approximately 20 trillion yen ($129 billion) is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand, raising concerns about Japan's debt burden [7] Trade Deficit Impact - The US trade deficit shrank to -$59.6 billion in August from -$78.2 billion in July, which was narrower than the expected -$60.4 billion [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 220 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - The gaming sector experienced a downturn, with Jibite hitting the daily limit down [2] - The Nvidia concept stocks fell, with Magmi Tech down nearly 8% [2] - Other sectors such as CPO, optical communication modules, and laser radar also saw significant declines, with Hangzhou Electric hitting the daily limit down [2] - Conversely, sectors such as wind power equipment, chemical fibers, agricultural chemicals, soybeans, textile manufacturing, and military equipment showed gains, with several stocks in these sectors hitting the daily limit up [2] Stock Movement - In total, 1,805 stocks rose while 3,414 stocks fell, with 58 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 24 stocks hitting the daily limit down [3] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Recent market fluctuations indicate a consolidation phase, with the A50 index's sudden drop impacting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - Analysts identified two major variables affecting the market: the unexpectedly strong US dollar index and the significant upward revision of the US Q2 GDP, which diminishes expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - The A-share market is showing signs of extreme sentiment, with less than 800 out of over 5,000 stocks in a bullish trend, raising concerns about a potential cooling in the technology sector [7] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the long-term upward foundation of the A-share market remains intact, supported by continuous inflows of medium to long-term capital and ongoing reforms in the capital market [8] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a slow bullish trend in Q4, driven by structural recovery in earnings and favorable liquidity conditions [8] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following sustained upward movements, with short-term pullbacks presenting buying opportunities [8][9]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.65%, reaching a 1.5-week high, supported by comments from Fed Chair Powell and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicating a less dovish stance from the Fed [1][3] - Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [3] Group 2: New Home Sales - US August new home sales unexpectedly increased by +20.5% month-over-month to a 3.5-year high of 800,000, contrasting with expectations of a decline to 650,000 [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB - The euro fell by -0.68% against the dollar, pressured by dollar strength and a decline in the German September IFO business climate survey, which dropped -1.2 to a 4-month low of 87.7 [4][5] - ECB Executive Board member Cipollone stated that inflation risks in the Eurozone are balanced, with no major threats to inflation, and swaps indicate a 1% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen and Manufacturing - The USD/JPY rose by +0.83%, with the yen falling to a 3-week low due to signs of weakness in Japanese manufacturing, as indicated by the September S&P manufacturing PMI contracting the most in 6 months [6] - Japan's Ministry of Finance announced plans to cut the issuance of long-term government debt for the second time this year, which may provide some support for the yen [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the weakening US job market, falling consumer confidence index, and relatively controllable inflation pressure, the market trades on the Fed's rate - cut expectations and anticipates an accelerated pace of rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic stagflation support precious metal prices at high levels, with silver showing more resilience. Before the September rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, but volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September meeting and Sino - US economic and trade talks this week [5] - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Gold and Silver - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, London gold spot price was at $3636.27/ounce (-0.4%), London silver spot price was at $42.12/ounce (0.2%), COMEX gold was at $3674.10/ounce (-0.4%), COMEX silver was at $42.61/ounce (0.0%), AU2510 was at 831.60 yuan/gram (-0.3%), AG2510 was at 10017.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.2%), AU (T + D) was at 828.56 yuan/gram (-0.3%), and AG (T + D) was at 9997.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.1%) [3] 2. Spread/Ratio of Gold and Silver - From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from -3.54 yuan/gram to -3.04 yuan/gram (-14.1%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from -25 yuan/kilogram to -20 yuan/kilogram (-20.0%), the spread of gold's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -2.80 yuan/gram to -2.15 yuan/gram (-23.3%), the spread of silver's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -741 yuan/kilogram to -776 yuan/kilogram (4.8%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed from 83.13 to 83.02 (-0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed from 86.58 to 86.23 (-0.4%), AU2512 - 2510 changed from 2.48 yuan/gram to 2.50 yuan/gram (0.8%), and AG2512 - 2510 changed from 26 yuan/kilogram to 28 yuan/kilogram (7.7%) [3] 3. Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 974.8 tons (-0.32%), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15069.6026 tons (0.00%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 324875 contracts (2.87%), the non - commercial short position was 63135 contracts (-4.72%), the non - commercial net long position was 261740 contracts (4.89%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 72450 contracts (-2.71%), the non - commercial short position was 18513 contracts (-0.16%), and the non - commercial net long position was 53937 contracts (-3.55%) [3] 4. Inventory Data - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 53226.00 kilograms (0.52%), SHFE silver inventory was 1243481.00 kilograms (-0.25%), COMEX gold inventory was 38914491 troy ounces (0.01% compared with September 12), and COMEX silver inventory was 527423230 troy ounces (0.55% compared with September 12) [3] 5. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Equity Market - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (0.09%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% (1.25%), the US dollar index was 97.62 (0.05%), the VIX was 14.76 (0.34%), the S&P 500 was 6584.29 (-0.05%), NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 (0.58%), and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11 (1.14%) [4]

Core Insights - Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) shares increased by 15.32% to $4.44 in after-hours trading following the announcement of strategic enhancements to its HomePro program [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The Tempe-based company has improved its HomePro agent partnership program, which streamlines real estate transactions and enhances agent productivity by managing property assessments and reducing administrative tasks [2] - CEO Brian Bair stated that these operational enhancements position Offerpad for growth as the company continues to expand the program [3] Group 2: Market Context - The momentum of OPAD aligns with the overall strength in the real estate sector, as investors are anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are expected to benefit mortgage-dependent companies like Offerpad [3][4] - Major investment banks predict multiple Federal rate cuts through 2026, further supporting the positive outlook for companies in the real estate market [4] Group 3: Technical Metrics - OPAD's stock price surged from a low of $0.91 on June 30 to a one-year high of $6.23 on August 28, with a significant increase in trading volume from 82,000 shares to 112 million shares [5] - The company has a market capitalization of $117.75 million and has shown a 35.09% gain year-to-date, trading within a 52-week range of $0.91 to $6.35 [5]