Group 1 - Treasury yields increased as investor concerns grow that Federal Reserve rate cuts may not occur due to rising inflation driven by the Middle East conflict [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points to 4.38%, while the 2-year note yield also increased by 10 basis points to 3.932% [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the key interest rate unchanged, reflecting a shift in market expectations towards potential rate hikes instead of cuts [4][5] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has led to increased oil prices and heightened labor market uncertainty, influencing the economic outlook [3] - Oil prices saw a decline, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropping 1.2% to $94.99 per barrel and Brent crude decreasing 1.3% to $107.28 per barrel [6] - The potential lifting of sanctions on Iranian crude stored on tankers was indicated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which may help alleviate price pressures [6]

Group 1 - The legal battle between Fed Chairman J. Powell and President Donald Trump is highlighted, with Kevin Walsh caught in the middle [1] - J. Powell's recent press conference had a more negative impact on stocks than significant geopolitical events, indicating market sensitivity to Fed communications [2] - Economists predict GDP growth of slightly over 2% this year with an inflation rate below 3%, but these estimates are met with skepticism [3] Group 2 - The ongoing war is expected to last four to six weeks, with oil prices rising but not reaching extreme levels seen in the past [4] - There is a business boom characterized by capital spending and factory construction, driven by tax cuts and deregulation [5] - Post-war, oil prices are anticipated to normalize, leading to a significant drop in temporary wartime inflation [6] Group 3 - J. Powell's statements suggest that there will be no significant Fed rate cuts this year, a shift from previous market expectations [6][7] - Powell's intention to remain in his position until the Justice Department investigation concludes raises questions about his authority and the Fed's independence [7][10] - The confirmation process for Kevin Walsh as a board member is tied to ongoing legal disputes, impacting market sentiment regarding Powell's future [9]

Treasury Yields Rise on Fed Day as U.S. Prices Remain HotCONCLUDEDStock Market News From March 18, 2026: Dow Sinks 770 PointsLast Updated:9 hours agoTreasury Yields Rise on Fed Day as U.S. Prices Remain HotByPaulo Trevisani, Dow Jones NewswiresTreasury yields rise following three consecutive daily declines as hostilities in the Mideast continue, oil rises and U.S. wholesale inflation surprises to the upside.Hotter-than-expected February PPI bolsters the case for the Fed to remain on pause beyond today's exp ...

March 16, 2026 05:00 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Scenarios for Gold Gold's weakness since the start of the conflict is not unexpected, and history suggests it can rebound quickly after shocks. However, if we see more persistent inflation that drives rate hikes, the set-up may be more challenging. We continue to see upside, but two-way risks are rising. Key Takeaways Gold has been under pressure since the start of the Middle East conflict: Gold is down 5% since Feb 27 as strong YTD performance, a strengthenin ...

Group 1 - The market pricing for incremental Federal Reserve rate cuts has decreased this year amid energy price volatility [1] - Higher fuel costs are expected to negatively impact discretionary consumer spending, particularly in sectors like lodging, leading to potential near-term effects [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in investing since high school, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-term fundamental investment approach [1] - The author primarily covers REITs and financials on Seeking Alpha, with occasional insights on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macroeconomic trends [1]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) for February rose by 0.3%, matching expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation rate holding steady at 2.4% [1][1][1] - Shelter inflation has decreased, with primary rent rising only 0.1%, the lowest monthly gain since January 2021, and owner's equivalent rent increasing by 0.2% [1][1][1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.2%, maintaining a 12-month core inflation rate of 2.5%, tied for the lowest level since early 2021 [1][1][1] Group 2 - Markets are currently pricing in a minimal chance (0.7%) of a rate cut at the upcoming March 18 Federal Reserve meeting, with odds of a cut through April 29 at just 11% [1][1][1] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 0.1% early Wednesday, reflecting fluctuations in oil prices, and the index ended the previous session 2.8% below its record closing high from January 27 [1][1][1] - Economists forecast the overall CPI to rise by 0.3%, keeping the headline inflation rate at 2.4%, while core prices are expected to rise by 0.2% [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT) has experienced a decline in early 2026 gains due to market expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, primarily driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 1: Market Impact - The ETF's performance is closely linked to interest rate expectations, which have shifted as the market anticipates fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach discussed includes a focus on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-term fundamental perspective on investing [1].

Market Overview - Bitcoin remains above the $70,000 threshold, showing a near 10% recovery after a week of geopolitical panic, with S&P 500 futures rebounding to 6,840 [1] - The bond market is signaling caution, with a significant drop in the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts from 80% to less than 50% due to rising oil prices [2] Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has increased from 3.93% to 4.15% over four consecutive days, indicating tighter economic conditions [5] - An energy shock from rising oil prices complicates the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to a decrease in liquidity in the crypto market if yields rise above 4.25% [3][5] Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin is acting as a hedge against geopolitical chaos, showing resilience despite market stress, and could benefit if the oil situation stabilizes without causing broader inflation [6] - The key level for Bitcoin to watch is $74,000, which, if surpassed, would indicate strong demand that could counteract bond market warnings [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has not followed the typical pattern of rising during geopolitical tensions, particularly since the onset of the Iran war, with analysts attributing this to a stronger U.S. dollar and liquidity concerns rather than a decline in safe-haven demand [1][8]. Price Movements - Following the start of the Iran war, spot gold initially surged to $5,260 per ounce but then experienced a sharp pullback, dropping nearly 3.6% to around $5,137 per ounce on March 3 [2]. - As of the latest data, gold was priced at approximately $5,165.63 per ounce, translating to about $166.08 per gram and $166,078.74 per kilogram [2]. Analyst Forecasts - Morgan Stanley has raised its long-term gold price forecast to $4,500, maintaining a bullish year-end 2026 target of $6,300 [3]. - Other major banks have set various targets for gold prices, with Morgan Stanley predicting $5,700 per ounce in a bull case scenario for the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs anticipates $5,400 by December 2026 [7]. Influencing Factors - Analysts from Morgan Stanley highlight that expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, currency market dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and liquidity issues are currently shaping gold's price trajectory [4]. - The bank suggests that if geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices are likely to rise in the future [5].

Group 1: Oil Prices and Market Reactions - Fears of rising oil prices are impacting markets, with US stocks experiencing a sell-off after Iran's attack on a crude tanker, raising concerns about inflation [1][4] - April futures for West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 6% to $79 a barrel, marking the highest level in about eight months [1] - Brent crude traded around $83 a barrel, up 4%, close to its peak of approximately $84 earlier in the week [2] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - Major US stock indexes fell significantly, with the Dow dropping 900 points around midday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also declined [2] - Despite the overall market downturn, shares of Berkshire Hathaway rose after the company announced a stock buyback, with CEO Greg Abel purchasing $15 million in shares [3] Group 3: Economic Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the potential inflationary effects of the US-Iran conflict, reminiscent of the stagflationary period in the 1970s [4] - Economists at Oxford Economics suggest that the shock to energy prices may be short-lived, but prolonged conflict could lead to more severe inflation [5] - Higher oil prices could complicate the inflation situation and impact the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts, which are crucial for sustaining the bull market [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Insights - Analysts note that while higher oil prices may currently benefit Iran, both the US and Iran have incentives to de-escalate the conflict due to the political and economic costs associated with high prices [8]