Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver its next interest-rate cut in June, while J.P. Morgan sees the next move as a hike in 2027. ...

Friday could be a big day for the stock market, as an important and closely watched government report will be published before markets open. And it may push asset prices up or down dramatically. I'm talking about the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that comes out every month. This is the major gauge of inflation in the U.S. economy, and the January data will be published on Friday, Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stoc ...

Core Viewpoint - Futures linked to U.S. blue-chip indexes increased, while the dollar declined as investors anticipate insights from the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 1 - U.S. blue-chip index futures experienced a rise, indicating positive investor sentiment [1] - The dollar showed a downward trend, reflecting market reactions to economic indicators [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Wednesday, which may influence future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing volatility, with a recent rally bringing positive sentiment, particularly for those with retirement accounts [2][16] - The Dow has seen significant movement, with a 1200-point increase and a 4% jump in technology stocks, indicating strong market participation [16] Economic Indicators - Expectations for the upcoming jobs report include the addition of 55,000 new jobs, an increase from the previous period's 50,000 [11] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4%, with wage inflation expected to decrease by 0.1% [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain data-dependent, focusing on employment and inflation metrics, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [14][15] - A June rate cut of 25 basis points is considered possible, with further cuts contingent on rising unemployment and decreasing inflation [15] Sector Performance - The technology sector, while previously trading at a 62% premium, has seen its valuation cut to a 27% premium, indicating a correction [9] - Earnings in the tech sector are expected to grow by over 30% in 2026 and another 20% in 2027, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors [10] Year-End Projections - The S&P 500 is projected to end the year with a sub-7% gain, targeting around 7400, consistent with historical performance in midterm election years [18][19] - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and energy are showing signs of improvement and may be good bets for the year [21]

Core Viewpoint - Ameriprise Financial (AMP) shares have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately 13% of their value due to concerns about peaking revenue from cash sweep amid Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Company Performance - The decline in Ameriprise's stock value is attributed to worries regarding revenue generation from cash sweep operations, which are impacted by the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]

ToplineGold and silver prices surged early Thursday morning, with silver toppling the $120 mark and gold nearing an all-time high of $5,600, up more than $200 from just one day ago as tensions between the United States and Iran mount and the dollar weakens. The prices of gold and silver have surged this week. (Photo by Yoray Liberman/Getty Images)Getty ImagesKey FactsThe price of gold is about $5,535.10 as of 9:30 a.m. EST, up more than 4.3% today but slightly down from an all-time high of $5,586.20 earlier ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly, climbing 60.88% over the past six months and 93.20% over the past year, with a recent increase of 6.93% in the last five days, surpassing the $5,200 mark [1][11] - Geopolitical tensions and tariff frictions are driving market volatility and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and a declining U.S. dollar are supporting the bullish outlook for gold [4][6] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Renewed tariff threats from President Trump against South Korea and earlier threats against Canada are escalating trade tensions, which are contributing to market unease and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [3][5] - Ongoing U.S. military actions and heightened tensions in regions like Syria, Venezuela, and the Middle East are reinforcing investor demand for gold [5] Market Dynamics - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 2.24% over the past five days and 10.75% over the past year, with an all-time decline of 19.81%, making gold more affordable for international buyers [7] - Inflows into gold and precious metals commodity funds reached $1.96 billion in the week ending January 21, marking the 10th week of net purchases in 11 weeks, indicating strong investor interest [8] Central Bank Activity - Central bank gold purchases are expected to remain robust, with Goldman Sachs projecting monthly buying to average around 60 metric tons [9] - Analysts forecast that gold prices could potentially reach $6,000 in 2026, driven by strong demand from central banks and retail investors amid escalating global tensions [10] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "buy-the-dip" strategy to increase exposure to gold, as the fundamentals supporting the rally remain strong [13] - Recommended gold ETFs for increased exposure include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), among others [14][15] - For those interested in gold mining, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), which can magnify gains and losses associated with gold prices [16][17]

Group 1 - The precious metal rally is supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased central bank purchases amid a global de-dollarization trend [1] - The dollar's significant drop since January 19 has been a major driving force behind the gold rally [1] - President Trump's comments have intensified concerns about the dollar's value, contributing to its decline and gold's rise [2] Group 2 - Traders are looking for insights from Fed Chair Powell regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with most analysts expecting a cautious approach [3] - Investors are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, justifying an 18% gain in gold so far in 2026 [4] - Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale have raised their gold price targets to $6,000 by the end of 2026 due to bullish fundamental factors [5]

Earnings Reports - Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) are scheduled to report earnings after the market closes today, with market expectations being closely monitored [6] - Companies reporting today also include AT&T (T) and IBM (IBM) [16] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive rate cuts, with the timing of any future cuts being a key focus [7] - Most FOMC members are not in a hurry to ease policy further, as the labor market shows signs of softening but is not raising urgent alarms, and inflation remains above the 2% target without signs of a dramatic resurgence [8] - There is a disconnect between the FOMC's projected rate path for 2026 and market expectations, with the FOMC indicating only a single rate cut in 2026, while markets anticipate two cuts this year [8] Corporate Developments - SoftBank (SFTBY) is considering an additional investment of $30 billion in OpenAI (OPENAI) [9] - SpaceX (SPACE) is targeting a mid-June IPO with a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion [9] - UnitedHealth (UNH) has indicated potential benefit cuts due to disappointing Medicare rates [10] - UPS (UPS) plans to cut 30,000 jobs as it ends its partnership with Amazon [11] - Amazon (AMZN) is set to close its Go and Fresh stores while expanding its Whole Foods operations [12] - Boeing (BA) aims for 500 deliveries of its 737 aircraft as its inventory nears exhaustion [13] - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) will pay $40 million to settle SEC claims regarding performance inflation [14] - Tether, the issuer of the USDT-USD stablecoin, has emerged as a significant beneficiary of the recent gold rally [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the macroeconomic environment in the United States, particularly regarding GDP growth, consumer spending, labor market conditions, inflation, and monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: - GDP growth in 2025 was forecasted at 2.4% on a Q4/Q4 basis, surpassing the consensus of 2.0%. Actual growth was 2.5% from Q1 to Q3, with an expected 2.4% in Q4 despite a 1.2 percentage point drag from a government shutdown [4][3]. 2. **Consumer Spending**: - Consumer spending growth was anticipated to be 2.3%, slightly above the consensus of 2%. Actual growth was 2.2% from Q1 to Q3, with an expected increase to 2.6% in Q4, maintaining the forecasted average [5][5]. 3. **Labor Market Trends**: - Contrary to expectations, the labor market softened, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.25% to 4.4%. This was attributed to slower job growth despite a decrease in immigration and labor supply growth [6][6]. 4. **Inflation Rates**: - Core PCE inflation was expected to fall below 2.4% year-on-year. The actual rate was projected at 2.98% in December, with tariffs contributing 62 basis points to this rate. The decline in inflation was linked to labor market rebalancing [8][7]. 5. **Federal Reserve Monetary Policy**: - The Federal Reserve was expected to cut rates by at least 50 basis points, which occurred with three cuts throughout the year. The median neutral rate estimate remained stable at 3%, contrary to expectations of an increase [11][12]. 6. **Immigration Trends**: - Net immigration was expected to remain positive but fell from an annualized pace of 1.5 million to around 0.5 million by year-end, slightly below previous forecasts [14][14]. 7. **Tariff Policies**: - The anticipated universal tariff was not implemented; however, substantial reciprocal tariffs were imposed, raising the effective tariff rate significantly more than expected. The effective tariff rate is projected to decrease slightly in 2026 due to new deals [15][17]. 8. **Primary Deficit**: - It was expected that Congress would not meaningfully reduce the primary deficit, which was confirmed as tariff revenues did not sufficiently offset new tax cuts [19][19]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis reflects on the unexpected outcomes of fiscal policies under the Trump administration, particularly regarding their impact on monetary policy and economic indicators. - The report emphasizes the complexity of predicting economic trends due to external factors such as tariffs and immigration policies, which have significant implications for the labor market and inflation [1][2].