Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh is considered a reasonable choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, with significant experience from his previous tenure during the Global Financial Crisis, but the challenge lies in maintaining the Fed's independence from political influence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Credentials and Experience - Warsh has a strong background in financial markets, having worked at Morgan Stanley and served as an economic advisor to President George W. Bush before his time on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 [3][4]. - His experience during the 2008 financial crisis is highlighted as a critical aspect of his qualifications for the role [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges Ahead - The main concern is whether Warsh can ensure that interest rates are determined by economic conditions rather than political pressures, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has expressed a desire for lower rates [2][5]. - Maintaining the Fed's independence is emphasized as a crucial factor for Warsh's legacy as chair, with various economists stressing the importance of this independence [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a contentious confirmation process in the Senate [1] Group 1: Nomination and Background - Kevin Warsh, aged 55, previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was considered for the Fed chair position when Trump nominated Jerome Powell in 2017 [1] - Jerome Powell was confirmed in a bipartisan manner and reappointed during the Biden administration in 2022, but his term is set to expire in May [2] Group 2: Political Reactions - Some Republican senators have expressed concerns about the nomination process, with one senator vowing to block any Fed nomination unless the Department of Justice (DOJ) drops its investigation into Powell [5][12] - Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott emphasized the importance of accountability and credibility in the Federal Reserve, stating that Warsh's nomination reflects this focus [7][8] - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the nomination, suggesting that Warsh's loyalty to Trump was prioritized over the Fed's independence [10] Group 3: Support and Criticism - Senator Thom Tillis acknowledged Warsh's qualifications but reiterated his opposition to any Fed nominee until the DOJ's inquiry into Powell is resolved [12][13] - Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed the need for the Federal Reserve to embrace digital assets and innovation, supporting Warsh's nomination [16] - Senator Dave McCormick praised Warsh as a suitable candidate to fulfill the Fed's mandate of maintaining inflation control while promoting growth and job opportunities [18]

Market Overview - The S&P/TSX composite index decreased by 992.37 points, closing at 32,023.76 [1] - The Dow Jones industrial average fell by 529.07 points to 48,542.49, while the S&P 500 index dropped by 55.96 points to 6,913.05, and the Nasdaq composite declined by 225.71 points to 23,459.41 [2] Gold and Metal Prices - The April gold contract saw a significant decline of US$348.80, settling at US$5,006.00 per ounce, although gold prices have increased by over 70% in the past year [1] - The decline in metal prices is attributed to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new U.S. Federal Reserve chair, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and led to a selloff in gold and other metals [2][3] Federal Reserve Influence - The leadership of the Federal Reserve has a substantial impact on the economy and global markets, particularly regarding interest rate decisions that affect investment prices [3] - Concerns exist that President Trump's influence may compromise the Fed's independence, which has historically allowed it to make difficult decisions to address long-term economic issues like inflation [5] Technology Sector Impact - Large technology companies, particularly Microsoft, have contributed to market declines, with Microsoft experiencing a 10% selloff despite reporting stronger-than-expected earnings [6] - Investors are focusing on Microsoft's investment spending rather than its profit and revenue performance, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards tech stocks [6] Currency Exchange - The Canadian dollar traded at 73.69 cents US, a slight decrease from 73.99 cents US the previous day [6] Oil Prices - The March crude oil contract increased by 26 cents, reaching US$65.68 per barrel [7]

watch nowIn his first stint at the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh came to a central bank that was about to be asked to save the world. He returns now under very different circumstances, asked to serve a notoriously fickle president who will place significant but very different demands on him.Warsh indeed is a Fed veteran, serving during the critical period of 2006 to 2011 that led up to and ultimately through the global financial crisis and the central bank's efforts to stabilize the economy. Appointed by Pre ...

鲍威尔还对下一任美联储主席提出建议："不要卷入选举政治。不要这么做。" 鲍威尔在当日下午举行的发布会上表示，美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新的数据。 公告显示，联邦公开市场委员会12名成员中，支持当日货币政策会议决定的有10人，投反对票的是美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒，二人主张降息25个基点。 鲍威尔说，当前联邦基金利率大体上为"中性"。去年12月美国核心通胀率很可能达到3%，预计关税影 响将在今年年中达到峰值。若物价如此前预期在今年触顶并开始回落，意味着美联储有可能放松货币政 策。若劳动力市场未能企稳，美联储也会降息。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题的提 问。不过，他表示，如果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均强烈致力于维护美联储独立 性。 美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至 3.75%之间不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避有关自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者 不要卷入政治纷争。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has initiated a series of attacks on the Federal Reserve, including a criminal investigation into its chair, Jerome H. Powell [1] Group 1 - The administration's actions represent a significant escalation in its criticism of the Federal Reserve [1] - The investigation into Jerome H. Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - This situation may impact market confidence and the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has reached a 4.25-month low, primarily influenced by speculation regarding potential currency intervention with Japan and domestic political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar index (DXY00) has decreased by 0.79%, hitting a 4.25-month low [1]. - Speculation about US coordination with Japan for currency intervention has contributed to the dollar's decline, as it aligns with President Trump's view that a weaker dollar benefits US exports [2]. - The yen has appreciated to a 2.5-month high against the dollar, influenced by reports of US authorities checking dollar/yen prices, indicating possible intervention [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Political risks are prompting foreign investors to withdraw capital from the US, exacerbating the dollar's weakness [3]. - President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China has added to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [4]. - The potential for another partial US government shutdown is creating additional pressure on the dollar, with Senate Democrats threatening to block funding deals [5]. - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, a growing US budget deficit, and increasing political polarization are also contributing to the dollar's decline [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - ADP reported that US private payrolls increased by an average of 7,750 per week in the four weeks ending January 3, marking the smallest job growth in six weeks [6]. - The Conference Board's US January consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell by 9.7 points to an 11.5-year low of 84.5, which is weaker than anticipated [6].

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. Gold Surges Past $5,000 for First Time, Silver Soars Again. Why They Can Keep Rallying. By Alex Kozul-Wright In this article GC00 SPX NEM ABX Gold rockets past $5,000 for first time. Its rally isn't showing any signs of slo ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's public campaign to influence the Federal Reserve may inadvertently lead to Jerome Powell remaining in charge of a key policy committee for another term [2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Jerome Powell's term as chair officially ends in May, but he could legally remain on the policy committee, a scenario that was previously considered unlikely [3][12]. - Tensions between President Trump and Powell have escalated, leading to speculation that Powell may continue as a governor or even as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after his chairmanship ends [4][11]. - Powell's potential continuation as a Fed governor would be a rare occurrence in the history of the Federal Reserve, indicating a commitment to the Fed's independence from political influence [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If Powell remains on the Fed, it could signal the central bank's determination to maintain its independence, but it may also perpetuate political conflict and uncertainty [5]. - Trump has pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that this would benefit household budgets and reduce federal interest payments [7]. - The Fed has cut interest rates three times recently to support the economy, but officials are expected to hold rates steady due to ongoing inflation concerns [8]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Fed has become strained, with legal actions taken against Fed leaders, which the White House claims are based on legal and ethical grounds rather than political motives [9]. - Trump's criticism of Powell has been frequent, and he has expressed a desire to remove him from his position, although he downplayed concerns about Powell potentially staying on [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court justices appear to support the preservation of the Federal Reserve's independence in setting monetary policy, indicating that undermining this independence could lead to significant economic risks [1] Group 1 - The arguments presented during the Supreme Court session focused on President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [1] - The justices' discussions highlighted the importance of maintaining the central bank's autonomy to effectively manage monetary policy [1] - Concerns were raised that any erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could have tangible negative impacts on the economy [1]