Welcome to Stocks and Translation, Yahoo Finance's video podcast that cuts through the market mayhem, the noisy numbers, and the hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. I'm Jared Flicker, your host, and with me is Yahoo Finance senior reporter Ali Canal, who's here to connect the dots and to be that bridge between Wall Street and Main Street. Today we're going to be talking about the US and global economies and we've got a crack economist to help us do just ...

Government Shutdown Implications - Essential services such as military, law enforcement, and postal services will continue during a government shutdown, but affected workers will not receive paychecks [1][2] - Non-essential services, including national parks and Smithsonian museums, will close, leading to potential damages and trash accumulation [2][3] - Federal Medicare and Medicaid programs are mandatory spending and will not be impacted, while Social Security distributions will continue, though staffing and services may slow down [3][4] Market Reactions - Historically, stocks have shown indifference to government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 often rising rather than falling during such events [5] - A shutdown could delay key economic data releases, such as the jobs report and CPI report, which may affect market sentiment [5] Airline Industry Concerns - Airlines, particularly Breeze Airways, may face immediate operational challenges due to the shutdown, as air traffic controllers and TSA agents are government employees who would work without pay [5][34] - The potential for longer lines and closed checkpoints could disrupt travel and impact airline revenues [2][34] Political Dynamics - Both political parties may view a shutdown as an opportunity for political leverage, with Democrats needing to demonstrate resistance to the Trump administration and Republicans signaling their willingness to negotiate on issues like Obamacare premiums [25][26] - The political landscape is shifting, with factions within both parties potentially supporting a shutdown for various strategic reasons [30][31] Economic Impact Timeline - The initial effects of a shutdown may be minimal, but if it extends beyond a few days, significant economic repercussions could arise, particularly if it lasts for weeks [38] - The government typically catches up on funding after a short shutdown, but prolonged closures could lead to a real drag on the economy [38]

Lisa Cook's side has responded with a brief in the Supreme Court uh just a couple of moments ago posted on the docket. And what Cook's attorneys here are saying is that the president's stay application, remember the president uh is looking to try to force Lisa Cook off of the Federal Reserve Board while this case is being argued before the Supreme Court and he wants a stay from a lower court ruling. Uh they say the president's stay application asks this court to act on an emergency basis to eviscerate the i ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, triggering a jump in bond yields as some investors anticipated a more dovish outlook [1][3] - The market is readjusting for a less aggressive rate-cutting cycle, influenced by investors rethinking the Chair's comments [3] - There is a split within the Federal Reserve committee regarding future rate cuts, with differing opinions on the number of cuts for the remainder of the year [2][4][6] - Bank of America Research believes there will be only one more rate cut this year, as they do not foresee enough improvement on the inflation side to justify two cuts [7][8] Economic Indicators & Outlook - The labor market is confusing, but other measures of the economy do not suggest it is falling apart [10][11] - Upward revisions to August payrolls are expected, and the focus may shift back to inflation [10] - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to move between 42% and 44% [16] Credit Market Dynamics - Credit spreads have tightened to the lowest level since 1998, increasing the importance of careful credit selection [1][26] - The market is experiencing strong liquidity and benign macroeconomic conditions, with low defaults and volatility [29][30] - The majority of supply in the credit market has been refinancing, with no net growth in these markets for the last few years [29] - Leveraged loan maturity walls are no longer a risk, but an opportunity, as much of the maturity wall has been refinanced [36]

Is the Fed really is as independent as some pundits want it to be? The recent confirmation of Trump's pick Stephen Miran, who is also keeping his job in the White House, has brought this question to the forefront of everyone's minds. @svaneksmith and @chafkin ask @ChopraUSAhis thoughts on this week's episode of Everybody's Business https://t.co/lQODUzi51U ...

[Music] That is the closing bell on Wall Street. And now it's market domination overtime. Getting you full team coverage of all the moves to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade.Yahoo Finances Jared Blickery joining us here to break down the moves today. Jared, what are you seeing at that close. >> Well, looks like a loss for the three major indices.And we'll start with the Dow here, down about a quarter of a percent or 125 basis points. And a quick recap of the price action for the day. The ...

Democrats are introducing a bill in the Senate aimed at drawing a firmer line between the White House and the Federal Reserve, hours after Stephen Miran was sworn in as a Fed governor while still holding a White House position https://t.co/3F29k5gjtQ ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with some hoping for a half-point cut, following recent inflation data showing a drop in wholesale prices and a significant rise in consumer prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The final inflation data before the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting indicates a surprise drop in annual wholesale prices, while consumer prices have seen their largest annual increase since January [1]. - Investors are largely expecting at least a quarter-point rate cut, with discussions around the potential for a half-point cut [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 25 basis points cut at the next meeting, with future intentions indicated in a dot plot for subsequent meetings [3][4]. Economic Context - The current economic landscape includes weak job data and revisions, which support the case for a rate cut [3]. - If the Federal Reserve suggests two more rate cuts, Wall Street anticipates an additional 25 basis points cut in October and another in December, totaling a 75 basis points reduction by year-end [4]. Federal Reserve Leadership - James Bullard, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, confirms discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant regarding his candidacy [5][6]. - There are criticisms regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve was slow to respond to inflation surges in 2021, 2022, and 2023 [7][8][9]. - The Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with legal proceedings ongoing [11][12][13]. Federal Reserve Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence is emphasized, with a call for clear definitions regarding the roles and protections of committee members [12][14][15]. - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's operational effectiveness and independence is deemed essential for sound monetary policy [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's legal team is seeking to expedite the process of removing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is crucial for interest rate decisions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Trump's lawyers have filed a request with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to allow his attempt to fire Cook to proceed before the FOMC meeting next week [1][2]. - A lower-court judge had previously blocked Trump's attempt to remove Cook while her lawsuit against him is ongoing [1][4]. - The appeal seeks a ruling by Monday afternoon to influence the FOMC's decisions regarding open market activities [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump is advocating for a reduction in interest rates to stimulate economic growth and lower the costs associated with national debt [3]. - He has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates in 2025 and has previously considered firing him [3]. Group 3: Allegations and Responses - Trump cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook as justification for her removal, although Cook has denied these allegations [4]. - Trump anticipates that he will soon have a majority on the Fed board that will support lowering interest rates [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - The judge's ruling emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, suggesting that reinstating Cook serves the public interest [5].