US stocks extended declines Thursday as investors awaited fresh catalysts and an inflation report that may shape Federal Reserve policy https://t.co/mAFlrxb1k9 ...

As we mentioned, at 8:30 Eastern time, we're going to be getting a read on the inflation at the producer level. Tomorrow morning, we get the consumer level with CPI data. Joining us right now with her take on the economy is Lindseay PZA.She is chief economist at Stiffel. And Lindsay, it seems like things are really kind of heating up for the Fed. You're at this weird inflection point.We know that the jobs picture is even worse than we had expected with those revisions that came yesterday. You saw what the T ...

Core Viewpoint - Royal Caribbean has experienced significant stock growth, but may face challenges in maintaining momentum due to macroeconomic factors and consumer spending trends [1][2][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - Royal Caribbean's stock has surged more than sevenfold over the past three years and more than doubled for the fiscal year ending August 21 [1]. - The company is recognized as one of the best executors in the cruise industry, with a loyalty program that encourages repeat visitation [4]. - Analysts expect Royal Caribbean to achieve growth in EBITDA, free cash flow, and revenue this year and in 2026, with a strong earnings per share (EPS) trajectory [6]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company faces tough year-over-year comparisons and macroeconomic headwinds that could impact its performance [2][7]. - Royal Caribbean has significant outstanding liabilities of $19 billion against cash and cash equivalents of $735 million, making it sensitive to interest rate changes [9]. - Consumer sentiment is showing signs of weakening, with a Deutsche Bank survey indicating that travelers aged 55 and up expect to spend 4% less on their next cruise [12]. Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Royal Caribbean trades at 17 times earnings, which is higher than its peer group trading at 10x to 13x, potentially leading investors to seek other cruise stocks [13]. - Historical reluctance among investors to own all major cruise stocks simultaneously may affect Royal Caribbean's attractiveness [14]. - The company is seen as a challenging investment due to its dependence on consumer sentiment and macroeconomic data, suggesting that investors may look for better opportunities [15].

For more on the jobs report and possible impact of Fed policy, I want to bring in Roger Ferguson. Uh he is the former Fed vice chairman, someone who has been inside that room. He's been pretty right about what the Fed's going to do throughout all of this.Uh he's also a CNBC contributor. So you saw the numbers, sir. What was your uh your reaction as you were watching those pour through.Yeah, my reaction was it's roughly as expected. We know that there are many signs that the job market is cooling, but I woul ...

Market Sentiment & Fed Policy - The market is trying to interpret whether bad economic news will lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - A softening job market could prompt the Fed to act, but the S&P 500's level of approximately 6,300 may not reflect this potential weakness [3] - Inflation is seen as a greater constraint on the Fed's actions than weak jobs data [9] - The market is anticipating the August payroll number before the next Fed meeting [7] Economic Indicators & Job Market - A previous jobs report was considered bad news due to a Fed governor stepping down and issues with the BLS [2] - A three-month average of 35,000 jobs was the worst seen since before COVID [7] - There's a possibility of a large "jolts number," indicating a shortage of people to fill available payroll positions [11] Earnings Season & Market Outlook - The recent earnings season has been extraordinary, with approximately 9% of companies beating earnings estimates and around 7.5% beating top-line estimates, and about 4% on the bottom line [5] - Despite stellar reports from mega-cap tech companies, the market experienced a sell-off [13] - August through October are historically the weakest months for the S&P 500, suggesting a potential revisit of the sell-off in the coming weeks [12]

Market Reaction & Data Trust - Market is likely to react to recent data revisions, but a significant fallout is not immediately apparent [1][2] - The market was surprised due to lower volatility and liquidity during the summer months [2] - The industry continues to trust the data, acknowledging that some data points are estimates that are backfilled later [5] - Every report needs to be scrutinized in the context of the Federal Reserve's policy shift [6] Labor Market & Economic Narrative - The focus remains on the labor market, specifically the absence of increased layoffs [3] - The prevailing narrative is that employers are hoarding labor [4] - The market perceives the labor market as more critical than inflation, a sentiment telegraphed by the Federal Reserve [8] - Fears of the Federal Reserve being behind the curve are expected to escalate [9] Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy - Incremental inflationary pressures are considered less of a concern, with a return to the "transitory" narrative [10] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are expected to be more concerning to the Federal Reserve [11] - It's possible the Federal Reserve would have acted differently on rate policy with correct data [8] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to remain overly diversified across risk spectrums [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and foreign markets have been supportive [12] - The industry is constantly seeking opportunities to add or reduce risk based on the evolving environment [13]

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...