Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3 is being challenged by economist David Rosenberg, who claims the true growth is only 0.8% due to underlying economic weaknesses masked by government spending and depleted savings [1][3]. Economic Growth Analysis - The BEA reported a real GDP increase from 3.8% in Q2 to 4.3% in Q3, primarily driven by consumer spending, exports, and government spending [2]. - Rosenberg argues that the reported figures are misleading, suggesting that when government spending, shifting import data, and a significant decline in personal savings are excluded, the economy shows minimal expansion [3][4]. Diverging Perspectives - The report has ignited a debate among analysts, with Rosenberg viewing the economy as hollow and reliant on unsustainable spending, while Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research perceives a concerning nominal boom [4]. - Johnson noted that nominal GDP growth exceeded 8%, with a GDP price index of 3.8%, which is significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, raising concerns about inflation and the Fed's current easing policies [5][6].

The dollar is heading for its worst annual performance in eight years, and the options market is signaling that traders are preparing for more downside in the final sessions of 2025 and beyond. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4% on Tuesday to the lowest level since early October before trimming its loss after a report showed US economic growth accelerated last quarter. The greenback index is down about 8% this year, putting it on track for its worst year since 2017, and the options marke ...

Rates are drifting lower, not falling fast. And most housing economists now agree that a dramatic drop in mortgage rates in 2026 is unlikely. That does not mean buyers are locked out of the market. It means expectations need to be reset.Mortgage rates today show little movement for both purchases and refinances, based on national averages from Zillow. The 30-year fixed rate is 6.04%, while the 20-year fixed is 5.89%. Borrowers choosing shorter terms continue to see lower rates, with the 15-year fixed at 5. ...

US stock futures rose on Wednesday, poised to backtrack on a string of recent slumps as investors continued to debate what the latest jobs data means for Federal Reserve policy and the health of the US economy. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) nudged up 0.1%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) added 0.2%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also moved up 0.2%, after US stocks finished mixed in Tuesday's session.  Also in focus, oil jumped over 2% after President Trump ordered a block ...

Thesis Summary Newmont Corporation (NEM) is not just a gold miner. It is my insurance policy against Federal Reserve policy, fiscal dominance, and currency debasement. The Fed has made its position clear. Liquidity is returning, balance-sheet expansion has resumed under a ...

Joining us now with more on that China and maybe even a little touch of Venezuela is Kyle Bass, founder and CIO at Haymon Capital Management. Kyle, I hope you're ready because we got a lot of things that we want to hit with you. Are you ready. >> I'm ready.>> Let's do this. All right, let's kick things off maybe with the Federal Reserve. Obviously, you're very well known for subprime years ago.Some people suggest the Federal Reserve is making a policy mistake by keeping rates too high for too long. What say ...

So Steve and I were just both talking about it, the potential market moving reports we're getting. The jobs one seems to be the one with the most potential at least coming up on Tuesday. Uh how are you viewing it. What do you see it. What do you see it potentially impacting.>> Well, we're finally getting the government data back and that's most important for just guidance. I we're talking about the Fed and oh by the way, there's a 100% chance that it's going to be a Kevin for the Fed chairmanship moving for ...

Summary of US Rates Outlook 2026 Fixed Income Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US rates market and the economic backdrop as it enters 2026, characterized by stalled inflation progress, uneven growth, and signs of labor market weakness [2][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions - Economic growth in the US is more resilient than expected, potentially boosted by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and AI-driven capital expenditures [7]. - Consumer spending is mixed; higher-income consumers are driving spending while lower-income households face affordability challenges [7]. - Labor market indicators show a modest increase in unemployment and slowing nonfarm payroll growth, but the labor market has not collapsed [7][22]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Disinflation towards the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% inflation target has stalled, with both headline and core inflation measures remaining around 3% [7][29]. - The report forecasts 10-year Treasury yields at 4.30% by the end of 2026, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 4.06% [2][8]. - The Fed is expected to maintain a neutral duration conviction, with potential for yields to rise due to dual-sided risks to policy [6][8]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The conclusion of Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair is a focal point, with potential personnel changes at the FOMC that could influence policy views [4][51]. - The Fed is likely to commence net asset purchases, particularly in T-bills, starting in Q1 2026 to mitigate funding pressures [4][65]. Treasury Supply and Demand - The Treasury's strategy of holding coupon issuance sizes steady is expected to continue through H1 2026, with maturity extension anticipated due to persistent deficit pressures [5][71]. - The report highlights that long-dated Treasuries may underperform swaps in the coming months due to supply and demand dynamics [5][89]. Yield Curve Scenarios - Four policy paths are outlined to frame potential rates outcomes: resilient growth with sticky inflation, inflation resurgence, moderate slowdown, and severe slowdown [3][35]. - The baseline scenario anticipates bear steepening of the yield curve, while an inflation resurgence could push 10-year yields to test 5% [10][39]. Risks and Market Positioning - The balance of risks skews towards further curve steepening, with optimal positioning suggested in the belly of the curve where structural risks are lower [3][46]. - The report cautions against long positions in the front-end due to negative carry and labor market concerns limiting hawkish repricing [9][46]. Additional Important Content - The report discusses the potential impact of the IEEPA tariff decision on fiscal deficits and the Treasury's reliance on T-bills for funding [81][84]. - It notes that the relative value of T-bills may decline as policy rates decrease, potentially shifting demand towards higher-returning risk assets [80][81]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring repo market pressures and their implications for Treasury supply absorption [100]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the US rates outlook for 2026, highlighting key economic indicators, Federal Reserve dynamics, and potential investment strategies within the Treasury market.

Its balance of power on Bloomberg TV and radio alongside Omara Omeokwe I'm Joe Mathieu with breaking news in Washington that just crossed the terminal after we took air this evening on Bloomberg. That could be a new help wanted sign going up at the White House. Of course, if Donald Trump chooses Kevin Hassett to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.That's the expectation. And if he does. Donald Trump's aides and allies are now discussing the possibility of making Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, the to ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a relief rally during Thanksgiving Week, rising approximately 7%, potentially signaling the start of a more substantial rebound supported by the Federal Reserve's possible interest rate cuts in December [1][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF (BTCI), valued at $820.5 million, offers a significant income stream with a 30-day SEC yield of 28.36%, making it an attractive option for investors [2]. - The recent liquidation of tens of billions in long bitcoin positions has put pressure on the market, but a potential rate cut by the Fed could improve the situation [3][4]. - The current market pullback is attributed to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's actions rather than a decline in underlying demand for bitcoin [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Implications - BTCI's income stream is not heavily reliant on Federal Reserve policy, but bitcoin's price movements are influenced by factors such as dollar weakening and lower real yields [5]. - As interest rates fall, traditional cash investments like CDs and money markets may become less attractive, prompting risk-tolerant investors to consider BTCI [6]. - The structural demand for bitcoin, combined with improving liquidity, suggests that the cryptocurrency may still be in a bull market despite recent drawdowns [6].