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欧盟碳市场行情简报(2026年第39期)-20260309
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 11:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - TTF price has strengthened again, and the pressure of policy softening has caused EUA to decouple and pull back [2] - The bullish factor is that Reuters expects European gas storage inventory to drop to the 22 - 27% range at the end of winter, far lower than the five - year average of about 41%, indicating more intense global LNG competition during the summer replenishment window [2] - The bearish factor is that some members of the European Parliament have called on the European Commission to take a more moderate approach in the upcoming EU ETS industry benchmark update [2] - The European Commission will reconsider including the indirect emissions of the metal sector in GBAM from 2027 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Primary market: The auction price is 68.99 euros/ton (-2.49%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.52 [2] - Secondary market: The EUA futures settlement price is 70.35 euros/ton (-0.58%), and the trading volume is 38,400 lots (-0.55) [2] - Signal strength: 0 (0 means short position, ±1 means bullish/bearish, ±2 means strongly bullish/bearish) [2] Strategy - Bullish: Reuters expects European gas storage inventory to drop to the 22 - 27% range at the end of winter, far lower than the five - year average of about 41%, meaning more intense global LNG competition during the summer replenishment window [2] - Bearish: Some members of the European Parliament have called on the European Commission to take a more moderate approach in the upcoming EU ETS industry benchmark update [2] - Other: The European Commission will reconsider including the indirect emissions of the metal sector in GBAM from 2027 [2] Market Data - EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, auction revenue, EUA auction price, and bid coverage ratio on different dates are presented in the table, such as on March 5, 2026, the EUA auction price is 68.99 euros/ton, and the bid coverage ratio is 1.52 [2] - EUA futures and spot market data including futures settlement price, trading volume, spot settlement price, and spot trading volume are provided, with their changes and percentage changes [2]