以下文章来源于芒格书院 ，作者芒格书院小芒 芒格书院 . 由资深出版人施宏俊先生创立，定位于为终身学习者提供学习和思考的知识资源，推动认知升级和思想 分享。 接下来，我将介绍未来5年值得密切关注且可能具备投资价值的几大核心主题： 1.科技领域。第一个毫无疑问是科技领域，但这并不容易，因为科技类股票当前估值普遍较高。 2.金属与采矿业。这一领域可能有些不同寻常，我认为将来可能出现金属短缺，因此相关企业有望迎来爆发 式增长。 3."激情投资"。那些不涉及技术迭代、供给无法扩张的资产，在创新活动极为密集的时期，其价格往往会大 幅上涨。 9月20日下午，丹麦作家、企业家、投资人拉斯·特维德（Lars Tvede）携新作《超智能与未来》现身上海， 在芒格书院与中信出版作家演讲局联合组织的活动中，与书院会员们深度讨论了未来五年最具前景的投资 方向。 拥有横跨金融、科技创业与未来学领域的"跨界头脑"，特维德的经历堪称传奇：他不仅是Supertrends AG创 新地图公司、 Atlas Global Macro对冲基金、Fiftyfive Capital风投基金的联合创始人，更凭借《逃不开的经济 周期》《金融心理学》等著作 ...

以下文章来源于芒格书院 ，作者芒格书院小芒 芒格书院 . 从指数级爆发的AI技术到暗藏机遇的金属矿业，从稀缺而有限的激情投资标的到潜力十足的东盟与中国市 场，再到估值尚且温和的生物科技领域——这位手握对冲基金与风投双重实战经验的投资人，带着他基于 330万年历史数据追踪与4000项技术预测的思考结晶，在活动上倾情分享。 特维德先生的演讲与问答均以英语进行，书院特将本场活动的全部内容翻译并编辑整理出来，以飨读者。 01 值得密切关注的5大主题 非常荣幸能来到这里。我非常欣赏查理·芒格，很遗憾他离开了我们。或许再也没有人能像伯克希尔·哈撒韦 那样进行投资。 由资深出版人施宏俊先生创立，定位于为终身学习者提供学习和思考的知识资源，推动认知升级和思想 分享。 9月20日下午，丹麦作家、企业家、投资人拉斯·特维德（Lars Tvede）携新作《超智能与未来》现身上海， 在芒格书院与中信出版作家演讲局联合组织的活动中，与书院会员们深度讨论了未来五年最具前景的投资 方向。 拥有横跨金融、科技创业与未来学领域的"跨界头脑"，特维德的经历堪称传奇：他不仅是Supertrends AG创 新地图公司、 Atlas Global ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future investment opportunities and risks identified by Lars Tvede, focusing on five key themes for the next five years, including technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [6][9]. Group 1: Key Investment Themes - Technology is highlighted as a primary investment area, although current valuations are generally high [9]. - The metals and mining sector is expected to experience significant growth due to potential shortages, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum [30]. - Passion investments, which include unique assets like prime beachfront properties and limited-edition cars, are anticipated to see increased demand as wealth grows [33]. - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are projected to thrive, with China showing significant innovation capabilities and potential for economic growth [36][37]. - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued and is expected to benefit from advancements in AI, leading to a surge in new products and services [40][42]. Group 2: AI and Its Impact - The article emphasizes that a significant portion of future profits will derive from generative AI, which is expected to create strong business moats for companies that effectively implement it [19][20]. - The effective compute power for AI has increased dramatically, with estimates showing a growth of 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023, and this trend is expected to continue [13]. - The rise of reasoning AI and physical AI is anticipated to transform various industries, with predictions indicating that by 2050, 80% of physical labor could be performed by intelligent robots [22][29]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the current valuation of metals is not overly low, making significant price increases challenging, except for specific metals like uranium [30]. - The Asian markets, particularly those in ASEAN, are highlighted for their potential growth, with low forward P/E ratios and significant economic growth prospects [36][37]. - The Chinese stock market is currently at a historical low, presenting a potential opportunity for significant gains as capital flows into the market [38]. Group 4: Future of Energy - The article discusses the potential for nuclear energy, particularly small modular reactors, to play a crucial role in the future energy landscape, with predictions of significant advancements in nuclear fusion technology [57][59]. - The shift towards nuclear energy is seen as a necessary step for companies to meet energy demands sustainably while reducing carbon emissions [58].