Core Viewpoint - The international oil market is experiencing a mild upward trend, supported by the extension of the tariff suspension period between China and the U.S., which alleviates concerns over trade tensions affecting the year-end consumption season [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude futures settled at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI closed at $63.89 per barrel, with narrowed intraday volatility [1] - The extension of the tariff suspension aims to provide more time for bilateral negotiations and prevent supply chain disruptions during the holiday shopping season [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Attention is shifting to the upcoming U.S.-Russia high-level talks in Alaska, focusing on de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and discussing potential easing of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers [4] - A substantial peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could significantly reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions, potentially providing further upward momentum for oil prices [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is viewed as a critical variable; a signal of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar, providing price support for dollar-denominated oil [5] - Conversely, if inflation remains sticky and exceeds expectations, concerns over tightening liquidity may suppress risk asset performance [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude oil has formed a short-term support level around $63, with short-term moving averages showing signs of stabilization and bullish momentum [6] - Key resistance is identified at $64.80 per barrel; a breakthrough could challenge the $66 per barrel mark, while $63 serves as a critical support level [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The market is currently benefiting from the dual expectations of eased trade tensions and reduced geopolitical conflicts, though the actual impact will depend on the substantive progress of negotiations and Federal Reserve policy direction [8] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the interplay between political and economic signals, along with key technical levels for risk management [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has denied Chinese allegations regarding the presence of a "kill switch" in its data center GPUs for AI, asserting that such features do not exist in their products [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Response to Allegations - Nvidia's Chief Security Officer stated that the company's GPUs do not and should not have kill switches or backdoors [1]. - The response follows a request from the Cyberspace Administration of China for documentation on alleged security vulnerabilities in Nvidia's H20 AI chip [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Nvidia is navigating geopolitical tensions as demand for its AI chips remains high globally, with U.S. lawmakers proposing legislation for location-tracking systems on exported AI chips [3]. - The U.S. has implemented export controls on certain Nvidia chips to China, citing national security concerns related to potential military applications [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Nvidia's CEO has advocated for the company's chips to become the global standard for AI computing, particularly among Chinese developers, suggesting a strategic advantage for the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price fluctuations and a notable decline in demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the fuel oil futures main contract opened at 3062.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 3071.00 CNY and a minimum of 2996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.11% [1]. - Domestic fuel oil sales reached 44,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons or 5.91% from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by reduced exports from Russia and Iran, while Singapore's imports remain high, leading to an overall surplus in the market [2]. - The domestic fuel oil inventory rate increased to 9.0%, up from 7.1%, indicating a rise of 1.9 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has alleviated concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, although tensions remain due to recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [2]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to influence fuel oil prices, with potential for further escalation [2].

Market Recovery & Geopolitical Impact - The markets have recovered all losses since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Iran [1] - Geopolitical conflict means less to the market than it does to individual investors [8] - The market operates on how are things today relative to what was expected a couple of days ago [2] - Likelihood that everything's going to turn out okay is a fantastic way to invest in this market [9] Market Valuation & Earnings - S&P is trading at 23 times 2025 earnings [5] - Very moderate expectations for Q2, with about 4.9% expected earning growth [6] - The market is in a bull market and is expected to hit new highs [6][7] Investment Strategy & Market Sentiment - Large institutions are still a little bit underinvested [4] - The technology theme is working again [4] - Investors need to sit on their hands and not knee-jerk if they get some bad news [9]

Market Reaction - Stock futures on Wall Street experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 453 points (1.05%) to 42,863, S&P 500 dropping 57.50 points (0.95%) to 5,992, and Nasdaq futures declining 273.50 points (1.23%) to 21,885 [1][7] - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude increasing over 7% to $74.28 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions due to escalating violence in the Middle East [3][14] Geopolitical Developments - Israeli airstrikes targeted senior military figures and nuclear facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several high-ranking officials, including military chief Mohammad Hossein Bagheri and Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami [3][4] - Iran retaliated by launching around 100 drones toward Israel, escalating tensions further [4] Investor Sentiment - Investors sought safety amid the turmoil, leading to a rise in US Treasury bonds, with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.369% [5] - The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.53% to 95.15, indicating renewed demand for the US dollar, while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 21, reflecting increased investor anxiety [6] Broader Market Impact - Gold prices reached a near two-month high, while auto stocks faced pressure following comments from former President Trump regarding potential import levies [8] - European and Asian stock markets also declined, contributing to a souring market mood [9] International Response - The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran's Isfahan nuclear site was unaffected by the strikes, with no increases in radiation levels detected at the Natanz site [9] - UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for restraint from both Iran and Israel, emphasizing the need to avoid further conflict in the region [12][13]