In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy. Traders Go Full Bull as Brent Defies Oversupply Worries - Defying expectations for a year of enormous oversupply, oil prices have had their strongest start to ...

On February 19, President Trump put Iran on a 10-15 day ultimatum with the Geneva negotiations on Thursday marking the likely deadline after which military action could take place if no agreement is reached. The White House has stated that it is “very wise” for Iran to reach an agreement, while Vice President Vance has already accused Iran of not addressing the core issues raised by the U.S., indicating that there are still major differences between the two countries as they enter Thursday’s meeting – leavi ...

Key Takeaways Brent and WTI rebound to six-month highs amid U.S.-Iran tensions and supply concerns.Sasol Limited is seeing earnings estimate upgrades and projects 4.3% growth next year.National Energy Services Reunited forecasts 87.8% earnings growth for the current year.Global oil prices have started the year with a mix of moderate gains and persistent volatility, deeply influenced by geopolitical tensions and underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. Both Brent crude, the global benchmark, and West Texas Int ...

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing a decline, marking the second consecutive weekly loss as fears of U.S.-Iran escalation diminish [1] - Brent crude is trading at $67.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is at $62.66 per barrel, both down from earlier highs [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is reportedly seeking more time to finalize a nuclear deal with Iran, which has reduced the near-term geopolitical risk premium and pressured oil prices [2] - OPEC's report maintains demand growth projections at 1.38 million barrels daily for this year and 1.34 million barrels daily for 2027, despite a production drop of 439,000 barrels daily last month due to disruptions in Kazakhstan [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in oil inventories to 8.53 million barrels and production to 498,000 barrels daily, which the market largely ignored [3] Demand and Supply Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its demand growth predictions to 850,000 barrels daily from a previous estimate of 930,000 barrels daily, contributing to a 3% decline in oil prices [5] - The IEA also forecasts a surplus in the oil market by 2026, with supply expected to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day to 108.6 million barrels per day, evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers [6] - Last month, global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day due to severe winter weather affecting North American operations and the decline in Kazakhstan production [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing a second weekly decline due to reduced concerns over a potential conflict with Iran and forecasts indicating that supply will exceed demand this year [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures increased by 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $67.55 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 1 cent, or 0.02%, to $62.85 after previous declines of 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [1] - Brent prices are projected to drop by 0.8% this week, while WTI is expected to fall by 1.1% [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Concerns regarding a U.S. attack on Iran over its nuclear program had initially driven prices higher, but comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a potential deal with Iran led to a decrease in prices [1] - The reduction in geopolitical risk is attributed to the U.S. seeking more time to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand growth for this year will be weaker than previously expected, with supply anticipated to exceed demand [1] - A significant increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and expectations of rising Venezuelan oil supply, projected to increase from 880,000 barrels per day to about 1.2 million barrels per day, contributed to the decline in prices [1] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue more allowances easing sanctions on Venezuelan energy, which could further impact supply dynamics [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the Brent crude oil market, and discusses the recent price movements and forecasts for 2026 and beyond [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Rally**: Oil prices have increased significantly in early 2026, driven by supply disruptions, strong demand from China, currency weakness, and geopolitical risks. Brent prices reached $72.7 per barrel at the end of January 2026, contrary to earlier expectations of a decline into the high $50s [9][10]. 2. **Geopolitical Risk Premium**: A geopolitical risk premium of $6-7 per barrel is currently embedded in oil prices, influenced by tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran [3][39][42]. 3. **Supply Disruptions**: Key supply disruptions occurred in Kazakhstan, the US, and Venezuela, tightening physical balances in January. These disruptions are expected to be temporary, with a return to normal production levels anticipated soon [15][19]. 4. **Chinese Demand**: China has been actively stockpiling crude oil, with an estimated 2.3 million barrels per day in December 2025, which has helped absorb surplus oil and mitigate downward pressure on prices [31][33]. 5. **Currency Concerns**: Ongoing fiscal deficits in the US and Europe are raising concerns about monetary debasement and inflation, leading investors to seek traditional hedges like oil and gold [27][30]. 6. **Forecast Adjustments**: Near-term Brent price forecasts have been raised to $62.5 for Q1 2026 and $57.5 for Q2 2026, while maintaining a long-term outlook of prices trending below $60 per barrel later in the year [5][54]. Additional Important Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that while current price increases are notable, they do not fundamentally alter the long-term outlook for oil prices, which are expected to trend downwards due to rising inventories in key pricing locations [12][48]. 2. **Historical Context**: The report provides historical context for oil price movements during geopolitical tensions, illustrating how past events have influenced market reactions and price spikes [39]. 3. **Inventory Projections**: Global crude inventories are projected to increase by approximately 730 million barrels in 2026, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries and oil-in-transit [51][52]. 4. **Refinery Operations**: The report notes that refinery runs and operations are expected to stabilize, with some regions experiencing outages that could impact supply dynamics [128]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts. Stocks tracking, interactive charts, and market insights, all in your hands.Stay connected, stay informed. Download the CNBC app today. It's Monday morning everybody.I hope you had a restful weekend. Welcome to Schoolbox Europe. I'm Steve Sedwick with Karen Cho and Ben Bulos.And these are your headlines. Commodities continue to fall aggressively. Gold and silver prices extending big losses from last week after thei ...

Core Insights - The maritime conflict between the United States and Venezuela has intensified, particularly following the U.S. seizure of the Skipper oil tanker, leading to increased oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums in the market [1][2][3] Oil Market Impact - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude rising 2.7% to over $62 per barrel due to U.S. military operations targeting Venezuelan oil tankers, which has added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices [3][6] - The U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, estimated to affect 600,000 barrels per day, is expected to create supply disruptions, despite Venezuelan crude accounting for only about 1% of global supply [8][6] ETF Opportunities - The current geopolitical tensions present a strong catalyst for oil-focused Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which are sensitive to supply-side shocks and have seen price increases in response to rising oil prices [4][5] - Specific ETFs to watch include: - ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO), which targets 2x daily returns of oil futures and has gained 4.3% since Dec. 19, 2025 [12] - ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF (OILK), which has gained 2.2% since Dec. 19, 2025 [13] - United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO), which has gained 2.4% since Dec. 19, 2025 [14] - Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), which has gained 1% since Dec. 19, 2025 and has significant exposure to major U.S. oil companies [15][16] - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which has also risen 1% since Dec. 19, 2025 and focuses on companies in the oil and gas sector [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of potential Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations on crude and refined product prices. Core Insights and Arguments - **Crude Price Decline**: Brent crude prices have decreased by 5% to $62 per barrel as the market reassesses the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal [1][2] - **Downside Risks**: There are estimated downside risks of $4-5 to Brent/WTI price forecasts for 2026 due to a potential peace deal, which could lead to a gradual recovery in Russian production and increased oil inventories in OECD pricing centers [1][5] - **Refined Product Prices**: A stronger immediate decline in refined product prices is expected due to: 1. A 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) decline in Russian refined product exports since March 2022, while crude exports have remained stable [1][15] 2. Higher geopolitical risk premiums currently priced into product margins compared to crude prices [1][21] 3. Potential normalization of freight rates if voyage journeys shorten [1][23] - **European Diesel Margins**: European diesel margins have dropped nearly 25% to $28 per barrel, reflecting the market's reaction to renewed peace talks [2] Additional Important Insights - **Production Forecasts**: The base case assumes that sanctions on Russia's oil sector will persist, leading to a decline in Russian liquids production to 9.0 mb/d by the end of 2027 from 10.1 mb/d in Q4 2025 [3] - **Gradual Recovery**: Even with the removal of sanctions, a gradual recovery in Russian oil production is expected due to structural issues such as technological and operational bottlenecks [6] - **Oil on Water**: The volume of Russian crude on water has increased by approximately 80 million barrels since the start of the war, which could lead to a reduction in prices if sanctions are lifted [7][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing conflict has tightened refined product markets more than crude markets, with significant declines in diesel and gasoil exports following EU sanctions [18] - **Risk Premiums**: A $7 per barrel premium for European gasoil/diesel margins over Brent is attributed to risks associated with Russia [22] - **Freight Rates**: Sanctions have shifted Russian oil flows from West to East, increasing tanker freight rates by around $3 per barrel since the war began [23] Recommendations - Investors are advised to short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent timespread and for oil producers to hedge against 2026 price downside, while consumers should hedge against price increases expected from 2028 [27][28]

Group 1 - Crude oil futures have declined for three consecutive sessions, primarily due to increased OPEC production overshadowing concerns about potential Russian supply losses from U.S. sanctions [1] - A potential trade agreement between the U.S. and China is contributing to a decrease in geopolitical risk, which may lead to further tariff reductions [2] - U.S. inventory data expected to show a slight weekly decline in crude oil stockpiles, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts [2]