Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenues for Q2 2025 reached RMB630 million, with income from operations increasing by 20.2% year over year and non-GAAP net income surging 78.2% year over year to RMB189 million [6][20] - For the first half of 2025, total net revenues were RMB1.2 billion, generating non-GAAP net income of RMB358 million, a 33.9% year over year increase [20][28] - Total transaction values reached RMB17 billion, reflecting a 17.7% year over year increase [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenues from overseas reached RMB297 million in Q2, accounting for 47.1% of total net revenue, with overseas investment products continuing to grow [9][10] - Net revenues from domestic insurance decreased by 38.7% year over year to RMB716 million due to a strategic decision to reduce promotion of domestic insurance products [15] - Net revenues from domestic public securities increased by 12.8% year over year to RMB132 million, driven by a rebound in the Asian market [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overseas AUA grew 6.6% year over year to USD9.1 billion, accounting for 27.6% of total AUA, primarily driven by increased distribution of private equity funds [10][26] - Transaction value of USD-denominated private market products increased by 70.3% year over year to USD765 million [11] - The number of registered overseas clients exceeded 18,900, a year over year increase of 13% [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on high net worth clients and expand into mature financial markets such as the U.S., Canada, and Japan [15][16] - Plans to enhance global product offerings and explore new opportunities in digital assets, including a partnership with Coinbase for a stablecoin yield fund [17][18] - Commitment to integrating AI across operations to improve client experience and reduce operational costs [18] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong investment returns for clients, with over 95% of Black Card clients realizing cumulative gains by the end of the quarter [5] - The company remains cautious about costs, achieving a 35.8% year over year increase in operating profit [24] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong performance and returning profits to shareholders [29] Other Important Information - The company has cumulatively returned over RMB1.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past three years [29] - The balance sheet remains sound, with combined cash and short-term investments totaling RMB5.4 billion and zero interest-bearing liabilities [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on private credit digital yield and client interest in cryptocurrency - Management highlighted the launch of a stablecoin yield fund in partnership with Coinbase, emphasizing the importance of compliance and client education on new asset classes [31][34][38] Question: Observations on investment sentiment and transaction volume trends - Management noted a strong interest from clients in diverse investment products, driven by improved market conditions and a focus on long-term returns [42][44] Question: Progress on overseas expansion and its impact on operating expenses - Management discussed ongoing efforts to establish a presence in the U.S., Canada, and Japan, with a focus on branding and serving Chinese clients globally [46][48][50] Question: Changes in operating expenses and future dividend plans - Management explained that decreased operating expenses were due to strategic investments and expressed confidence in maintaining strong performance and returning profits to shareholders [55][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US equities and core fixed income, while being Neutral on global stocks and Underweight (UW) on commodities [6][40]. Core Insights - The global economy is expanding but at a slower pace, with the US expected to achieve approximately 1% growth year-over-year. Despite policy uncertainties, US assets are projected to outperform those in the rest of the world (RoW) [40][42]. - A weaker US dollar is anticipated due to converging US rates and growth with peers, alongside increased currency hedging flows benefiting safe-haven currencies like EUR, JPY, and CHF [9][42][91]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US equities over RoW, with a constructive outlook on core fixed income [40][42][91]. Cross-Asset Strategy - The report suggests a strong regional preference for US assets across various classes, recommending an Overweight in US equities and core fixed income while being Neutral on global equities [6][40]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with a forecasted 10-year yield of 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. Global Equities - US stocks are projected to benefit from earnings revisions and a weaker dollar, with the S&P 500 target set at 6,500 by 2Q26 [7][38]. - The report anticipates that trade tensions will de-escalate, reducing recession risks and supporting equity valuations [50][91]. G10 Rates - The report forecasts a steeper yield curve in the US, UK, and euro area, while Japan's curve is expected to flatten. The anticipated 10-year UST yield is 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. FX Outlook - The USD is expected to weaken by approximately 10% by the end of 2026, with EUR/USD projected at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by 2Q26 [9][52][91]. EM Fixed Income - Emerging Market (EM) fixed income is expected to yield benign and positive returns, driven by mild inflation and lower UST yields. Specific countries like Brazil, Turkey, and India are highlighted for local rates, while Colombia and Morocco are noted for credit [10][40]. Corporate Credit - High-quality credit is viewed as attractive, particularly in the US, with spreads for US Investment Grade (IG) expected at 90 basis points and High Yield (HY) at 335 basis points by 2Q26 [11][40]. Commodities - The report indicates risks in the commodities market, particularly for Brent prices, while gold is expected to remain elevated. Brent is forecasted at $55 per barrel and gold at $3,250 per ounce by 2Q26 [13][40].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities analyzes the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, attributing it to factors such as weak auction demand, rising interest rates, and investor sell-offs, exacerbated by high leverage strategies in the U.S. financial market [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Analysis - The fundamental cause of the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is the accumulation of long-term risks in the U.S. economy, including significant fiscal expansion post-pandemic and high policy interest rates [3] - The proportion of stable funds in the U.S. Treasury market has decreased, amplifying market volatility risks and increasing selling pressure due to a declining recognition of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset [3] - The liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has sharply declined since early April, although there has been some recent easing, indicating ongoing risks [3] Group 2: Global Market Implications - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase pricing pressure in global sovereign debt markets and accelerate the diversification of reserve assets among countries [3] - The fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields may lead to a re-pricing in global sovereign debt markets, higher corporate borrowing costs, and heightened panic in global financial markets [3] Group 3: Impact on China - Short-term increases in U.S. Treasury yields may negatively affect the Chinese stock market, but there could be a turnaround in the medium to long term [4] - The short-term impact of U.S. Treasury yield volatility on the Chinese bond market is limited, with expectations of stable performance in the medium to long term [4] - The weakening of U.S. dollar credit and limited domestic capital outflow pressure may support the renminbi exchange rate, with long-term benefits for the internationalization of the renminbi [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year net revenues were RMB 22.6 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 21.1%, primarily due to decreases in distribution of domestic and overseas insurance products as well as recurring service fees from domestic private equity products [13] - Non-GAAP net income for the year fell 46% to RMB 550 million, mainly due to upfront restructuring costs and an increased effective tax rate of 31.5% [13][14] - Total net revenue for the fourth quarter was RMB 652 million, down 18.5% year over year and 4.6% sequentially [45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic net revenues from Mainland China totaled RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 27.5% [32] - Net revenues from domestic public securities were RMB 487 million in 2024, with a 35% decrease in the aggregate value of RMB public securities products distributed [32][33] - Net revenues from overseas wealth management through Arc for 2024 were RMB 675 million, with overseas investment products showing significant growth [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenues from overseas in 2024 were RMB 1.3 billion, accounting for 48% of total net revenues, up from 44% last year [21] - Overseas AUM reached USD 5.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 15.1%, accounting for 28.1% of total AUM [28] - The number of overseas relationship managers increased to 138, up 55.1% from last year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas presence while managing risks effectively, targeting both mainland China and international markets [12] - A commission-only agent model for insurance businesses has been launched, with plans to grow the team to approximately 150 agents by the end of 2025 [30][31] - The company aims to grow overseas AUA to USD 20 billion over the next three to five years [35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2024 was a year of challenges due to subdued client sentiments but also an opportunity for necessary organizational restructuring [8][10] - The company expects to see revenue and profitability recovering in the future as it ramps up its overseas business and domestic market recovery [58] - Management emphasized the importance of global asset allocation and the need to adapt to changing market conditions [66][95] Other Important Information - The board approved an annual and special dividend totaling RMB 550 million, equivalent to 100% of the non-GAAP net income for the year [40][57] - The company has repurchased over 600,000 ADSs, equivalent to 0.9% of total issued shares [57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand for investment products and CRO's current investment strategy - Management noted that investment sentiment among Chinese high-net-worth clients has been rebounding, with liquidity being a major consideration for clients [65][67] Question: Overseas business growth and main sources of revenue - The US is being developed as a key booking center, with ongoing recruitment of top-tier talent to enhance competitiveness [74][76] Question: First quarter trends and revenue expectations for 2025 - Management expects a stabilization and potential recovery in 2025, driven by improved client sentiment and strategic asset allocation [90][95] Question: Decline in overseas relationship managers and headcount outlook - The decline was attributed to year-end evaluations, with plans to continue hiring and improving the sales team structure [98][100]