This time is different. These are the four most dangerous words in investing. But let's be honest, most of us think that this time is different when it comes to crypto, at least, even if we refuse to say it out loud.But what if I told you it actually might be, and that it could be even more bullish. You see, some have noticed that the crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, which appears to be extending into 2026. This suggests that the crypto bull market could also extend into next year ...

Market Overview - The market has transitioned from merely observing interest rates to a full liquidity regime, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows are the primary drivers of risk rather than the Federal Reserve's rate adjustments [1] - Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging are the main forces driving gold prices higher, indicating a shift beyond traditional inflation-hedge frameworks [2] Predictions and Trends - Prediction markets indicate a steady but shallow easing cycle from the Fed, favoring gold and digital assets over high-beta risks, with a 76% chance of three rate cuts in 2025 totaling 75 basis points [3] - Kalshi traders assign a 51% probability that Bitcoin will break $130,000 this year, with lower probabilities for $140,000 and $150,000 [4] Market Positioning - The market is preparing for a slow-burn rally rather than a speculative surge, as easing expectations gradually influence real yields and dollar liquidity [5] - On-chain signals suggest a liquidity-fed advance rather than an adrenaline-driven bull market, indicating potential for continued asset appreciation without aggressive Fed intervention [6] Current Market Movement - Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, influenced by U.S.–China trade tensions and global risk concerns, with analysts warning that breaching the $110,000 support could lead to a drop towards $96,500–$100,000 [7] - Ethereum is trading around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macro uncertainty, although some remain optimistic about its potential to "catch up" to gold over time [7]

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Market Sentiment and Analysis - The crypto market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with concerns about a potential alt season, market topping, or the start of a bear market [1][2][3] - The market is showing signs of capitulation, with fear levels approaching extreme levels, which historically can indicate a market bottom [6][7][8] - Many altcoins are in oversold territory, aligning with the high fear levels in the market [9][10] - XRP is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum, but could still see further price declines [3][4][10] - The market has been selling off for approximately 72 days, leading to time and price action capitulation [11][12] Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests the four-year crypto cycle may be extending to a five-year cycle, with a potential peak in early 2026 [13][19][20] - This aligns with the liquidity cycle, which is expected to peak around the first quarter of 2026 [16][17][29] - The market has changed significantly with institutional adoption, regulations, and the potential for altcoin ETFs [30][31][39] - Despite these changes, a bear market is still anticipated, likely marking the last typical cycle before utility becomes the primary driver [36] - The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and increasing adoption are expected to drive further market expansion [35][38]

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Market Trends - Some are calling the end of the bull market, but global liquidity sits at all-time high [1] - Nasdaq seeks tokenized stocks [2] Cryptocurrency & Blockchain - Hyperliquid USDH bidding war is ongoing [1][2] - Justin Sun's $100 million+ in WLFI frozen [1] - MegaETH stablecoin is being developed [2] - Ronin and Upbeat join OP Stack L2 [2] Regulatory & Legal - Gary Gensler's suspicious deleted texts are under scrutiny [1][2] - Senate Clarity Act is being discussed [2] Company Specific - Robinhood joins S&P 500 [2] - Robinhood social features are being implemented [2]

Market Overview & Outlook - The market is currently experiencing an upward trend, with many projects showing significant gains [2][3] - The author believes that almost everyone is wrong about what's about to happen in the market, and it's going to happen in a very short amount of time [2] - The author anticipates a surge in the crypto market, driven by factors such as the Fed's actions and increased institutional adoption [1][7] - The author expects the S&P 500 to reach $7,000 by the end of the year [9] Altcoin Season & Dominance - Altcoin season is building behind the scenes, with the altcoin season index recently spiking from 50 to 64 [32][33] - Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance are currently selling off, indicating a potential shift towards altcoins [33][38] - Others dominance (dominance outside of the top 10) is starting to push higher, suggesting that altcoins could soon wake up in a much larger way [38] XRP Analysis - The author believes that XRP has the potential to jump by 5x from its current price, possibly reaching $15 [6][7] - The author notes that XRP is about to break back to $3 plus [5] - The author suggests that once XRP clears the $0.38 zone, it will go crazy, with the next level being $3.32 [31] Macroeconomic Factors - Global broad money supply rose 9.3% year-over-year in July to a record $140 trillion [19] - Since the beginning of the year, money supply in US dollars has jumped by $10 trillion [20] - Global liquidity is surging, which is expected to push markets significantly higher [21] - The Fed is expected to cut rates, which will further flood the system with fresh liquidity [23][24] Dollar & Market Top - The author believes that the dollar has been extremely oversold and expects it to spike back up [10] - The author suggests that the market will most likely top out for crypto when the dollar starts to break 104 [14] - The author estimates that the market could top out sometime around January or February of 2026 [15] Crypto Market Targets - The author believes that the total crypto market cap could break back to $5 trillion plus dollars [17] - The author's main target for this cycle is $5 to $7 trillion, but there's a possibility it could hit $10 trillion [17][18] - The author thinks that Bitcoin can hit $150,000 - $160,000, which could lead to Ethereum reaching $10,000 plus and XRP reaching $10, $15, possibly even $20 [41]

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