11 August 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker - Still Waiting On Peak Clarity Post Tariff Implementations US Tariff Impact Tracker – Laden vessels from China to USA dropped sequentially by 4% and were down 19% on YoY basis. We think the generally soft pattern could persist through mid-August based on Port of LA data. Ramifications from the recent tariff related implementations and magnitudes have yet to play out -but the next few weeks could be telling in terms of shipper rea ...

Economic Overview - China's economy remained stable despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Trade War Impact - Manufacturers are actively adjusting to the trade war, which poses a threat to global supply chains [1] Future Outlook - The report seeks to explore the future implications of the trade war [1]

President Donald Trump says he has reached a trade deal with Vietnam following weeks of intense diplomacy between the two countries. This comes ahead of the July 9 deadline that would have seen much higher tariffs imposed on Vietnam's exports to the US. Under the deal, a 20% tariff will be placed on Vietnamese exports to the US with a 40% levy on any goods deemed to be trans shipped, meaning goods with components from other countries that are then rooted through Vietnam.That measure is likely directed at Ch ...

Let's talk about another economic side of the story and that is risk that is insurance because insurers everywhere are no doubt trying to figure out how to price in risk that exists and risk that may exist or may not in 3 6 12 months. Contessa Bur covers insurers here for us at CNBC and joins us now with this side of the story. So, Brian Morgan, what I heard from the head of aviation and marine for Lloyd's Market Association told me that ships already are notifying their insurers of their planned transit th ...

Will we see a walk back in restrictions over semiconductors and their access into China. I think we will. And I think there will be, you know, a move from these kind of broad based numerical sanctions and and terror figures to something that's more pointed and targeted.And we've seen already those levers being pulled on both sides. Obviously, the, you know, the U.S. imposing the export restrictions on the H-20 chips that could impact a four and a half billion dollars of sales of any video. The Chinese obvio ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation industry but discusses trends and potential impacts of tariffs on trade flows, indicating a cautious outlook for the sector. Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are leading to a significant decline in freight flows from China to the US, with a reported drop of 22% year-over-year in laden container vessels [4][9][14]. - There is a bifurcation in trends, with concerns about product availability if the trade war continues, particularly as the second half of the year approaches [4]. - The report highlights the potential for a freight air pocket in the second quarter, which could affect inventory levels and order spikes in the second half of 2025 [5][8]. Summary by Sections Trade Flow Trends - Freight flows from China to the US have decreased by 22% year-over-year, with a sequential drop of approximately 21% in the most recent week [4][9]. - Expected TEU imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to drop for a third consecutive week, although a sharp spike is anticipated in the following weeks, possibly indicating a shift in trade patterns [4][30]. Inventory and Demand - The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) indicates an expansion in inventory costs, suggesting that goods are not moving as expected, which could lead to empty shelves if the situation persists [4][57]. - There are two main questions being monitored: the potential for empty shelves and whether there will be a spike in orders in the second half of the year, which depends on consumer resilience and the severity of the freight air pocket [4][5]. Future Scenarios - The report outlines three potential scenarios for 2025: continued pull forward leading to inventory build followed by a sharp fall in demand, a stall in pull forward creating an air pocket for volumes, or a scenario where the economy does not fall into recession, leading to a surge in orders [8]. - UPS anticipates a decline of up to 25% in China to US business as the second quarter progresses, while trade from China to the rest of the world is expected to pick up some of the slack [5][8]. Container Rates and Shipping Activity - Ocean container rates from China to the US West Coast have increased by 3% week-over-week but are down 38% year-over-year, indicating a lack of recovery in shipping rates [27]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles have decreased by 32% year-over-year, with forecasts showing a potential increase as trade shifts from China to other regions [30][32].