March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed up +0.04 (+0.27%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +0.80 (+0.19%). Sugar prices settled higher on Monday as they continue to consolidate below last Wednesday's 1-month highs.  Sugar is supported by the recent news that India's food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.07 (-0.47%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +2.10 (+0.50%). Sugar prices today are mixed.  Prices have negative carryover from Monday when the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  In August, ISO had previously forecast a 231,000 MT d ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.12 (+0.85%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up +1.50 (+0.36%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher as strength in the Brazilian real sparked short covering in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 4-week high against the dollar today, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart This latest month-long selloff in sugar knocked NY sugar prices to a 5-year nearest-fut ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.11 (+0.77%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +1.70 (+0.41%) [1] - Sugar prices rebounded after initial losses due to a stronger Brazilian real, which reached a 2.5-week high against the dollar, leading to mild fund short covering in sugar futures [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.17% from 47.73% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through September increased by +0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Projections indicate Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 million tons for the same period [3] Group 4: Indian Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - Sugar trader Sucden indicated that India may divert only 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined significantly, with NY sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low [1] - The decline in sugar prices is attributed to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2][3] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil rose to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 in Brazil through September increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Projections indicate that Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] - Covrig Analytics estimates a smaller global sugar surplus of 4.1 million tons for the same period [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's monsoon rainfall has been 8% above normal, leading to expectations of a bumper sugar crop [4] - Projections suggest India's sugar production for 2025/26 will increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, due to a surplus [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are mixed, with NY sugar up by 0.25% and London sugar down by 0.27% as they consolidate recent losses [1] - NY sugar fell to a 3-week low and London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, influenced by expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar reached a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with cumulative 2025-26 output rising by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery from early losses, influenced by a weaker dollar and short covering in futures markets [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, with projected surpluses impacting price levels [2][4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.25 (+1.60%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +3.30 (+0.74%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 3-week low earlier in the day, and London sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Dynamics - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT through mid-September [3] India’s Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for sugar crop production [4] Export and Ethanol Production Factors - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus [5] - Indian sugar mills are expected to export up to 4 MMT of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have experienced a significant decline, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.04% and December London ICE white sugar down 1.59%, reaching a two-week low due to a projected global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [1] Group 1: Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 MMT, contributing to bearish market sentiment [3] - The sugar content in Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crushed in the first half of September fell to 154.58 kg/ton, down from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating lower sugar quality [2] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-September decreased by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [3] Group 2: India Sugar Production and Exports - India's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline of 17.5% in the previous season [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal and the strongest in five years, potentially leading to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] - Brazil's sugar production has increased, contributing to bearish market sentiment [4][6] - India's favorable monsoon conditions are expected to boost sugar production, further pressuring prices [5][6] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.35 (-2.08%), and December London ICE white sugar 5 is down -9.40 (-2.02%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content in Brazil's sugarcane [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increased to 53.49% from 47.74% year-on-year [4] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% y/y to 34.9 million tons due to larger planted cane acreage [6] - This follows a significant decline of -17.5% y/y in 2024/25, resulting in a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon season [5]