March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.31 (+2.24%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) closed up +5.40 (+1.34%). Sugar prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with NY sugar posting a 1-week high.  Signs of smaller sugar output in Brazil lifted prices on Wednesday after Unica reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South in the second half of January fell by -36% y/y to only 5,000 MT.  However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through January is up by +0.9% y/y to ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.27 (+1.95%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up +4.90 (+1.22%). Sugar prices are climbing today, with NY sugar posting a 1-week high.  Signs of smaller sugar output in Brazil are lifting prices today after Unica reported that sugar production in the Center-South in the second half of January fell -36% y/y to only 5,000 MT.  However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through January rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.240 MMT.  Also, the ratio of ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.23 (-1.60%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -7.30 (-1.80%). Sugar prices retreated on Tuesday, with London sugar falling to a 5-year nearest-futures low.  Sugar prices have been in a gradual decline over the past three months, with NY sugar falling to a 3-month low last Friday and London sugar slumping to a 5-year nearest-futures low Tuesday, amid continued concerns about global sugar surpluses.  Last Friday, Unica reporte ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing a decline due to expectations of global surpluses, with NY sugar reaching a 3-month low and London sugar hitting a 5-year low [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.16 (-1.12%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -3.50 (-0.86%) [1]. - Sugar prices have been on a gradual decline over the past three months, influenced by the outlook for global sugar surpluses [2]. Group 2: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [3]. - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT, projecting a decrease to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [6]. Group 3: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.236 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.78% [2]. - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is up +22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply gluts, with a quota system introduced in 2022/23 [5]. - The food ministry in India announced that mills would be allowed to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [5].

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of global surpluses and increased production, with specific forecasts indicating significant surpluses for the upcoming years [1][5]. Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Green Pool Commodity Specialists project a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season and a surplus of 156,000 metric tons for 2026/27 [1]. - Covrig Analytics has raised its estimate for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, but anticipates a decrease to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [5]. - Brazil's Conab has increased its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, contributing to the bearish outlook for prices [6]. Group 2: Regional Sugar Production Updates - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through December has risen by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 50.82% from 48.16% [2]. - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is reported to be up 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Export Policies and Market Impact - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [4]. - The reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may enhance the country's capacity to boost sugar exports [3].

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of global surpluses and increased production, with New York sugar reaching a 1.5-week low and London sugar hitting a 2.5-month low [1] Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Green Pool Commodity Specialists project a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 and 156,000 metric tons for 2026/27 [1] - Covrig Analytics has raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October, but expects the surplus to decrease to 1.4 MMT in 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [5] - Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, increased its sugar production estimate for Brazil in 2025/26 to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [6] Group 2: Regional Sugar Production Updates - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through December increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.82% in 2025/26 from 48.16% in 2024/25 [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is up 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase year-on-year [3] Group 3: Export Policies and Market Impact - India's government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season already announced [4] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may facilitate an increase in sugar exports [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed movements due to various factors including production increases in Brazil and India, as well as currency fluctuations affecting export dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil has risen to 50.82% for the 2025/26 season, up from 48.16% in the previous season [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate for 2025/26 raised to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been increased to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT [6] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The Brazilian real has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a 1.5-month high, which discourages export sales from Brazilian sugar producers [1] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Covrig Analytics has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT, but projects a decline in surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil and stronger production in India is bearish for sugar prices [6]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.37 (+2.54%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 9.90 (+2.37%) due to fund short covering ahead of a three-day weekend in the US [1] - On Thursday, NY sugar fell to a one-month low and London sugar dropped to a two-month low, influenced by increased sugar production in India [2] Production Insights - India's sugar production for 2025-26 is projected to rise to 15.9 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to January 15, marking a 21% year-on-year increase [2] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-December increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [3] Global Supply Outlook - Covrig Analytics has raised its estimate for the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October, but projects a decrease in the surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [4] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, while reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially boosting sugar exports [5] Export Dynamics - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced in 2022/23 after late rains affected production [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased slightly, with March NY world sugar closing up by 0.27% and March London ICE white sugar up by 0.19, indicating a consolidation phase below recent highs [1][2] Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, potentially reducing sugar supplies [2] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after production issues [3] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, a shift from a deficit of 2.916 MMT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [4] Price Pressures - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and NY sugar markets due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, contributing to bearish price sentiment [6] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year-on-year, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with a forecasted surplus in 2025-26 impacting market dynamics [2][5] - Increased sugar production in key countries like India, Thailand, and Pakistan is driving the surplus [2] - Short covering in the market is observed due to potential changes in India's ethanol pricing policy [3] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down by 0.07 (-0.47%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 2.10 (+0.50%) [1] - Sugar prices rallied to three-week highs due to tighter supplies from India, with export quotas being reduced [4] Supply Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit [2] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [2] Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025-26 has been raised to 45 million MT, contributing to bearish price outlooks [6] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 16.4% year-on-year in the second half of October [6] Market Sentiment - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with significant lows recorded recently [5] - Sugar trader Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025-26 to 8.7 million MT [5]