We are optimistic about ASMPT's growth potential in TCB tools, supported by growing adoptions in HBM and logic advanced packaging. The migration from HBM3E to HBM4 will drive further applications of ASMPT's TCB tools, with higher requirements for pitch size and accuracy. ASMPT has been engaging with customers regarding TCB for HBM4 manufacturing. Meanwhile, although the company's Book-to-Bill ratio for semiconductor segments remains below 1.0, we see more positive signs, including increasing capex from Chin ...

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Industry Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) - **Region**: Japan - **Outlook**: Attractive [1] Key Points Market Performance and Valuations - The stock price performance of major companies in the SPE industry shows varied results, with Disco outperforming the market significantly [3][60]. - Valuations for companies such as Disco, Advantest, and SCREEN Holdings indicate potential returns of 55.1%, -10.4%, and 18.5% respectively [5]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - **Disco**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 70,300, Current Price JPY 45,320 - **KOKUSAI ELECTRIC**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 3,600, Current Price JPY 3,755 - **Ulvac**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 6,400, Current Price JPY 6,456 - **Advantest**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 12,400, Current Price JPY 13,845 - **Lasertec**: Underweight, Price Target JPY 10,400, Current Price JPY 16,720 - **Ushio**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 2,200, Current Price JPY 2,239 - **Nikon**: Underweight, Price Target JPY 1,000, Current Price JPY 1,739 - **SCREEN Holdings**: Overweight, Price Target JPY 15,200, Current Price JPY 12,830 - **Tokyo Electron**: Equal-weight, Price Target JPY 23,700, Current Price JPY 24,250 [5]. Industry Drivers - The demand for advanced packaging and high bandwidth memory (HBM) is driving growth in the SPE sector. - Significant investments in semiconductor manufacturing are being made, particularly in response to AI-related demands [21][24]. - The introduction of new technologies such as Panel Level Packaging (PLP) is expected to enhance production efficiency [18]. Market Trends - The NAND market is projected to experience a shift into shortage by the second half of 2026 due to increased AI demand, despite current pricing reflecting weaker consumer demand [44]. - The adoption of eSSD (enterprise SSD) is accelerating, with projections indicating that AI-related NAND shipments will reach 431 exabytes by 2029 [44]. Risks and Challenges - Ongoing restrictions on semiconductor exports to China pose risks to the industry, necessitating a reduction in dependence on Chinese manufacturing capabilities [24]. - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges related to supply chain constraints and fluctuating demand across different segments [21]. Future Outlook - The SPE market is expected to continue growing, with revenue forecasts indicating an increase from $117.171 billion in 2025 to $130.989 billion by 2027 [42]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at advanced packaging and HBM technologies, which will be crucial for meeting the demands of AI applications [73]. Conclusion The Semiconductor Production Equipment industry in Japan is positioned for growth, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand from AI applications. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market fluctuations to capitalize on these opportunities.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, revenues were $171.4 million, a decrease of 9.6% from Q4 and an increase of 1.6% year-over-year [16] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q1 was 39.2%, down from 40.2% in Q4 [18][19] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q1 was $0.23, down from $0.27 in Q4 [23] - GAAP net income for Q1 was $6.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $9.7 million, or $0.12 per diluted share in Q4 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Probe card segment revenues were $136.5 million in Q1, a decrease of 9.2% from Q4, driven by lower DRAM and Flash revenues [17] - Foundry and Logic revenues increased to $85 million in Q1, a 2.4% increase from Q4, comprising 49.8% of total revenues [17] - DRAM revenues were $48.9 million in Q1, down 22.8% from Q4, representing 28.5% of total revenues [17] - Systems segment revenues were $34.8 million in Q1, a decrease from Q4, but expected to see moderate growth in Q2 [12][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates double-digit sequential revenue growth in Q2, driven by demand from hyperscalers and investments in generative AI [5] - HBM probe card demand is expected to increase due to ongoing shipments for existing HBM3E designs and new HBM4 designs [8][10] - The company has seen a reduction in revenue from China due to tariffs and export controls, validating its decision to divest operations in that region [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying its customer base and product offerings, particularly in HBM and advanced packaging [39] - A recent acquisition of FICT Limited enhances the company's access to multilayer organic substrates, crucial for advanced foundry and logic probe cards [11] - The company aims to achieve a target model of $2 non-GAAP EPS on $850 million of revenue, with a gross margin target of 47% [15][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current geopolitical and tariff environment creates uncertainty, impacting revenue and gross margins [5][6] - The company is taking a cautious approach to capital investments while evaluating the evolving tariff situation [24] - Management expressed optimism about the growth potential in the second half of 2025, particularly in the foundry and logic markets [63] Other Important Information - The company generated free cash flow of $6.3 million in Q1, down from $28.8 million in Q4, primarily due to lower profitability [23] - The company has initiated a new $75 million share repurchase program after fully utilizing the previous program [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on revenue and margins - Management confirmed an estimated mid single-digit million dollar reduction in revenues due to tariffs, particularly affecting multinational customers in China [30][31] Question: Customer dynamics and revenue contributions - Management noted a return of a key customer to the top sales list, indicating increased activity in the client PC space and a focus on regaining competitive position [36][37] Question: DRAM business outlook - All projected growth in DRAM is expected to come from HBM, with steady demand in non-HBM applications [42] Question: Co-package optics and its impact - Management highlighted the potential for co-package optics to drive growth in both systems and probe card businesses, emphasizing the importance of collaboration with customers [65][86] Question: Advanced probe cards for GPUs - The company is making progress in qualifying advanced probe cards for GPUs, with expectations for positive updates in the second half of the year [72][73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, revenues were $171.4 million, a decrease of 9.6% from Q4 and an increase of 1.6% year-over-year [16] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q1 was 39.2%, down from 40.2% in Q4 [18] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q1 was $0.23, down from $0.27 in Q4 [23] - GAAP net income for Q1 was $6.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to $9.7 million, or $0.12 per diluted share in Q4 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Probe card segment revenues were $136.5 million in Q1, a decrease of 9.2% from Q4, driven by lower DRAM and Flash revenues [17] - Foundry and Logic revenues increased by 2.4% to $85 million in Q1, representing 49.8% of total revenues [17] - DRAM revenues were $48.9 million in Q1, down 22.8% from Q4, comprising 28.5% of total revenues [17] - Systems segment revenues were $34.8 million in Q1, a decrease from Q4, but expected to see moderate growth in Q2 [12][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates double-digit sequential revenue growth in Q2, driven by demand from hyperscalers and investments in generative AI [5] - HBM probe card demand is expected to increase due to ongoing shipments for existing HBM3E designs and new HBM4 designs [8] - The company has seen a reduction in revenue from China due to tariffs and export controls, validating its decision to divest operations in that region [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying its customer base and product offerings, particularly in HBM and advanced packaging [38] - A recent acquisition of FICT Limited enhances the company's access to multilayer organic substrates, crucial for advanced foundry and logic probe cards [11] - The company aims to achieve $2 of non-GAAP EPS on $850 million of revenue, with a target gross margin of 47% [15][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current geopolitical and tariff environment creates uncertainty, impacting revenue and gross margins [5][6] - The anticipated growth in Q2 is not expected to be driven by tariff-related order acceleration, but rather by genuine demand increases [5] - The company is taking a cautious approach to capital investments in light of evolving geopolitical conditions [24] Other Important Information - The company generated free cash flow of $6.3 million in Q1, down from $28.8 million in Q4, primarily due to lower profitability [23] - A new two-year share repurchase program of $75 million has been approved by the Board of Directors [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on revenue and margins - Management confirmed an estimated mid single-digit million dollar reduction in revenues due to tariffs, particularly affecting multinational customers outside free trade zones [29][30] Question: Customer dynamics and revenue contributions - A former top customer has returned to the list, indicating increased activity in the client PC space, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue [36][37] Question: DRAM business outlook - The growth in DRAM revenue is primarily driven by HBM, with expectations for continued strength in HBM3 and new contributions from HBM4 [41][42] Question: Systems sales and demand visibility - While visibility for individual orders is low, there is better long-term visibility for systems demand, particularly related to co-package optics [101]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the HBM4 specification by JEDEC is a significant advancement for AI training hardware developers, offering enhanced memory performance and density crucial for processing large datasets and complex computations in applications like generative AI and high-performance computing [1][3]. Summary by Sections HBM4 Overview - HBM4 provides a memory performance of 2TB/s and a density of up to 64GB, which is essential for applications requiring efficient processing of large datasets [1][3]. - The bandwidth of HBM4 is double that of HBM3, achieved by increasing the frequency to 8Gb/s and doubling the data width to 2048 bits [3]. Key Features of HBM4 - Higher Bandwidth: HBM4 supports over 1TB/s per stack, significantly surpassing DDR4's 25.6GB/s per module, which is critical for workloads needing rapid data access [7]. - Higher Memory Density: HBM4's vertical stacking architecture allows for greater memory density in a smaller physical footprint compared to traditional DDR memory [7]. - Energy Efficiency: HBM4 typically consumes 40% to 50% less power than DDR4 at equivalent bandwidths, enhancing performance while reducing power consumption [7]. Applications of HBM4 - HBM4 plays a crucial role in AI and machine learning applications that require high-speed processing of massive datasets, improving the performance of AI accelerators [9]. - In high-performance computing and scientific simulations, HBM4 significantly accelerates computation speeds and reduces memory bottlenecks, enhancing the efficiency of supercomputers and HPC clusters [9]. Challenges in HBM4 Deployment - High Production Costs: The advanced architecture of HBM4 results in higher manufacturing costs compared to traditional memory solutions [12]. - Complex System Integration: HBM4 requires proximity to CPUs or GPUs, complicating system design and integration for manufacturers [12]. - Thermal Management Issues: The high data transfer rates generate more heat, necessitating sophisticated cooling systems to maintain stable performance [13]. Workflow Advantages of HBM4 - HBM4 supports advanced multitasking environments, accelerating data processing between CPUs and memory, which is beneficial for running multiple virtual machines or complex workflows [14]. - Its compact design allows for higher memory density in space-constrained high-performance systems, providing greater flexibility in system design [14]. Future Trends of HBM4 - The future development of HBM4 may focus on integration with emerging technologies like quantum computing and next-generation AI accelerators, enhancing its role in supporting innovative applications [16]. - Efforts to reduce production costs and simplify system integration are expected to drive broader adoption in commercial and consumer markets [16].