What did you take from this data point as we are trying to put together that picture amid a government shutdown with a lack of data. Yeah, if you look at it empirically, the ADP data doesn't have a ton of correlation to the official government jobs report. So I wouldn't read a ton into that.But I think it is broadly consistent with some of the other more official data sources that we have been seeing. And I think that it indicates over the last couple of months a real pullback in the labor market, that when ...

A growing group of first-time homebuyers are benefiting from New Zealand’s almost four-year housing downturn that’s made homes more affordable https://t.co/Eonhg8WNGJ ...

Democratic sweep of elections around the country last week included the city of Cincinnati, Ohio, where the brother of Vice President JD Vance, a guy named Corey Bowman, was a Republican candidate for mayor and he was trounced defeated by the incumbent mayor Afab Perval, a Democrat in a 78 to 22% landslide. Now, one question with his victory and that of the other Democratic mayors in Ohio might tell us about next year's elections when Ohio voters will be casting ballots for both governor and US senator. Do ...

RT towelie (@towelie719)even looking at the correlation (r=0.91) between immigrants and housing affordability, they follow the same patterns. if they artificially increase the population, especially unchecked like it is, then demand goes up, causing house prices to go up. same thing with insurance and healthcare cost. we cannot have an inventory of houses, nor insurance and healthcare to meet the growing ARTIFICAL GROWTH of our population without the increase in demand causing unaffordabilityhttps://t.co/3L ...

The 50-year mortgage is how they're making homes more "affordable" for young people, without lowering asset prices for boomers.Housing makes up 60% of the average American's portfolio—it is politically protected.More homes would mean lost elections. So, debt slavery it is.Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti):This barely moves the needle on housing affordability.A $500k mortgage would be ~$3,160/mo over 30 years and $2,793/mo over 50 years.Just an 11% reduction in the monthly payment + an additional $538,200 in inter ...

Economic Overview - The current economic landscape shows signs of a quiet renegotiation rather than a crash, with companies adapting to changing consumer behaviors and economic pressures [3] Housing Market - D.R. Horton is utilizing mortgage rate buydowns to maintain sales in a challenging housing market, with nearly 75% of buyers opting for discounted rates around 3.99%, leading to a gross margin drop to 20% [4] Banking Sector - TD Bank is closing 51 branches as part of a strategy to reduce its physical footprint by about 10%, focusing on digital services while maintaining over 1,000 branches [6] Restaurant Industry - Bloomin' Brands has closed 10 Outback Steakhouse locations across eight states due to rising costs and cautious consumer spending, with the company attempting to relocate affected workers [7] Technology and AI - Investor Michael Burry is shorting shares of Nvidia and Palantir, raising concerns about a potential bubble in AI stocks, despite significant gains of over 50% for Nvidia and over 100% for Palantir this year [8] Fast Food Sector - McDonald's reported a nearly double-digit decline in traffic from lower-income customers, prompting the company to introduce value deals to attract this demographic [9] Streaming Services - YouTube TV is offering a $10 monthly credit for six months to select users after dropping Disney channels, but the credit is not automatically applied, leading to customer frustration [10] Aviation Industry - Beta Technologies, an electric aircraft manufacturer, went public with an IPO priced at $34 per share, raising over $1 billion and achieving a valuation of approximately $7.4 billion [11][12] Education Technology - Duolingo's third-quarter results showed a 36% increase in daily active users and a 41% rise in revenue, yet the stock fell 25% due to expectations of slower growth in future bookings [13] Airline Industry - Major airlines, including United, American, and Delta, are offering refunds during the government shutdown, which has led to a 10% reduction in flights at major airports [14]

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)US housing affordability has never been worse:The US home price-to-income ratio is now up to a record 4.4x.This means the average single-family home now costs over 4 TIMES what the median household earns.This has even surpassed the 2006 Housing Bubble peak of 4.1x.The ratio has risen by +1.2 points, or +38% since 2011.During this period, home prices have surged +139% while median household income has increased +68%.Housing affordability is horrible at best. ...

Core Insights - San Francisco housing costs have returned to "normal" levels, but this normality does not equate to affordability for most middle-class homebuyers [1][3] Housing Market Analysis - Redfin's baseline for "normal" housing prices is based on the U.S. housing market in July 2018, when the average home in San Francisco was valued at approximately $1.3 million [2][4] - The surge in Big Tech wealth has historically driven San Francisco real estate prices significantly higher, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for the middle class [3][6] Interest Rates and Affordability - In July 2018, interest rates were around 4%, and the nationwide median monthly mortgage payment-to-income ratio was about 30%, indicating a more manageable housing market [4][5] - The mortgage payment-to-income ratio in San Francisco was over 74% in July 2018, but it has improved to 67% seven years later due to a slowdown in home prices and rising incomes [6]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales reached a seven-month high in September, driven primarily by higher-income households benefiting from stock market gains [1][4] - Despite a decline in mortgage rates to one-year lows, affordability remains a significant challenge for lower and middle-income buyers, compounded by economic uncertainty and a stagnant labor market [2][7] Sales Performance - Home sales increased by 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, the highest since February, with a year-over-year increase of 4.1% [4][5] - Sales of homes priced at $1 million and above surged by 20.2% year-over-year, while homes in the $750,000-$1 million range rose by 14.4%. In contrast, sales in the $100,000-$250,000 range only increased by 6.0% [8] Economic Outlook - Economists predict that existing home sales will stabilize through the end of this year and into early next year, with improvements expected in 2026 as mortgage rates decline further and the economy strengthens [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently at 6.19%, down from 7.04% in January, but this has not significantly boosted demand for home purchase loans, as many homeowners are refinancing instead [6][7] Market Context - Housing contributes less than 5% to the U.S. economy, and recent reports indicate little change in economic activity, with muted demand for labor [9]

Core Insights - U.S. existing home sales reached a seven-month high in September, increasing by 1.5% to an annual rate of 4.06 million units, the highest since February [1][2] - The increase in home sales is attributed to falling mortgage rates and improving housing affordability, despite rising economic uncertainty and a stalled labor market [2][3] Sales Performance - Home sales rose 4.1% year-over-year, with increases noted in the Northeast, South, and West regions, while the Midwest experienced a decline [2] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is at a one-year low of 6.27%, down from 7.04% in January, contributing to the rise in sales [2] Economic Context - A government shutdown has delayed the release of official economic data, including the employment report for September, leading to concerns about muted hiring due to economic uncertainty [3] - The shutdown has also affected real estate transactions, particularly in flood-prone areas where necessary insurance is unavailable [4] Inventory and Pricing - The inventory of existing homes increased by 14.0% year-over-year to 1.550 million units, although it remains below pre-pandemic levels [4] - The median existing home price rose by 2.1% year-over-year to $415,200, with current inventory expected to last 4.6 months at the September sales pace [5] Market Dynamics - Properties stayed on the market for an average of 33 days, up from 28 days a year ago, indicating a slight slowdown in sales velocity [6] - First-time buyers represented 30% of sales, an increase from 26% a year ago, though a 40% share is considered necessary for a robust housing market [6]