Home Price Trends - Home prices are fractionally lower year-over-year and down 1.4% in the last 3 months [1] - National home prices haven't been negative since mid-2023 [1] - Certain markets are seeing significant price drops, such as Austin (-10%), Denver (-5%), Tampa and Houston (-4%), and Atlanta (-3%) [1] - Other markets are seeing gains, including Cleveland (+6%), Chicago and New York City (+5%), Philadelphia (+3%), and Pittsburgh and Boston (+2%) [1] Market Analysis & Forecast - Parcel Labs' base case is that prices will hover around zero with small positive or negative year-over-year changes, rather than the double-digit gains of the pandemic era [1] - Home prices are influenced by mortgage rates and the broader health of the economy [2] - Supply will also play a role in home prices [2] Data & Methodology - Home price reporting is challenging due to different measurement methods [1] - Parcel uses a high-tech method for measuring home prices, which is considered current and accurate [1] - Measuring prices compared with the same time a year ago is important due to housing seasonality [1]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. reported mixed results for Q4 fiscal 2025, with adjusted earnings missing estimates while total revenues exceeded expectations and increased year-over-year [1][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $4.58, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.87 by 5.9% and down 1.1% from the previous year [4]. - Total revenues reached $3.42 billion, surpassing the consensus mark of $3.32 billion and reflecting a 2.7% increase year-over-year [4]. - Home sales revenues increased by 4.6% to $3.41 billion, with home deliveries rising by 0.3% to 3,443 units [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) of homes delivered was $991,600, up 4.4% from $950,200 a year ago [5]. Market Conditions - The company continues to face soft demand across several markets, but maintains a resilient business model with a balance of build-to-order and spec homes [2]. - Elevated mortgage rates and a weak housing market are significant headwinds impacting performance [2]. Contracts and Backlog - Net-signed contracts decreased to 2,598 units, down from 2,658 units year-over-year, with a total value of $2.5 billion, down from $2.7 billion [6]. - The backlog at the end of Q4 was 4,647 homes, a decrease of 22.5% year-over-year, with potential revenues from backlog declining 15.4% to $5.5 billion [7]. Cost Management - Adjusted home sales gross margin was 25.5%, contracting by 50 basis points [8]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses as a percentage of home sales revenues remained flat at 8.3% [8]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.26 billion, down from $1.3 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [11]. - The debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 26% from 26.7% [11]. - The company repurchased approximately 5.4 million shares for $651.6 million during fiscal 2025 [12]. Future Guidance - For Q1 fiscal 2026, home deliveries are expected to be between 1,800-1,900 units, with an average price of $985,000-$995,000 [13]. - For fiscal 2026, home deliveries are anticipated to be in the range of 10,300-10,700 units, reflecting a decline from fiscal 2025 [15]. - The company expects an adjusted home sales gross margin of 26%, down from 27.3% in fiscal 2025 [15].

All right, here's the question the audience wants to know this morning. I'm looking at mortgage rates for the 30 years, 6.36%. Does a Fed rate cut, does it finally bring the rates lower.Because we've seen cuts and the rates have actually moved higher. >> You know, I think people are expecting this cut. This will be the third one this year and I don't think it's going to make a dramatic difference.Could it eventually help a little bit, but it's not going to be anything substantial. So, I don't think it's any ...

Market Transition - The housing market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, marking the first shift in at least a decade [3] - Sellers are hesitant to lower prices due to concerns about not being able to pay off their mortgages, a situation unseen in 10-15 years [3][11] - The market is expected to remain in limbo until around the time of the Super Bowl, as people pack it in for the holidays and wait to see what direction the housing market will take [5] Factors Influencing Market Behavior - Macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility are causing people to hesitate on making 30-year commitments to new homes [5][6] - Lower interest rates, especially if they drop below 6%, would help the market [6] - Home prices need to adjust, as sales volume is down as much as 50% in some markets, but prices remain relatively stable, creating a standoff between buyers and sellers [7] Regional Cold Spots - Areas that were previously hot, like Florida and Texas, are now experiencing the most stale listings [12] - Over 70% of listings in Florida are stale [11] - The Washington DC area has seen a sharp increase in stale listings, potentially due to government uncertainty [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts to alleviate high borrowing costs and support labor market recovery [1][2][7]. Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran advocates for large interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral monetary policy quickly, arguing that current rates are restrictive and detrimental to economic growth [2][5]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided on the necessity of further rate cuts, with discussions ongoing about the impact of a softening labor market and persistent inflation [2][3]. Interest Rate Cuts - Miran suggests a series of 50 basis point cuts, citing recent positive job data and low inflationary risks as justification for this approach [5][6]. - The Fed has already implemented two rate cuts this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3]. Labor Market and Unemployment - The rising unemployment rate is attributed to tight monetary policy, and Miran expresses concern that failure to cut rates could hinder labor market recovery [6][7]. - Miran emphasizes the need for a forward-looking approach in policy-making to address the challenges in the labor market [7]. Housing Market - Miran highlights the importance of easing mortgage rates, noting that while financial conditions may appear loose due to the stock market, the housing market remains tight [8]. - He believes that cutting interest rates will eventually lead to improved financial conditions in the housing market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Boise Cascade Company (NYSE:BCC) is facing challenges due to its connection to the housing market, which is currently underperforming. The company is considered too leveraged to a specific segment of the market, making it less favorable compared to larger home improvement retailers, especially in the context of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Boise Cascade Company manufactures engineered wood products and plywood, and distributes building materials such as lumber, siding, roofing, and millwork [2]. - Third Avenue Management has initiated new positions in Boise Cascade Company, indicating interest in the building materials distributor and manufacturer [2].

Core Insights - U.S. pending home sales decreased by 0.3% year-over-year for the four weeks ending November 9, marking the first decline in four months [1] - Homes are taking longer to sell, with a median of 49 days to go under contract, the longest duration for this time of year since 2019 [2] - The housing market is experiencing a higher number of sellers compared to buyers, with new listings up 3.4% year-over-year [4] Market Demand and Activity - The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.29% as of November 12, up from 6.13% two weeks prior, but down from 7.02% a year ago [6] - The median home-sale price rose by 2.4% year-over-year, the largest increase in six months, while the median asking price increased by 2.6% [9] - More than 20% of Americans are delaying major purchases due to economic uncertainty, with 15% canceling such purchases altogether [6] Buyer Behavior - Many potential buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to fall below 6% before making a purchase, indicating sensitivity to interest rates and home prices [5] - The share of homes sold above the list price decreased to 22.8%, down from 25% [9] - The average sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.3%, indicating a slight decline in competitive bidding [9] Regional Insights - The housing market shows significant regional variations, with some metros experiencing notable increases in median sale prices, such as Philadelphia (9.8%) and Detroit (9.7%) [11] - Conversely, areas like Seattle saw a substantial decline in median sale prices, down 19.2% [11] - New listings in markets like Phoenix and Cincinnati increased significantly, while others like Jacksonville and San Antonio saw declines [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated third-quarter sales were $1.7 billion, down 3% from the third quarter of 2024 [3] - Net income was $21.8 million, or $0.58 per share, compared to $91 million, or $2.33 per share, in the year-ago quarter [3] - Gross margin for the third quarter was 15.1%, a 60 basis point year-over-year decline [8] - BMD's EBITDA margin was 4.5% for the quarter, down from 5.6% in the year-ago quarter [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wood product sales in the third quarter were $396.4 million, down 13% compared to the third quarter of 2024 [5] - BMD sales in the quarter were $1.6 billion, down 1% from the third quarter of 2024 [5] - I-Joist and LVL volumes were down 10% and 7% respectively compared to the year-ago quarter [6] - Plywood sales volume was $387 million compared to $391 million in the third quarter of 2024 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. housing starts increased 2% year-over-year, while single-family housing starts decreased 3% [3] - BMD's year-over-year third-quarter sales decline of 1% was driven by a 1% decrease in price, with sales volumes flat [8] - BMD's daily sales pace in October was approximately 5% below the third-quarter sales pace [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on a two-step distribution model and enhancing its market-leading EWP and plywood franchises [4] - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 2025 were $187 million, with a commitment to a capital spending range of $230 million to $250 million for 2025 [10][11] - The company is expanding its market-leading national distribution presence, including the opening of a new distribution center in Texas [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects demand weakness, trade policy uncertainties, and seasonal factors to influence financial results in the fourth quarter [13] - Early industry projections for 2026 are consistent with 2025 housing starts levels, with gradual improvement expected later in the year [17] - The company anticipates that prices for EWP have bottomed and expects to move prices higher as 2026 progresses [18] Other Important Information - The company paid $27 million in regular dividends in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, and has authorized up to $300 million for share repurchases [12] - The company is focused on maintaining a balanced capital deployment strategy, investing in existing assets while pursuing growth opportunities [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about share gains in the general line part of the business? - Management noted that demand held up well in general line product categories due to significant investments in capacity and partnerships with suppliers [21][22] Question: Can you discuss competitive dynamics in EWP and pricing confidence? - Management indicated that prices have stabilized and they expect to see improvements in pricing as demand recovers [25][28] Question: What are the constraints for generating higher margins in BMD? - Management expressed confidence in maintaining gross margins above 15% and highlighted the importance of enriching the product mix [32][34] Question: How is the company planning to balance M&A with share repurchases? - Management stated that their priorities remain investing in existing assets and pursuing organic growth, with share repurchases being active in the absence of meaningful M&A [72]

Core Insights - Pending home sales in September remained unchanged from August and decreased by 9% year-over-year, contrary to market expectations of a 1% increase [1] - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was between 6.4% and 6.5% in September, slightly higher than the current rate of 6.1% [2] - Regional sales showed mixed results, with increases in the Northeast and South, while the Midwest and West experienced declines [2] - Housing inventory reached a five-year high, although it remains historically low [3] - The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors indicated that despite a record high stock market and increasing housing wealth, these factors were insufficient to counteract a potentially weakening job market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 7% year over year, reaching $1.10, driven by a record third quarter non-GAAP operating margin of 10.8% [4][5] - Total net sales in the third quarter increased by 3% organically compared to the same period last year [5] - Non-GAAP operating margin expanded by 10 basis points year over year, marking the highest EBIT margin for the third quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the workplace furnishings segment, organic net sales increased by 3% year over year, with a non-GAAP segment operating profit margin exceeding 12% [5][6] - Residential building products revenue was roughly unchanged year over year, with new construction revenue down slightly and remodel retrofit sales growing modestly [6] - Orders in the residential building products segment increased by 2% year over year, with remodel retrofit orders up mid-single digits [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Builder sentiment has weakened recently, reflecting elevated interest rates and affordability issues, with permits moving lower [8] - The office space market is showing signs of recovery, with net absorption expected to be the highest since 2019, indicating improved demand for office furniture [11] - 18 of the largest U.S. markets are exceeding pre-pandemic leasing activity, suggesting a positive trend for workplace furnishings [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on margin expansion efforts and continued revenue growth while investing for future growth [7][15] - The pending acquisition of Steelcase is expected to create synergies of $120 million and accretion of $1.20 per share when fully mature [19] - The company is optimistic about long-term market fundamentals in residential building products, despite a soft new construction environment [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a fourth consecutive year of double-digit non-GAAP EPS growth, supported by strong third quarter performance and ongoing visibility [18] - The macro and industry backdrops are improving, with expectations for the contract business to benefit from these trends [12] - Management remains cautious about ongoing macro-related risks and tariff-driven volatility but is optimistic about future growth opportunities [18] Other Important Information - The company anticipates fourth quarter revenue in workplace furnishings to increase at a high single-digit rate year over year, with residential building products also projected to grow at a high single-digit rate [16] - The company is committed to maintaining its dividend while investing in business growth [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the $1.20 of accretion from Steelcase considering just the synergies outlined? - Yes, the $120 million in synergies translates to about $1.20 in accretion based on share count [23][25] Question: Where are you in terms of the $0.75 to $0.80 from KI and Mexico? - The company expects to recognize $45 to $50 million between 2025 and 2026, with more expected in 2025 than 2026 [28] Question: How does the current industry volume compare to pre-pandemic levels? - The company estimates that industry-wide volumes are still down by 30% to 35% compared to pre-pandemic levels, but there is potential for mid-single-digit volume growth in the coming years [31][32] Question: Can you compare your full-year guidance with previous expectations? - Revenue expectations remain in line with prior expectations, but there is some pressure on product mix and timing of investments [34][36] Question: How much runway do you have for growth in residential building products? - The company believes it can outperform the market due to ongoing investments and strong relationships with builders [37] Question: What risks are associated with integrating Steelcase? - The company plans to maintain dealer partnerships and brand distribution intact, which should allow for participation in any demand upswing [39]