新华财经北京2月5日电4日，英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）以5:4的投票结果，决定维持3.75%的基 准利率不变，另有4名委员主张将利率下调0.25个百分点至3.5%。这是该行连续第六次维持利率不变， 上一次降息发生在 2024 年8月。当前政策利率较峰值已累计下调150个基点。 通胀走势： 2025年12月英国CPI通胀率为3.4%，虽仍高于2%的目标，但较9月峰值回落0.4个百分点。 报告预计，受2025年预算案中的能源补贴政策及批发天然气价格下跌影响，通胀将从4月起加速回落， 2026年二季度有望降至2.1%，接近目标水平。能源账单减免、燃油税减免延长等措施是通胀下行的主 要推手。 经济增长： MPC强调，货币政策的核心目标是确保通胀不仅回归2%，更能在中期持续稳定在该水平。当前通胀粘 性风险已显著减弱，但需求疲软和劳动力市场宽松可能导致通胀低于目标的风险仍存。 报告指出，未来仍有可能进一步降息，但决策将更趋谨慎，具体幅度和时点完全取决于通胀前景。若通 胀压力持续缓解，利率大概率继续下行；但若降息过快或幅度过大，可能导致通胀粘性，反之则可能加 剧经济下行风险。 此外，AI技术应用、全球贸易政策变动、能 ...

The historic collapse in gold and silver prices on Friday sparked a brutal selloff across mining stocks, as markets aggressively unwound one of January's most crowded trades.As of 2:00 p.m. in New York, silver was down 27% to $84 an ounce, while gold slid 9.5% to $4,861. Both moves marked the worst single-day declines since 1980 for the two metals.The selloff was just as violent in exchange-traded products tracking precious metals performance. The brutal collapse reflects a sharp repricing of monetary risk ...

Core Insights - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair could lead to a less aggressive approach to interest rate cuts compared to his rival Kevin Hassett [2][8] - Betting markets indicate a 60% chance for Warsh's nomination and a 15% chance for Hassett, following Trump's comments favoring Hassett's current position [3][4] - The selection of the new Fed chair is crucial as it will significantly impact monetary policy and the federal funds rate, affecting borrowing costs [5][10] Group 1: Candidates and Their Positions - Kevin Warsh has gained momentum as the front-runner for the Fed chair position, with Trump expressing a desire to keep Hassett in his current role [2][8] - Hassett is viewed as the most aggressive rate-cutter among the candidates, aligning closely with Trump's views on monetary policy [6][14] - Warsh, while advocating for lower rates, is perceived as less dovish than Hassett, indicating a potential moderation in rate-cutting policies [7][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The new Fed chair will face the challenge of balancing a slowing job market against persistent inflation, which is currently above the Fed's 2% target [10][11] - Fed officials are expected to maintain steady interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts [12][13] - Political pressures from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility in managing inflation [13][14]

Key Takeaways If the Trump Administration's investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was intended to intimidate the central bank into sharply cutting interest rates, it's not going as planned. At least four Fed officials who set interest rates spoke out this week in defense of Powell and the Fed's duty to make monetary policy decisions in the public interest rather than at the White House's command. Traders subsequently priced in lower chances of rate cuts early in the year. "Any place where y ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell aims to leave the economy in good shape before his term ends in May 2026, focusing on controlling inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1][2][4] - Powell has not indicated whether he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his term, emphasizing his focus on his current responsibilities [4] - The question of succession is significant as President Trump considers potential candidates for the next Fed chair, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett being the leading options [6][8] Group 2 - Trump expressed his desire for the next Fed chair to be honest about interest rates, stating that the U.S. should have the lowest rates in the world [8]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5-3.75%, which has led to a rally in U.S. stocks [1][3][9] - The Fed's decision comes despite ongoing high inflation, indicating a shift in focus towards supporting economic growth [4][5] - The Fed projects inflation to slow to 2.4% and economic growth to accelerate to 2.3% by the end of 2026, which is seen as positive for the broader market [6] 分组2 - Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) has an expected earnings growth rate of 17.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 29.5% over the last 60 days [7] - Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) is expected to see a 30% earnings growth rate this year, with a 10.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [8] - Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is projected to have an earnings growth rate of over 100% for the current year, with an 83.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [10] - Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) has an expected earnings growth rate of 12.5%, with a slight improvement of 0.7% in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [11]

After today, you only have three more meetings at the helm of the Fed since becoming Fed Chair. You've seen multiple [clears throat] trade wars, the pandemic, COVID reopening, period of high inflation. I know your term's not up as chair until May, but I'm wondering if you've given any thought to what you want your legacy to be.>> My legacy. I my [clears throat] thought is that um I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me in with the economy in really good shape. That's what I want to do.I w ...

Core Insights - The establishment of a rare earth mineral processing center in South Carolina marks a significant step towards reducing reliance on China for rare earth materials, with production starting this week [1][2] - This facility is the first U.S. plant to produce rare earth magnets in 25 years, indicating a potential shift in the domestic manufacturing landscape [2] - The project has created 300 permanent jobs and involved 800 construction jobs, showcasing its impact on local employment [6][7] Industry Developments - The facility, operated by EVAC, is positioned as a critical player in the U.S. rare earth supply chain, which has been historically dominated by China [1][6] - The rapid permitting process in South Carolina, taking only 8 weeks, highlights a supportive regulatory environment for manufacturing initiatives [3] - The potential for expansion of the facility is significant, with plans to increase its size by 6 to 10 times, indicating strong growth prospects [8] Economic Implications - The project aligns with national security interests by reducing dependence on foreign sources for essential materials used in various technologies, including military applications [4][5] - The focus on high-paying manufacturing jobs is part of a broader strategy to enhance economic security and improve real wages for American workers [8][12] - The administration's trade policies are credited with fostering an environment conducive to the growth of such manufacturing facilities, aiming to replicate successes from previous terms [13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, indicating that inflation is under control and European businesses are managing the impact of higher U.S. tariffs better than expected [1][7]. Economic Growth and Competitiveness - Despite a modest growth outlook, concerns about Europe's economic competitiveness are rising, particularly in light of increasing competition from China and higher U.S. tariffs [3][4]. - Recent surveys indicate a modest upswing in European business activity at the start of the fourth quarter, with a growth of 0.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter and a 1.3% increase year-over-year [6]. Inflation Control - Inflation was recorded at 2.2% in September, slightly above the ECB's target of 2%, leading analysts to suggest that the ECB may not change rates again until next year [7]. Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB's current stance contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has recently cut rates to support growth amid elevated inflation [8]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that while the monetary policy is in a good place, it is not fixed, and future decisions will be data-driven [5].

Core Viewpoint - James Bullard, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, expressed interest in becoming the central bank chair under favorable conditions, emphasizing the importance of defending the dollar's reserve currency status, maintaining low inflation, and protecting the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Fed Chair Replacement - The Trump administration is actively interviewing candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, whose term ends next May [2]. - Bullard has had discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the Fed chair position and other related issues [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% due to inflation pressures exceeding the 2% target, which are expected to rise further due to Trump's trade tariffs [3]. - The Fed is anticipated to cut its interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point in an upcoming meeting, with expectations of further reductions later [4][5]. - Bullard predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut rates by 25 basis points and signal additional easing measures, with markets pricing in a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year [5].