Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare event occurred in the market where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs from E Fund and Jiashi, experienced a collective surge, with many products hitting the daily limit up [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Multiple LOF products announced suspension of trading after a week of rapid price increases, indicating a strong market reaction [2][8]. - Key LOF products that hit the daily limit include E Fund Oil LOF, Jiashi Oil LOF, and several others, with price increases around 10% [2][3]. - The WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase, the highest since September 2025 [5]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - High premium rates and strong market sentiment contributed to the surge in oil-related LOFs, with investors utilizing the "off-market subscription + on-market sale" arbitrage mechanism [4][6]. - The trading volume for the oil LOF products was significant, with some experiencing a turnover rate of 38.33% [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - Several fund companies announced collective suspensions of resource-related LOFs to warn investors about the risks associated with high trading premiums [8][9]. - Starting January 30, the daily subscription limit for certain oil LOFs was drastically reduced to as low as 2 yuan, indicating tighter controls on fund inflows [6][10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that the high premium rates could lead to significant losses for investors if international oil prices decline or if there is a withdrawal of arbitrage funds [8][9]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious due to the potential for rapid price corrections [9].

27 January 2026 | 11:08PM HKT Economics Research China: PBOC Q4 Surveys: Lower loan demand, but slightly more willingness to consume and better employment sentiment Bottom line: PBOC released its Q4 surveys of bank loan officers, enterprises, and urban depositors on January 23. The latest data paint a mixed picture, with weakening credit demand and household price expectations but a marginal improvement in employment sentiment. PBOC's bank survey suggests loan demand fell in Q4, especially among large enter ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].